Whales' Market Wrap: Mar 5, 2025 BTC 30D ATM IV: 57.07% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 70.22% | SOL 21D ATM IV: 122.01% SPX 30D ATM IV: 18.47% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 23.45% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 15.88% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 7.56% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.93% The significantly lower-than-expected ADP employment data and the continued deterioration of GDP data have increased investors' concerns about recession expectations. However, concerns about policy uncertainty are relatively heavier. Investors' overall expectations have not changed much, but the volatility pricing for Mar 8 has increased significantly, mainly due to the White House Crypto Summit. As investors expect the recession to prompt the Federal Reserve to relax its policies, the expected time to complete three interest rate cuts this year has been brought forward to the end of October, which is generally good for the crypto market. Bitfinex ETH/BTC whale bulls have not shown signs of closing their positions, and their long size is second only to the end of 2020. In the current environment, ETH's market share is still shrinking. Although there may be some improvement in price performance in the future, more interest rate cuts are still a hard prerequisite for ETH and altcoins to return to the bull market rhythm.