Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.68 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.8%, which is $1.6 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $304 billion, increasing by 0.61% over the last 7 days, with USDT holding a 60.29% share.
CoinMarketCap reports that among the top 200 projects, most are up while a small number are down, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 6.7%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 6.2%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 20.01%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 14.9%, and STX with a 7-day increase of 67.6%.
Market Forecast (August 31 - September 6):
The RSI index is at 50.3 (neutral), the Fear and Greed Index is at 72 (greedy), and the Altseason Index is at 36 (neutral).
This week, the cryptocurrency market entered a high-level consolidation after a historic short squeeze. BTC fluctuates around $80,000, and ETH and SOL follow but with weakening momentum, while HYPE performs relatively independently. The following are forecasts and risk warnings for the trend next week:
BTC: $74,000 - $88,000 ($74,000 is the key support level)
ETH: $2,200 - $2,700 (resistance level above at $27,000)
SOL: $90 - $115 (having broken through the annual downtrend line, stabilizing at $105, expected to continue breaking through)
HYPE: $65-$85 (driven by expectations of CFTC compliance path)
Risk Warnings:
Technical indicators are extremely overbought, pullbacks may happen at any time
After the surge, almost all mainstream coins' 4H and daily RSI indicators have entered the extreme overbought region (BTC 4H RSI 89.9, ETH 4H RSI 94.2). Historically, such levels of technical overheating often forewarn of short-term pullback pressure. Meanwhile, the weakness in US tech stocks, the strength of the dollar, and rising oil prices represent four macro signals that lean bearish, diverging from the upward trend of cryptocurrencies, which is not sustainable."Short fuel" is exhausted, it is uncertain whether spot buying will take over
This round of market movements has primarily been driven by forced liquidations of shorts (94% of liquidations in 24 hours were shorts), rather than the systematic entry of new funds. Currently, the US spot premium remains negative (-0.024%), indicating a lack of real spot buying to take over. The speed of stablecoin transfer to exchanges has slowed down, and the sustainability of institutional fund inflows remains to be seen. Once the liquidation wave ends, buying power may quickly wane.Zcash's surge sends a historic pullback warning signal
CryptoQuant analysts point out that Zcash surged 70% in a few days, pushing its derivatives market into an extreme area, and this pattern historically often foreshadows an impending pullback in Bitcoin. Currently, the open interest in ZEC futures accounts for over 11% of its market cap, and if faced with forced liquidations, it could trigger a chain reaction across major platforms, pushing market participants into a risk-averse mode. This warning signal deserves high vigilance.
Understanding the Present
1. Bitcoin breaks $80,000, achieving the strongest weekly increase in nearly three years
Bitcoin briefly peaked at $81,257 earlier this week, standing above $80,000 for the first time since May 2026. In the previous week, BTC has accumulated an increase of about 23.5%, marking the largest weekly gain in nearly three years. Ethereum also rebounded above $2,500, while XRP experienced a weekly gain of up to 53%.
2. Over $2.6 billion flowed into cryptocurrency ETFs in one week, as institutional funds accelerate their return
US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined net inflow of approximately $2.61 billion this week. On just August 24, the BTC ETF had a net inflow of $338 million, and the ETH ETF had a net inflow of $116 million. The Solana spot fund also set the record for the largest single-day inflow since December 2025.
3. Surge in stablecoin supply significantly improves on-chain liquidity
In the past week, Circle's stablecoin supply increased by $1.7 billion, and Tether increased by $200 million. The combined stablecoin growth across Tron, Solana, and HyperEVM chains was about $1.97 billion, indicating an acceleration of on-chain capital inflow.
4. Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference opens, with crypto as an official topic for the first time
From August 27 to 29, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference was held, with this year's official theme being "Financial Innovation: Impact on Payments and Policies," for the first time including crypto and payment innovation in the official agenda. Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered the first speech on August 28, with the market closely watching for his policy signals on interest rate paths.
5. SEC submits cryptocurrency custody reform proposal to the White House
On August 27, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submitted a draft of cryptocurrency custody rules for investment companies to the White House, aiming to regulate how investment companies custody digital assets and provide clearer regulatory guidance for the industry.
6. SEC previously proposed a new framework for "cryptocurrency asset regulation"
The "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal put forth by the SEC on August 18 includes exemptions for startups, fundraising exemptions, and a safe harbor mechanism, proposing to allow specific token issuances to be exempt from securities registration. This is the first time the SEC has developed a dedicated regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets in nearly a decade.
7. CLARITY Act's legislative process postponed until September
The Senate has postponed the voting on cryptocurrency legislation until after the August recess, with a key procedural vote scheduled for September 15. The market is highly focused on the final legislative progress, with this bill regarded as a critical turning point for the US cryptocurrency regulatory environment.
8. Polish exchange Zondacrypto faces collapse, founders and CEO go missing
The Polish crypto exchange Zondacrypto is in severe crisis. Founder Sylwester Suszek has been missing since 2022, and the lawyer who succeeded as CEO, Przemyslaw Kral, also went missing in April this year. The platform's website has closed, and approximately 1.3 million customers are unable to withdraw funds, with its ZND token plummeting over 99.9%, and the operating license of the parent company was revoked by Estonian authorities in June.
9. Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability continues to escalate, with stolen funds reaching $116 million
A vulnerability in the Coinkite Coldcard hardware wallet firmware from five years ago was exploited by hackers, stealing approximately 1,816 BTC (approximately $116 million) since July 30, becoming the third-largest cryptocurrency theft incident so far in 2026. This vulnerability has caused seed generation to fall back to a weaker software random number generator.
10. Term Labs suffers governance vulnerability attack, losing $8.5 million
The DeFi protocol Term Labs encountered a governance vulnerability attack on August 23, losing approximately $8.5 million. Security firms traced the incident to the governance mechanism of the Yearn v3 infrastructure's treasury, again highlighting the ongoing threat of access control vulnerabilities to protocol security.
Macroeconomics
On August 26, the US core PCE price index for July was 3.3% year-on-year, with an expectation of 3.30% and a previous value of 3.30%. The US core PCE price index for July was 0.2% month-on-month, expected at 0.20%, with a previous value of 0.10%.
On August 26 at 22:30, the US will announce EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 21 at 9.5 (thousand barrels), expectations at 59.7, previous value at 440.5.
On August 27 at 20:30, the US will announce jobless claims for the week ending August 22 at 20.3 (ten thousand), expectations at 20.8, previous value at 20.7.
On August 28, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is reported at 64.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is at 35%.
Forecasting the Future
Industry Conferences
NFT NYC 2026 will be held from September 1 to 3, 2026, in New York, USA.
The Shanghai Blockchain International Week will be held in September 2026, with the "12th Global Blockchain Summit" hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Lab set to launch on September 23 at the Grand Ballroom on the first floor of the Hyatt on the Bund as the core event of the international week.
ETH Taipei 2026 will take place from September 13 to 15.
KBW2026 will be held from September 29 to October 1 in Seoul, South Korea.
Important Events
The Russian "Digital Currency and Digital Rights Law" is expected to take effect on September 1 this year, establishing a licensing system for cryptocurrency trading, custody, exchange of digital currencies for fiat, and cross-border settlement activities, with a trading limit of approximately 300,000 rubles (about $3,800) per year for non-qualified investors.
The Vietnamese decree on administrative penalties for cryptocurrency violations will officially take effect on September 1.
On September 2 at 20:15, the US will announce ADP employment numbers for August (in ten thousand).
On September 2 at 22:30, the US will announce EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 28 (in thousand barrels).
On September 3 at 20:30, the US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 (in ten thousand).
On September 4 at 20:30, the US will announce the unemployment rate for August.
On September 4 at 20:30, the US will announce non-farm employment numbers for August, seasonally adjusted (in ten thousand).
Project Progress
Franklin Templeton has applied to launch a dividend reinvestment Bitcoin ETF, expected to take effect as early as September 1, 2026.
The airdrop claim date for CUDIS Ring holders is set for September 3, 2025, requiring 56,000 points in the CUDIS application.
The crypto payment platform Cypher has been acquired by the cross-border payment giant Nium, and the platform will continue to operate until September 6.
Token Unlocks
Zora (ZORA) will unlock 166 million tokens on August 30, valued at approximately $1.03 million, accounting for 3.13% of the circulating supply.
GoPlus Security (GPS) will unlock 166 million tokens on September 1, valued at approximately $1.59 million, accounting for 3.12% of the circulating supply.
Sui (SUI) will unlock 13.54 million tokens on September 1, valued at approximately $10.17 million, accounting for 0.33% of the circulating supply.
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on September 1, valued at approximately $7.37 million, accounting for 5.48% of the circulating supply.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on September 2, valued at approximately $5.86 million, accounting for 0.46% of the circulating supply.
Opinion (OPN) will unlock 39.24 million tokens on September 5, valued at approximately $2.08 million, accounting for 10.04% of the circulating supply.
Hyper Liquid (HYPE) will unlock 9.96 million tokens on September 6, valued at approximately $806 million, accounting for 2.37% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market contexts for you through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports"; with the exclusive column "Hotcoin Carefully Selected" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also meet with you through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly advise investors to invest based on a full understanding of these risks and under a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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