QCP： This market rebound may be driven by real spot demand rather than leverage

According to BlockBeats, on March 24th, QCP released a daily market observation stating that the cryptocurrency market experienced a mild rebound over the weekend, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) breaking through the $85000 and $2000 thresholds, respectively. This recovery seems to be led by the stock market, with stock futures showing a strong rebound. Although concerns about an economic recession still exist, Powell's cautious remarks at last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting helped calm investors' emotions. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has improved from 32% last week to 45% this week (49% neutral), reflecting a general easing of risk aversion sentiment. A significant highlight comes from the inflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which purchased 8775 bitcoins (equivalent to $744 million) last week, with a significant increase. This marks a clear reversal after several weeks of net outflows, indicating early signs of liquidity beginning to flow back into the cryptocurrency market. Due to the still low open interest (OI) of perpetual contracts and flat funding rates, this rebound seems to be driven by real spot demand rather than leverage, which is a key difference as leverage driven gains often suddenly fall back during liquidation. However, despite the renewed momentum of ETFs and today's continued rise, we remain cautious about the prospect of sustained breakthroughs in the upward trend. The tariff escalation scheduled to take effect on April 2 may once again put pressure on risk assets. At the same time, the options market reflects a more neutral wait-and-see attitude, with implied volatility tending to decrease and risk reversals across all maturities flattening, in stark contrast to the more pronounced bearish bias observed a week ago. We will closely monitor whether this week's recovery will repeat the price trend of last Monday, when cryptocurrencies rose on Sunday but quickly fell back within 48 hours