Bitcoin's on-chain data is releasing new signals of a bull market. The latest market status model has maintained a net long position of 67% for the second consecutive month, marking a significant shift in the model's outlook to bullish after approximately ten months of a short position, as of September 1, 2026. Meanwhile, the short-term holder realized price, true market mean, MVRV, unrealized net profit and loss (NUPL), and value days destroyed (VDD) have all entered the bull market territory, forming the first synchronized bullish pattern since October 2025.
This change also echoes the previous cycle. On October 1, 2025, the model maintained a 100% net long position, but it subsequently dropped to 33% in November, further declined to zero in December, and remained on the sidelines for most of the pullback period. A similar situation occurred in the previous cycle: the model adjusted its signals downwards at the end of 2021, only to readjust upwards in April 2023. Now, with multiple on-chain indicators improving synchronously, the market status model is again releasing bullish signals.
Five key on-chain indicators collectively turn bullish: Bitcoin reclaims key cost levels
The short-term holder realized price is an important indicator for assessing the market state of Bitcoin. In October 2025, Bitcoin fell below the then short-term holder realized price of approximately $112,300, indicating that short-term holders were overall at a loss, resulting in weakened market momentum and sentiment. In August of this year, Bitcoin reclaimed this indicator at around $68,000, serving as an important signal for the market's turn to bullish.
Currently, the short-term holder realized price is at $74,319, while Bitcoin is priced at $83,345, about 12% higher. As long as Bitcoin maintains its price above this level, and the short-term holder realized price continues to trend upwards, the overall market is expected to sustain its bullish pattern.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also reclaimed the true market mean. Currently, this indicator is at $77,460, with Bitcoin's price exceeding it by about 7.6%. Compared to the short-term holder realized price, the changes in the true market mean are slower. Historically, if Bitcoin can consistently hold above this level, the probability of a sustained bull market is higher, and the longer it stays above, the greater the likelihood of a solid upward trend.
The third indicator, MVRV, has also entered the bull market territory, with the current reading at 0.20. During the bull market from 2023 to 2025, this indicator rarely rose above 0.3, making the current reading relatively strong. The positive value of MVRV further reinforces the on-chain signal of Bitcoin transitioning from bear to bull.
NUPL and VDD strengthen simultaneously: what signals does a 67% net long position release?
In addition to the three indicators mentioned above, unrealized net profit and loss (NUPL) has also turned positive, returning to the bullish territory for the first time since October 2025. This means that the overall profit situation of Bitcoin investors is improving, and profits typically encourage higher leverage and increase buying pressure; conversely, losses may gradually trigger stop-loss sell-offs, diminished market interest, and decreased trading volume.
Meanwhile, value days destroyed (VDD) has also turned bullish again, although starting relatively slowly. Unlike the short-term holder realized price, VDD reflects the holding behavior of long-term investors, making its changes more gradual and less sensitive to short-term pullbacks in a bull market. The simultaneous entry of all five on-chain indicators into the bull market territory further strengthens the overall bullish signal.
This also explains why the market status model ended its approximately ten-month short position on September 1, 2026, and has continued to maintain a 67% net long position for the second consecutive month. However, the model has not yet returned to a 100% full-position state because not all indicators have turned bullish; some indicators are only slightly above the bullish threshold.
Moving forward, the short-term holder realized price of $74,319 and the true market mean of $77,460 will become two key levels for assessing whether the upward trend can be sustained. A brief drop below either line does not necessarily change the market state; however, if both are continuously breached, it could signal a loss of momentum in the market's recovery.
Summary
Overall, the Bitcoin on-chain market state has shown a clear shift. The five key on-chain indicators have simultaneously entered the bull market territory for the first time since October 2025, and the market status model has reestablished a 67% net long position after a long period of observation. Considering historical cycle performance, on-chain data supports the judgment that a new market cycle began on September 1, 2026.
Nevertheless, the current model has not yet reached the full bullish level, and the market recovery still requires continuous confirmation from key on-chain indicators. Whether Bitcoin can hold the two important price levels of $74,319 and $77,460, as well as whether the short-term holder realized price can continue to maintain an upward trend, will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of this bullish market.
Glossary
Market Status Model A model that categorizes the market into different states such as bull and bear markets using a set of indicators and adjusts positions accordingly.
Net Long Position The proportion of long positions after deducting short positions, with 67% representing two-thirds of a full position; zero indicates a short position and observation.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price The average price at which Bitcoin held by short-term holders (typically investors who bought in the past 155 days) was last transferred on-chain, serving as the average cost for new entrants. When the Bitcoin price is above this level, this group of investors is generally in profit.
True Market Mean An indicator that measures the average holding cost of active investors. It excludes Bitcoin held by miners and cryptocurrencies that have not moved for years, making it change more slowly than the short-term holder realized price.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) Compares the market capitalization of Bitcoin with the realized market value, i.e., the total value of all Bitcoins calculated at the price of their last on-chain transfer. A higher reading indicates greater unrealized profits for holders on average.
Unrealized Net Profit and Loss (NUPL) The proportion of unrealized gains or losses in Bitcoin's market capitalization. A positive reading indicates that investors are overall profitable, while a negative reading indicates overall losses.
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Tracks the spending of Bitcoins that have been held for a long time, weighted by holding duration and value at the time of transfer. A higher reading indicates that long-term holders are taking profits.
Retracement The degree to which price falls from a previous high point, usually expressed as a percentage.
Leverage Borrowing funds to establish a position greater than one’s own capital, which magnifies both gains and losses.
Stop-Loss An order to automatically close a position when the price reaches a predetermined level, to limit losses.
The above opinions partly come from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the complete report from BIT on Target.
Disclaimer
The market involves risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets can carry high risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT does not bear responsibility for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
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