Author:Lianyan Society
Could this be BTC's diamond bottom in 2028?
2026 is undoubtedly the worst start for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.
From a dark opening on January 1st until now, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a drop of 24% since the beginning of the year. ETH is even worse, down 34%. This is the worst start for BTC since 2016.
But this time is different; this time the crash happened without a reason.
I. Drops Without Reason Are the Deepest Fear
The 73% drop in 2018 was due to the ICO bubble bursting, with countless air coins going to zero. The 77% drop in 2022 was due to the Luna crash + Three Arrows Capital + FTX's collapse. Each time you knew why it crashed.
Every time, you knew where the enemy was and how long it would take to rebuild trust. But what about 2026?
• No exchange has collapsed
• No algorithmic stablecoins have crashed
• No hacking incidents
• No country has banned BTC
It just dropped. Fortune magazine calls it the worst start in history, but there is no clear catalyst for the crash.
A crash with reasoning will often have a sharp rebound after negative news is fully priced in; but a drop without reason feels like a chronic blood loss. When everyone asks why it fell but can't find an answer, panic will grow exponentially.
II. Have We Hit the Bottom Indicators?
Current market quantitative indicators show that the market has entered a certain irrational sell-off vacuum.
According to the latest data from February 25, our bottom-fishing model currently shows a signal of only 1/5, still far from the true bottom (data source: fuckbtc)
❌ MVRV 1.0
❌ Price ≤ 200-week moving average
❌ Price P25
✅ Fear and Greed ≤ 25 (Extreme Fear 11)
❌ Close to shutdown price (close to half the machines shutting down)
This level of extreme fear has only appeared in historical contexts like the end of 2018 at $3,000 and during the FTX crisis at $16,000. Although the price is still at $65,000, the market's psychological defense line has retreated to doomsday mode.
III. Positive Signals Beneath the Ice: Who Is Exiting? Who Is Stuck?
Despite the extreme cold feel, there are some positive signals:
1. USDT has seen a net outflow of $3B over 60 days. The last time there was a contraction of this scale was at the end of 2022 during the FTX collapse when BTC was at $16K. Now BTC is at $64K, four times higher than that time.
The intensity of capital withdrawal in both cases is similar, indicating that leverage and floating capital in the market have been cleaned up very well.
2. Short-term whales have unrealized losses of $26B. Most of these people entered the market around $90K-$120K and are now down 40%. The pressure to sell heavily from further declines should not be that significant.
Based on historical experience, when large funds are underwater by this depth, the active selling pressure tends to dry up—because cutting losses no longer makes logical sense.
➤ My Opinion
I do not predict that this is the bottom (it is highly likely not)
But I know:
• Extreme fear (11) has appeared
• Historically, drops without reason often go deeper, but rebounds are also stronger
• At this position of $65K, the margin of safety is relatively high
Those who said $3K was the bottom in 2018 were correct. Those who said $16K was the bottom in 2022 were correct. Those who say $64K is the bottom in 2026—may be right, or may be wrong.
I don't know.
But what I do know is: panic will always pass, and once trust is rebuilt, prices will return.
If you are still on the sidelines at this position, at least you have avoided the most drastic correction phase; according to historical sentiment, prices usually bottom out before market sentiment does.
History repeats: After the Mt. Gox hack in 2015, everyone also thought trust could not be rebuilt; but looking back, every reasonless dark moment eventually became a diamond bottom leading into the next cycle. The $64,000 in 2026 may be the number you regret not buying into the most when you look back in 2028.
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