Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Against the backdrop of a complex interplay of global macroeconomics and geopolitical issues, the market is undergoing a profound revaluation of asset values. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to a four-year low, and Trump has expressed no concern about this, even claiming he can manipulate the dollar's fluctuations like a "yo-yo." On the geopolitical front, while the US has informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran, both sides are currently communicating through informal channels. In this environment, gold prices have surged, with spot gold briefly breaking through $5,270 per ounce, setting a new historical high, up nearly 22% this month, and domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,610 yuan per gram.

Silver has risen over 60% this month, with soaring prices triggering a frenzy among retail investors. The world's largest silver ETF (iShares Silver Trust) recorded a record single-day inflow of funds, prompting the CME to raise margins on some silver futures contracts to cope with the volatility. Citigroup and the Bank of Montreal Capital Markets (BMO) have both expressed extremely bullish views, with Citigroup predicting that silver could reach $150 in the next three months, noting that the pricing mechanism for gold is shifting from traditional mining costs to being determined by global wealth allocation demand and rigid supply. In a bullish scenario, gold prices could soar to $6,000. BMO also believes that the changing global landscape has created historic opportunities for precious metals, forecasting that gold prices could reach $8,650 by the end of 2027.

However, not all seasoned investors are caught up in the frenzy. Commodity legend Rick Rule revealed that he has sold most of his physical silver holdings, reallocating profits to what he believes are more leveraged silver mining stocks and gold as a store of value. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand has implemented measures to limit trading volumes and prohibit short selling to address the appreciation pressure on the Thai baht caused by gold trading. Looking ahead, the market's focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3 AM this Thursday. Although the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, Chairman Powell's speech will provide key guidance amid the intertwining of political pressure and economic data. Additionally, Google Cloud has announced a price increase, and the market is awaiting earnings reports from the tech giants known as the "Seven Sisters," with industry leaders generally concerned about inflation and geopolitical risks reshaping the macroeconomy.

Bitcoin has been approaching $90,000 after dropping to $86,000 on Sunday, currently hovering around $89,000, facing the rare risk of a fourth consecutive month of decline since 2018. The main pressure on the market comes from the continued outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs, with data from Wintermute and analyst Murphy showing that the sell-off in the US market is dominating market direction. The net positions of stablecoins on exchanges have also turned negative, indicating a weakening of purchasing power. From a technical analysis perspective, analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that the 21-day and 50-day moving averages of Bitcoin's weekly chart have formed a bearish crossover for the first time since the 2022 bear market. Analyst KillaXBT believes that losing the $90,000 level indicates a bearish market structure.

Despite the cautious market sentiment, the derivatives market and some technical indicators still reveal a glimmer of optimism. As the expiration of options with a total nominal value of about $8.5 billion approaches on January 30, data shows that traders have a strong interest in call options for $100,000. However, analysts point out that this may be more about complex arbitrage strategies rather than direct bullish bets. Glassnode's analysis indicates that while demand for call options has been strong recently, it is mainly concentrated in the short term, and long-term risks have not been repriced. On the other hand, a joint study by Swissblock and analyst Willy Woo found that Bitcoin prices and the RSI indicator are forming a bullish divergence, suggesting a potential short-term rebound to $95,000. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes proposed a macro catalyst theory, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's "invisible printing" to intervene in the yen and Japanese government bond markets will ultimately inject liquidity into risk assets like Bitcoin. Overall, Bitcoin is in a critical consolidation range, with the support level at $85,000 being tested, while facing resistance from ETF selling pressure and bearish technical patterns, as the market awaits a decisive catalyst to break the deadlock.

Ethereum has shown a degree of independent resilience, with prices rebounding above $3,000. Although the short-term implied volatility has reached 63%, the fundamental data is improving, with Layer 2 weekly transaction volume surging to 128 million transactions and network fees rising by 19%. Additionally, from the derivatives market perspective, the put/call ratio for Ethereum options has returned to neutral after a brief peak in hedging, indicating that professional traders' confidence is recovering. Cointelegraph's analysis points out that on-chain indicators suggest a potential rebound to $3,300.

In the altcoin market, the three major 1INCH investors' wallets sold over 36 million tokens, causing the price to plummet by 20%, exposing the widespread liquidity weakness in the altcoin market. Analyst Yu Jin noted that while 1INCH has a circulating market cap of $180 million, its liquidity is extremely poor, with its actual daily trading volume on Binance being only about $340,000.

Meanwhile, retail investors' speculative enthusiasm has partially shifted to commodities, with record inflows into silver ETFs. VandaTrack analysts pointed out that silver has become a new favorite among retail investors, with its trading heat even surpassing that of Nvidia. Tom Sosnoff, founder of the US financial platform LossDog, described the surge in silver prices as "meme stock" style frenzied trading.

2. Key Data (as of January 28, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $8,906 (YTD +1.82%), daily spot trading volume $50.36 billion

• Ethereum: $3,001 (YTD +1.02%), daily spot trading volume $30.47 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 29 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: SXP, AXS, XRP, BTC, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.22% / 49.78%

• Sector performance: The crypto market has slightly risen, with only the GameFi and DePIN sectors showing weak declines

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 76,134 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $261 million, including $71.398 million in BTC liquidations, $72.508 million in ETH liquidations, and $22.88 million in HYPE liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 27)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$147 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$63.53 million

• XRP ETF: +$9.16 million

• SOL ETF: +$1.87 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch Moonbirds (BIRB)

• Binance will launch the fifth phase of the Prime Sale Pre-TGE project Zama (ZAMA)

• Google will remove unregistered overseas crypto exchange apps from the Korean app store starting January 28

• The US Senate Agriculture Committee will review the crypto market structure bill on January 29

• Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, and IBM will release earnings reports after the market closes on January 28

• US Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision (lower limit): expected 3.5%, previous 3.5% (January 29, 03:00)

• US Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision (upper limit): expected 3.75%, previous 3.75% (January 29, 03:00)

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: Pippin up 58.6%, Hyperliquid up 22.5%, Quant up 8.4%, Jupiter up 7.4%, Pudgy Penguins up 6.6%.

5. Hot News

• Bitwise has registered the "Bitwise Uniswap ETF" in Delaware

• ERC-8004 will launch on the Ethereum mainnet to support AI agents in cross-organizational interactions and reputation flow

• A whale withdrew 1,000 BTC worth $89.2 million from OKX in nearly 17 hours

• Bitmine has staked approximately 113,200 ETH again, bringing the total staked value to $6.82 billion

• A whale holding HYPE long positions has seen unrealized profits exceed $12 million

• Spot gold has first risen above $5,200

• Tether holds approximately 140 tons of gold, valued at about $23 billion

• CME crypto derivatives traded nearly $3 trillion in nominal principal in 2025

• 1INCH liquidity is concerning, a single sell-off triggered a 13% drop in market cap

• American Bitcoin increased its holdings by 416 BTC, bringing total holdings to 5,843 BTC

• A dormant Ethereum whale transferred 135,000 ETH to Gemini this week after 9 years

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