Several large companies are continuously promoting the process of AI replacing jobs.

Written by: Li Jia

Source: Wall Street News

Once attacked due to controversies surrounding AI risks, Altman has now changed his tone, stating that the impact of AI on the job market may not be as severe as the external concerns suggest.

On Tuesday local time, while attending a conference hosted by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) in Sydney, Altman pointed out that the rapid development and wide application of artificial intelligence are unlikely to trigger a global "employment apocalypse." He mentioned that the actual degree of AI replacing entry-level white-collar jobs is much lower than his previous expectations. At the same time, he emphasized that the "human factors" in workplace interactions are an important basis for him to revise this judgment.

However, Altman did not completely rule out risks. He cautioned in his speech that the far-reaching impact on employment may "still be on the way," leaving room in his wording. In the context of several large companies worldwide announcing AI replacements for certain jobs, Altman's revised position provides a new perspective for external assessments of the actual impact of AI on the labor market, and to some extent alleviates the pessimistic expectations surrounding AI job replacement effects.

It is noteworthy that just over a month before this speech, Altman’s residence in San Francisco was attacked twice—first by a thrown incendiary device, and 45 hours later by gunfire, with the suspect's documents filled with extreme concerns about AI risks and "impending extinction." This change of tone can be seen not so much as an optimistic judgment about the job market, but rather as a recalibration of the narrative surrounding AI risks.

Accurate technological predictions, erroneous social impact assessments

During a conversation with CBA CEO Matt Comyn, Altman candidly acknowledged that since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in 2022, the company has been "largely correct" in predicting the technology development path, but there have been significant deviations at the economic and social levels.

He previously anticipated that AI would have a more serious impact on entry-level white-collar jobs at this stage, but the reality has not turned out that way. He stated that this is an area where his intuition was completely off, adding that he now has a deeper understanding of this phenomenon. He said:

"I’m glad I was wrong on this issue; I thought by now many more entry-level white-collar jobs would be eliminated than actually are."

It is worth noting that Altman did not cite specific employment data in this speech. Previously, he had openly discussed the potential risk of industry-wide layoffs brought about by AI advancements.

Interpersonal interactions form the "moat" for employment

What prompted Altman to adjust his judgment was a personal experience. He had attempted to have AI respond to Slack messages and emails, noting "this is Sam's AI responding," but eventually chose to handle some communications personally. He stated:

"This made me deeply realize that we really care about the interactions between each other. While this takes up a lot of my time, I can't imagine outsourcing it to AI in the short term."

Therefore, Altman believes that the interpersonal interaction dimension involved in many professions will not be easily replaced by AI. He mentioned that the employment landscape is likely to be strikingly different from previous assumptions, and he does not believe that the so-called "employment apocalypse" touted or discussed by some in the industry will come to pass.

Altman's optimistic yet realistic perspective on replacements

Apart from the employment issue, OpenAI's own capital movements are also of great interest. Wall Street News mentioned that OpenAI may file for an IPO as soon as this week, completing it in September, with a target valuation exceeding $1 trillion.

Meanwhile, several large companies around the world have announced their plans to replace certain jobs with AI, including HSBC, Amazon, Standard Chartered Bank, and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This trend indicates that while Altman's judgment about the overall impact on employment tends to be optimistic, the actual replacement effect of AI on specific jobs is still ongoing.