Author: Li Dan, Li Jia

The situation between the U.S. and Iran has escalated sharply, with risks to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz rising dramatically, leading to a strong rebound in international crude oil futures.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump stated on Monday, the 13th, that he is restoring maritime blockade against Iran. According to CCTV News, Trump announced on his social media platform on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is currently open, and will remain open regardless of Iran's participation. The U.S. will reimplement a "blockade against Iran," which will target only Iranian vessels or customers, restricting their access to the strait, while all other countries may use the strait fairly and openly. He also stated that the U.S. will charge a fee of 20% on all goods transported through this region, and the relevant processes and deployment will start immediately.

In Trump's post on social media, he touted this fee as "compensation" for the U.S. acting as the guardian of the strait. He wrote: "From now on, the U.S. will be regarded as the 'guardian of the Strait of Hormuz'; as a guardian, based on the principle of 'fairness,' the U.S. will charge 20% on all transported goods as compensation for the necessary expenses to maintain security and safety in this turbulent region of the world."

After Trump’s post in the early U.S. stock market session on Monday, international crude oil prices further climbed, with West Texas Intermediate rising above $75 and intraday gains expanding to 5%, while Brent crude approached the $80 mark with nearly a 5% increase; the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields also climbed, and the S&P 500's decline widened to 0.5%, with spot gold plunging nearly 3%.

During Monday's midday trading, after the U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. military would begin to restart the maritime blockade against Iran at 4 PM EDT on the 14th, or 4 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, international crude oil gains suddenly expanded to nearly 10%. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Trump's 20% fee on the Strait of Hormuz is “excessive” and declared that Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz.

At the end of Monday's U.S. stock market session, according to Iranian media Tasnim, an explosion was heard on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and explosions were also reported in the southern Iranian ports of Abbas and Konarak. Subsequently, CCTV reported that on the evening of the 13th, four explosions were heard in the eastern part of Iran's Abbas port. After the U.S. stock market closed, CCTV reported that three explosions were heard again at Abbas port early on the 14th local time. The Iranian authorities have not confirmed the nature of the explosions.

At the end of Monday's U.S. stock market session, after the news of the explosions in Iran came out, international crude oil prices maintained intraday gains of about 9%. After the U.S. stock market closed on Monday, Trump stated that the U.S. will "hit" Iran hard tonight and tomorrow, with oil prices remaining high, and Brent crude rising more than 10% from Friday's close.

Trump later declared that he believes it may be possible to reach a deal with Iran. He said he wants "compensation" for protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and that the U.S. will receive compensation from countries that benefited from the protection provided by the U.S.

After the U.S. stock market closed on Monday, according to Xinhua News Agency citing Iranian media, an American military MQ-1 drone was shot down by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's air defense system over the Strait of Hormuz late that night. Earlier, U.S. Central Command revealed on social media that U.S. forces struck a submarine and ship repair facility at Iran's Abbas port military base last Sunday, marking the first time armed unmanned boats were used in combat by U.S. forces.

CCTV quoted a post from U.S. Central Command, stating that under Trump's direction, U.S. military started its third consecutive night airstrike against Iran at 4:45 PM EST on Monday, and it also mentioned that the actions will continue to impose heavy costs on Iranian armed forces and weaken their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. military to begin maritime blockade of Iran on European and American time on Tuesday

The United Nations' International Maritime Organization (IMO) stated after Trump's post that it opposes charging fees to ships navigating through the maritime route but will wait for more details. During the U.S. stock market's midday trading, according to CCTV, the Joint Maritime Information Center, overseen by the U.S. Navy, stated that the U.S. military will begin to enforce the maritime blockade against all Iranian ports and coastal areas at 20:00 GMT on July 14 (04:00 Beijing time on the 15th).

The blockade will apply to all vessels, regardless of the flag they fly. The scope of the blockade covers the entire Iranian coastline, including but not limited to Iranian ports and oil terminals. The blockade will not obstruct the passage of neutral vessels traveling to non-Iranian destinations through the Strait of Hormuz or departing from non-Iranian destinations. Humanitarian shipments will be allowed to pass but must undergo inspections.

Although Trump stated that the fee plan will be immediately formulated and implemented, the White House did not immediately provide more details about the proposal, including how it will be enforced or whether it has been communicated with U.S. allies. Commentators believe that Trump's remarks have intensified the dispute between the U.S. and Iran over whether this critical shipping corridor is open for traffic.

Previously, according to Xinhua News Agency citing Iranian media, on the 13th, the spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces' Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters stated that U.S. interference in the management of the Strait of Hormuz would not be tolerated.

The spokesperson said that the Iranian armed forces will strongly retaliate against the U.S. military's unauthorized intrusion into designated waterways and interference with commercial vessels and oil tankers. "The recent actions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Islamic Republic of Iran's Army are clear evidence."

Earlier on Monday, Trump, in a phone interview with Fox News Channel, stated that the U.S. plans to control the Strait of Hormuz and should be compensated for "guarding" this important waterway. He said, "We have guarded the strait for 50 years without compensation. We want compensation for this, as we put our personnel in danger."

Iran Claims Southern Navigation Route of Hormuz Strait is "Unsafe"

Additionally, according to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s embassy in the UK stated on social media on the 13th that the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz is "unsafe, unreliable, and prone to accidents."

The Iranian embassy in the UK stated that to comply with the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, Iran has established a temporary maritime security corridor that has no technical or military barriers and has informed the International Maritime Organization. However, "the U.S. is directing ships towards a dangerous southern parallel route. This route is not only legally questionable but also unsafe, unreliable, and prone to accidents."

The Iranian embassy in the UK stated that the U.S. attacks on Iranian ports and other "military acts of aggression" have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a highly tense and high-risk region.

After the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was reached, two navigation routes were formed in the strait, one controlled by Iran in the northern route and one on the Omani side in the southern route, with the U.S. military providing navigation assistance in the southern route.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy announced early on the 12th of last week that due to the unsafe situation caused by illegal interference from foreign powers, the Strait of Hormuz would be closed from now until further notice and until the U.S. stops interfering in the region. The U.S. Central Command stated on social media Sunday morning U.S. time that "traffic is still ongoing" in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran does not control this strait.

International Maritime Organization: Opposes Charging Fees for the Strait Used for International Navigation

Following Trump’s post, a spokesperson for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) stated, "We have noted the related remarks and are waiting for more details."

The spokesperson stated: "Our position on the fee issue is consistently clear—the International Maritime Organization firmly opposes charging fees for transit through straits used for international navigation. Charging transit fees solely for passing through a strait is not legally tenable."

Media mentioned that shipping industry officials expressed concern over Trump’s latest move regarding fees, stating that their assessment indicates such measures would violate international law.

One industry official questioned Trump's remarks: "How does this make navigation safer? What kind of guarantees does it provide?"

Trump Has Notified Congress of the Resurgence of Conflict with Iran

According to CCTV citing U.S. sources on Monday the 13th, Trump has formally notified Congress of a resurgence of conflict with Iran. In a letter to Congressional leaders dated the 10th, Trump wrote that U.S. military conducted "defensive strikes" against targets within Iran on the 7th.

It is reported that this letter has further exacerbated the dispute between Congress and the White House, despite Congress voting previously to require the President to end the war or seek approval to continue actions; however, the White House insists that Trump is operating within his constitutional powers as Commander-in-Chief.