Introduction: This Thursday, the main suppliers of global AI chip foundry will present their third quarter results. TSMC's capital expenditure directly affects the order expectations of equipment manufacturers such as ASML and Applied Materials, and the expansion pace of CoWoS advanced packaging impacts the delivery capabilities of AI chips for customers like NVIDIA. For the entire AI infrastructure chain, this financial report and conference call serve as a concentrated progress check. In market terms, TSMC's US stock closed on Wednesday at $445.12, with a market value of about $2.3 trillion (market interface), roughly twice that of Samsung Electronics' market value (based on the closing price and exchange rate on that day). The Taiwan stock market fell by 1.97% to 2490 New Taiwan dollars on Tuesday. In the week before the earnings report, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just experienced four consecutive declines, and Broadcom's CEO reiterated that "capital is the greatest constraint," making the interpretation of this report more layered than in previous years. This article breaks down the questions that need to be answered during the conference call into three parts.

1. Market Forecasts for Continuous "Six Consecutive Quarters" of Profit Growth

Revenue has already come in. The company's preliminary data published last week shows that third quarter revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, exceeding the guidance range previously provided by the company, with September's monthly revenue nearing the historic record set in August. Fernando, the founder of Zero One, noted plainly that the company previously anticipated revenue growth of "slightly above 40%" in USD by 2026. If this expectation is maintained, the growth rate for the fourth quarter will only be one-third of the third quarter's guidance level, which is below the actual operational level of the business, thus increasing the likelihood of further upward adjustments to guidance (as reported by Jinshi Data and Zhituo Finance).

Expectations for profitability are even more uniform. LSEG SmartEstimate gathers forecasts from 16 analysts, predicting a net profit growth of about 65% year-on-year to 746.3 billion New Taiwan dollars for the third quarter. If it exceeds 706.56 billion New Taiwan dollars, it will set a new single-quarter record, achieving eleven consecutive quarters of profit growth (as reported by Reuters and others). Local firm estimates are slightly lower: one report estimates a gross margin of 67.1%, an operating margin of 58.1%, after-tax net profit of about 733 billion New Taiwan dollars, and earnings per share of about 28.27 New Taiwan dollars. Yuanta Investment Advisory has raised the third quarter EPS to 29.03 New Taiwan dollars, and expects fourth quarter revenue to increase by 10% to 15%, with EPS looking at 33.37 New Taiwan dollars, and EPS for 2026 and 2027 looking at 111.72 New Taiwan dollars and 157.29 New Taiwan dollars, respectively (as relayed by various media). Morgan Stanley's Chen Chia-Hong is aligned in direction, noting that driven by strong demand for 3nm, full-year revenue growth guidance may be adjusted from "slightly above 40%" to a low-to-mid 40% range. Ahead of the earnings report, Bank of America raised its target price for TSMC, arguing that the ramp-up of 2nm capacity boosts sales expectations and profit margins (reported by Futu, representing only the judgment of the related institution).

2. Capital Expenditure: The Real Divergence This Season

Revenue and EPS falling within the guidance range is merely "compliance"; the true divergence in this financial report lies in capital expenditure. In July, TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $52 to $56 billion up to $60 to $64 billion, an increase of about 7% to 14%, primarily for advanced processes and advanced packaging capacity. A summary from Seeking Alpha shows that the second quarter's capital expenditure was about $15.59 billion, roughly consistent with the annualized level of $64 billion executed for the entire year, with about 70% allocated to advanced processes, 10% to 20% to advanced packaging testing and photomasks, and 10% to special processes. Estimates for 2027 have already been uplifted, with Goldman Sachs raising its capital expenditure estimates for 2027 and 2028 to $85 billion, while Citi estimates about $81 billion for 2027 and about $90 billion for 2028 (as cited in research reports).

Why is capital expenditure guidance important? The order expectations of equipment manufacturers derive from foundry investment plans, and the expansion pace of advanced packaging such as CoWoS determines the delivery capacity of AI chips. Just last week, another voice emerged in the market; Broadcom's CEO Tan Hock Eng stated that capital is the greatest constraint on AI expansion. If TSMC maintains or increases its spending plans, it indicates that investment on the supply side is still accelerating. If the wording turns cautious, the impact of financing conditions on the spending pace will enter into the pricing for equipment manufacturers and AI chips. Different voices were raised ahead of the financial report; an analysis from Seeking Alpha downgraded TSMC's rating to hold, stating that faster capital expenditure is pressuring free cash flow; their calculations show total free cash flow for the first three quarters at about $37.8 billion, with about $28.9 billion needed in the last two quarters if the annual plan is executed at $64 billion (this viewpoint represents only the opinion of the article's author).

The market is particularly focused on the expansion pace of CoWoS capacity. As AI accelerators increase their demands for computational efficiency and memory bandwidth, advanced packaging remains a tight link on the supply side. According to public reports, TSMC is expanding its supply capability for silicon interposers in the US through partner GlobalFoundries, which is expected to begin volume production ramp-up in the first half of 2028. Amkor's advanced packaging facility in Arizona is planned to begin production in early 2028. Industry estimates suggest that TSMC's first advanced packaging plant in Arizona may start operations in the first half of 2028 at the earliest.

3. After Arizona, Is Texas the Next Stop?

The expansion layout is another focus of the conference call. TSMC plans to invest $265 billion in Arizona to build chip factories, which includes the newly announced $100 billion from July. According to a Reuters report in September, the company is evaluating the possibility of investing in Texas. Elon Musk stated last week that his company will build and operate an AI chip park called Terafab, and TSMC may lease part of the facilities. Other reports indicate that the two companies have discussed joint factory construction, confirmed by Musk on social media (exclusive coverage by Culpium and followed by subsequent media reporting), with participation details as disclosed by the company.

Two institutional judgments can be viewed side by side. Morgan Stanley believes that TSMC's customer demand is expected to continue to grow over the next five years, and given the limited space at the Arizona site, there is a high necessity to set up new production lines in Texas. Morningstar senior equity analyst Phelix Lee believes that TSMC's planned wafer fab in Arizona has not yet broken ground, and there is not a high urgency for entering Texas, which has a mature semiconductor industry cluster and talent reserve, making it more suitable for long-term expansion plans from the 2030s to 2040s. This viewpoint represents only the judgment of the related institution.

4. Three Variables to Monitor in the Conference Call

First, whether capital expenditure will be further increased. Whether the company executes at the upper limit of the $60 to $64 billion range set in July and whether a new investment framework is provided for 2027 directly determines the visibility of orders for equipment manufacturers and material suppliers.

Second, the specific timetable for CoWoS capacity expansion. The delivery bottleneck for AI chips lies in advanced packaging; the expansion speed of CoWoS is related to the shipment rhythm of customers like NVIDIA, also determining the growth slope of revenues in the advanced packaging segment.

Third, the full-year revenue growth guidance and the expression for 2027. Morgan Stanley expects the guidance to be adjusted to the low-to-mid 40% range; if management provides a more positive outlook, the profit expectations for the entire AI infrastructure chain will receive concentrated confirmation. If the expression is conservative, the market will need to reassess the growth rate for the fourth quarter and its alignment with the capital expenditure for 2027.

Comprehensively analyzing the market and public information, the market is focused on the realization of profit records and a positive expression of capital expenditure. The real suspense is whether the framework for 2027 will be given in advance. If the capital expenditure guidance falls at the lower end of the range and the CoWoS expression weakens, the interpretation of "AI infrastructure investment is still accelerating" requires correction.

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