Author: 137Labs

Against the backdrop of rising risk aversion in global markets, asset performance has become increasingly divergent. Gold has maintained its position above $5000 per ounce for the second consecutive trading day, while Bitcoin has shown signs of fatigue amid high-level fluctuations. Fund flow data indicates that investors are systematically adjusting their risk positioning across different assets.

In the past week, Bitcoin-related fund products have experienced a cumulative net outflow of over $1.3 billion, becoming a significant part of the overall withdrawal trend from cryptocurrency ETFs.

Gold Continues to Strengthen, Dollar Weakens Amid Geopolitical Risks

Influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions, heightened concerns over sovereign debt, and a continuously weakening dollar, international gold prices have risen for the seventh consecutive trading day. During the session, gold prices surged by 1.3%, firmly standing above the $5000 mark. Meanwhile, silver prices saw a daily increase of nearly 7%, indicating that the precious metals sector is favored by risk-averse capital.

Recently, U.S. President Trump has repeatedly issued strong trade and diplomatic statements, including tariff threats and geopolitical remarks, which have heightened market concerns over policy uncertainty. At the same time, the dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years, with speculation that the U.S. may intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the yen's performance.

Institutional View: Two Core Supports for the Gold Bull Market Remain

Daniel Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Director of PIMCO, one of the world's largest bond management firms, pointed out that the current rise in gold is not driven by short-term sentiment but is dominated by deep structural factors.

He stated that the key factors supporting gold's long-term performance are mainly two:

"One is the ongoing rise in global geopolitical tensions, and the other is investors' concerns over high debt levels of various governments. As long as these two factors continue to play a significant role in the market, gold is likely to continue to perform very well in the long term."

From a historical perspective, gold prices have doubled in the past two years and have just recorded their best annual performance since 1979. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen by about 17%, highlighting its defensive attributes in a systemic risk environment.

Volatility Rising in Sync, Short-term Correction Risks Begin to Emerge

Although the long-term logic remains optimistic, some market participants are cautious about gold's short-term trajectory.

Stephen Innes, Executive Partner at SPI Asset Management, noted that the market has become highly sensitive to Trump's policy direction:

"Today it's tariffs, tomorrow it's geopolitical issues, and the day after it may involve the independence of the Federal Reserve. This recurring uncertainty will inevitably exacerbate short-term market volatility."

Data shows that the implied volatility of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) has risen to its highest level since the early days of the 2020 pandemic; meanwhile, the volatility of the world's largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust—is also at a high level.

Ivascyn also warned that precious metals may experience technical pullbacks in the short term:

"Recently, gold, silver, and other precious metals have significantly outperformed other assets, partly due to individual investors continuously increasing their positions, leading to a rapid price increase. Therefore, a substantial short-term correction cannot be ruled out."

Bitcoin Stagnates, Funds Continue to Withdraw from the Crypto Market

In stark contrast to gold's continued strength, Bitcoin's recent price has hovered around $87,000, with trading volume remaining sluggish. Since its peak last October, Bitcoin has cumulatively corrected by about 25%, with a decline of 6% in just the past seven days.

In terms of fund flows, investors are accelerating their exit from crypto assets. Data shows that in the past week, Bitcoin-related funds experienced a net outflow of over $1.3 billion, reversing the brief inflow seen earlier this year.

JPMorgan: Cryptocurrency ETFs Face Systematic Fund Outflows

In a recent report, JPMorgan pointed out that in the current market environment, stocks and precious metals are attracting large-scale inflows, while cryptocurrency ETFs are under sustained pressure.

The report indicates that broadly covered stock ETFs are experiencing one of the largest net inflows in history, while ETFs related to crypto assets are being continuously reduced by investors, reflecting a clear decline in risk appetite.

Experts Question: Bitcoin Struggles to Assume a Stable Macro Hedge Role

Stephane Ouellette, CEO and co-founder of FRNT Financial Inc., believes that the crypto market currently faces multiple challenges:

"On one hand, artificial intelligence has attracted a significant amount of capital over the past year; on the other hand, cryptocurrencies are being excluded from inflation trades."

This phenomenon has reignited academic discussions about Bitcoin's hedging properties. Duke University professor Cam Harvey bluntly stated:

"Bitcoin is unlikely to replace gold as the preferred safe-haven asset for investors."

The analysis team at crypto asset company Tagus Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin's hedging effect has clear limitations:

"Bitcoin's returns may respond to a loose monetary environment or concerns over fiat currency depreciation, but academic research shows that this hedging effect is sporadic, weaker than gold, and heavily influenced by risk appetite, liquidity, and stock-like factors."

Conclusion: Risk-Averse Capital is Redefining 'Safe Assets'

In summary, the continuous new highs in gold and the sluggish performance of Bitcoin are not coincidental phenomena, but rather a reordering of asset safety and stability by global capital in a high-uncertainty phase.

In the short term, precious metals may still maintain relative strength driven by risk-averse demand; however, for Bitcoin to regain market consensus as a "macro hedge asset," it will need to wait for a warming of risk appetite and a more stable macro environment.

The views expressed in this article are based on public information and the author's judgment and should not be taken as investment advice. The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。