PROTECTIONISM IS BACK, AND RECESSION COULD FOLLOW, MORGAN STANLEY SAYS President Trump's policies amount to a return of protectionism, with the effective tariff on U.S. imports potentially rising to 22%, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a research note. That would mark levels not seen in a century and more than double what the analysts expected coming into the year, they write. "We doubt that tariffs will alter the deficit in the current account," the note reads. "In the short run, protectionism equals isolationism. Higher inflation, lower growth." The analysts say that the risk of a recession has risen sharply.