🎄Merry Christmas!
Author: Castle Labs
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Welcome to our special edition newsletter, issue #152!
To celebrate the end of the year, we have specially collected quotes and predictions from the Castle Labs team, the Castle Cap community (all experts), and some friends!
Since we have already published a detailed year-end report, this time we chose to present it in a different format: sharing direct quotes from builders, experts, researchers, and seasoned traders reflecting on 2025 and predicting 2026.
1. Predictions from Castle Labs
I hate making predictions! As a researcher, I prefer to make "predictions" based on data. Therefore, I only have a few narratives that I am particularly confident about.
First is robotics. Not only because of its inherent potential, but also because I believe it will receive policy support. Trump has already announced a possible rollout of a robotics strategy in 2026 and signed related executive orders.
Another prediction is that everyone will need to bring their investment frameworks closer to traditional finance (TradFi). I believe 2026 will be a year when protocols operate like businesses and reshape their moats, continuing to deeply integrate into the global financial architecture.
Additionally, I expect criminal activities in prediction markets to continue to rise, with insider trading becoming increasingly common. The fact that Trump is involved in prediction markets through his family business itself foreshadows what might happen in the future.
Last but not least, I expect artificial intelligence (AI) to continue to grow, not only replacing more processes but also highlighting threats related to privacy and identity. Therefore, privacy issues will become an increasingly serious concern. Solutions like the identity verification provided by Worldcoin will become increasingly important and help drive innovations such as unsecured loans based on on-chain reputation (tied to real identities).
Thus, I believe 2026 will continue to be a year of maturation and evaluation for the industry. However, all these developments cannot exist in isolation, as the industry becomes increasingly reliant on macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Therefore, it is impossible to accurately analyze token trends without paying attention to issues like whether Venezuela will be bombed. Our crypto Twitter (CT) political analysts should note this!
@0xatomist
Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK) will become the core of global digital infrastructure; however, its applications are not necessarily limited to the "cryptocurrency" or blockchain space. Instead, it will gradually permeate the traditional Web2 world to address the current severe data liability crisis—driving the adoption of privacy-preserving identity verification, secure logins, and verifiable AI technologies.
Whoever can develop a "legitimate and widely accepted" on-chain transaction privacy technology will achieve great success. This is a prerequisite for the first real influx of enterprise and institutional funds into the chain.
The market will gradually realize that cryptographic technology is the missing key link in the development of robotics. It is expected that by 2050, the humanoid robot market will reach $5 trillion, but it currently faces a huge "data barrier" because it cannot be trained like simple large language models (LLMs). Practices in 2025 have already shown that Distributed Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Distributed Physical AI (DePAI) are the only ways to massively accelerate robot training. Through tokenized incentive mechanisms, global contributors can be mobilized to collect the unique motion and environmental data required for physical AI. Cryptographic technology is no longer just about finance; it will become the coordinating layer of the machine economy.
@schizoxbt
By 2026, 80% of altcoins and blockchain projects will trend towards zero. The reason is simple: they mostly have extremely poor tokenomics and the products offered have no market demand, making them unworthy investments. As for "memecoins," they should also go extinct like the dodo, as they may be one of the most absurd things created by our industry.
However, I believe decentralized finance (DeFi) will experience an absolute revival in 2026. As institutional and traditional finance (TradFi) funds flow onto the chain at a larger scale, DeFi protocols (the closest thing we have to stocks or investable enterprises in our industry) will be the biggest winners. Their total value locked (TVL) is expected to grow significantly with the influx of institutional funds (hopefully, haha). If institutional funds flood in, I wouldn't be surprised if DeFi's TVL experiences explosive growth, and related tokens soar.
While the privacy sector had a small-scale explosion in the past, it gradually faded away. However, I believe privacy protection will make a comeback in 2026 and become a major industry narrative.
Additionally, I hope to see more discussions about tokenomics and the rights of token holders in 2026, finding better solutions than the existing models. The current outlook for tokenomics is quite bleak, with most designs being poor. I am very much looking forward to some innovations in this area in the future!
@noveleader
The crypto user base is gradually maturing, and at least 2025 has made one thing clear: people's interest in scams is waning. Moreover, core crypto users are beginning to place greater importance on key factors such as income sources, the rights of token holders, and the returns they can obtain. Next year, we will see more discussions on these issues, and protocols will have to create value for token holders to remain competitive and relevant.
Perpetual contracts (Perps), privacy, artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics will become stronger next year. Although ordinary users may not care much about privacy issues since they are already in a "pseudo-anonymous" state, institutions, protocols, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) will place greater emphasis on the flow of funds that protect privacy. Perpetual contracts and on-chain spot trading will capture a larger market share of centralized exchanges (CEX) in 2026, and more financial activities will shift to the chain.
The user onboarding process and capital flow patterns in DeFi will undergo a new transformation. The current onboarding methods will experience significant changes and be replaced by consumer-facing applications. Applications like Aave App and Worldcoin will become the preferred touchpoints for new crypto users. This will also help new users better avoid hacking attacks, while "low-risk DeFi" will become more prominent.
Prediction Markets will see the dawn of victory, but the major market share will be occupied by Polymarket and Kalshi. Although other players will also contribute to innovation, they will have their own niche audiences. Furthermore, building on already mature applications will be highly advantageous. On Polymarket, trading bots will experience explosive growth, and any mispricing in the market will be quickly captured within seconds or even milliseconds, especially in markets with faster resolutions.
2. Predictions for 2026 from the Castle Cap Community
@0x_ultra - @Kalshi
2025 will be the year when prediction markets (PMs) transform from applications to financial layers, evolving from niche tools to a new trading method. Over the past few years, our industry has seen that the world is gradually financializing many aspects of life (including expertise). Now, people from other fields are beginning to understand what the financial future looks like through exposure to prediction markets. Everyone is an expert in certain areas, and they should have the tools to monetize that knowledge.
@proofofjake_ - @ripdotfun
Overall, I believe the collectibles space will experience exponential growth in the coming year. Especially with the upcoming 30th anniversary of Pokémon and the 30th anniversary of One Piece in 2027. Over the past year, many on-chain real-world asset (RWA) and on-chain collectibles projects have shown strong product-market fit (PMF) indicators, such as the exceptional growth of Courtyard and the potential demonstrated by other projects (like Dune Data Analysis).
@kirbyongeo - @hypurr_co
Hyperliquid will become the liquidity layer for all finance.
The HIP-3 proposal will drive a tenfold increase in trading volume, with new deployers focusing on long-tail assets. We will see unique perpetual contracts (Perps) and innovative models supported by Hyperliquid.
Builder Codes have already empowered existing applications (like Phantom and Metamask) and brought them revenue. Where the funds flow, attention will follow, and we will see more applications developed through Builder Codes.
Ultimately, the boundaries of technology will be blurred and abstracted, and people may not even realize they are trading using the infrastructure of Hyperliquid.
Building a blockchain that can support all finance is an ambitious goal, and the road ahead may be difficult and challenging. But when you see the potential for 100x, you will put everything down and go all in to achieve it.
@mattdotfi - @backedFi
Tokenization grants traditional assets composability and modularity, creating a more inclusive financial ecosystem for institutional investors and retail users. The explosive growth of tokenized stocks in 2025 indicates that market demand already exists, and this demand will only continue to rise through the addition of use cases in DeFi and other areas.
@ericonomic - @try_supercexy
Perpetual contracts (Perps) are gradually breaking through the limitations of the crypto Twitter (CT) echo chamber, becoming truly mainstream, primarily thanks to the success of Hyperliquid. Its rise has made many traders aware of the opacity in the operations of most centralized exchanges (CEX), which often operate in their own self-interest, while decentralized trading platforms have developed into genuine alternatives. These platforms can now offer user experiences similar to CEX while avoiding structural conflicts of interest.
I expect that by 2026, the trading volume of perpetual contracts on decentralized exchanges (DEX) will reach 50% of CEX trading volume and may even surpass it in practice, as many CEX report exaggerated or even fictitious trading volumes. As this trend develops, many regional and smaller CEX will gradually migrate to Hyperliquid's infrastructure, transforming through Builder Codes.
@dandefied - @ryskfinance
2026 will be a decisive year for DeFi.
The infrastructure has finally matured, and products that have gone through this cycle have been battle-tested, with institutional players beginning to transfer meaningful amounts of capital onto the chain. This presents a real opportunity for DeFi to prove that it is not just a niche market or a "casino," but a cleaner, safer, and more efficient alternative to traditional finance.
Trading will still be dominated by perpetual contracts, and Hyperliquid will continue to expand its lead.
Perpetual contracts remain the dominant product for on-chain trading. Liquidity, user experience (UX), and execution quality will determine the winners, and Hyperliquid is far ahead. The emergence of new perpetual markets (such as stock perpetual contracts) is a promising experiment, but attracting new users and liquidity from traditional finance will be the main challenges and growth opportunities.
2026 will also be the year when options truly become mainstream in DeFi, but not as trading tools—this space has already been occupied by perpetual contracts. The real opportunity lies in using options to achieve specific use cases, such as generating income through volatility or constructing yield structures that do not require users to engage with underlying complexities.
Capital has begun to shift towards products that utilize options behind the scenes, rather than those that serve as trading venues, and 2026 will make this trend more apparent.
@reisnertobias
2025-2026: The Future of Hyperliquid
The coming year will be a critical period for Hyperliquid to realize its vision of "becoming the blockchain that accommodates all finance." Recently, we have seen more teams launching HIP-3 markets on Hyperliquid, covering forex, rare metals, and even Pokémon cards. In addition to driving more advanced technology, Hyperliquid is also facing competition from other perpetual contract DEXs. Overall, the growth of the market is positive, and the future competitive landscape is worth looking forward to.
@insomniac988 - @thetanutsfi
InfoFi is not dead!
Despite facing numerous challenges in 2025, such as being accused of fueling AI-generated junk content, projects with failed incentive mechanisms, and questions about incentives and content quality, this does not mean that InfoFi has perished.
Looking back over the past year, since the launch of Kaito Yaps, InfoFi has proven its value and will continue to evolve. We have seen some positive changes, such as combating bot behavior, using on-chain history to build better participant profiles, and improvements in measuring and rewarding mind share.
I believe 2026 will be a year of further maturation for InfoFi, with better mechanisms, streamlined incentives, and outcomes that align more closely with user and project expectations.
InfoFi is currently in a transformative phase, and I am personally very interested in the developments during this stage.
@CryptoPadawan55
Artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to maintain its high popularity and remains one of the main drivers of stock returns, but signs of its bubble will gradually emerge. For example, issues such as overvaluation of AI startups in traditional finance (TradFi), the internal cycle of financial commitments, and long-term loan rates being 100 basis points higher than treasury yields.
Fundamentally, the fields of crypto and AI will thrive in niche areas such as provenance and automation. Models that are effective in Web2 also apply to Web3, but in Web3, technologies like zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) can more efficiently maintain data provenance, distinguishing which content is real and which is AI-generated in specific scenarios.
We will not see the first mainstream consumer application using large language models (LLMs) with over 500 million monthly active users (MAU) in 2026. 95% of AI's value to humanity will come from consumer applications utilizing the best LLMs. However, the competition for the "LLM Frontier" needs to be prioritized, which will take at least 3 to 5 years.
A "hallucinatory" ChatGPT misinterpretation or complete fabrication of provenance and data does not bring real foundational value.
Currently, the applications with the highest monthly active users are mainly concentrated in generative voice, text, video, and audio fields. As profit margins and competition intensify, issues of AI-generated junk content (AI slop) and bots will become increasingly severe in 2026. Platforms will become stricter in distinguishing generated content from human-created content. The more AI junk content and bot networks there are, the stronger the user backlash will be, and the louder the calls for change will grow.
@0xmars_ - @moonpay
2025 marks a significant turning point for fintech's migration to the chain. Financial applications are no longer just integrating cryptocurrencies but are directly rebuilding their tech stacks based on blockchain.
This shift is due to the simultaneous maturation of two key infrastructures:
On/Offramps: Evolving from infrastructure to scalable, user experience-focused on-chain financial gateways that anyone can easily use.
Stablecoins: Becoming the default method for holding and transferring value on-chain. This is not only the emergence of new infrastructure but also the foundational layer for global capital flows, a world where value can flow as freely as internet information.
2025 has become a key node for fintech's move towards blockchain. Financial applications are no longer simply integrating cryptocurrencies but are rebuilding their tech stacks on blockchain infrastructure. This shift is due to the simultaneous maturation of two foundational modules: on the one hand, the channels (on/off ramps) between fiat and cryptocurrencies have evolved from infrastructure to user experience-focused scalable entry layers, making on-chain finance more accessible to everyone; on the other hand, stablecoins have become the default method for storing and circulating value on-chain.
This is not just the rise of new infrastructure but the construction of a foundational layer for global value circulation. In this new world, the flow of value will be as free and unobstructed as internet information.
@sakshimiishra - @a1research__
The share of the US dollar in global reserves is declining, indicating that capital is shifting from the dollar (the fiat global reserve currency) to hard assets like gold. However, since gold is a physical asset with its own set of issues, Bitcoin has become the ideal asset for capital to park. Many countries have begun to consider including Bitcoin in their reserves, and more countries are expected to follow suit.
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is also rapidly developing, with institutions showing a more aggressive acceptance of tokenized assets and on-chain operations. In 2025, institutions primarily invested in cryptocurrencies through digital asset trusts (DATs), and by 2026, these institutions will directly participate in on-chain operations.
However, once institutions enter the on-chain environment, transparency will become a challenge, leading many blockchains to adopt a "Privacy as a Service" operational model. This means that on currently popular blockchains, users will be able to choose to set their activities to private mode.
I expect market volatility to persist in the first quarter of 2025, but Bitcoin prices will see strong performance in the second quarter, followed by some altcoins also following suit. However, as we have observed in this cycle, there will be very few ultimate winners, so investment layouts need to be cautious.
@darrencamas - @ipor_io
As the US midterm elections approach, the ongoing interest rate cuts have triggered a market rebound in risk appetite, with treasury yields declining, and decentralized finance (DeFi) stablecoin lending optimizers providing good risk returns. Ethena's rates are rebounding, and the return of DeFi-native yield stablecoins and their looping strategies has created many arbitrage trading opportunities for new real-world asset (RWA) collateral entering the market.
DeFi Fusion is fully developing in the three areas of lending optimization, leveraged looping strategies, and arbitrage trading.
@route2fi
I am optimistic about the overall outlook for the crypto industry, but I am not bullish on altcoins. I believe the altcoin market is nearing saturation, and in the past three months, we have witnessed countless ICO projects drop 50%-70% within 24 hours after their token generation events (TGE).
The crypto industry is constantly evolving, and I believe we are transitioning from a phase of "fervently promoting altcoins" to a phase of "focusing on the actual use cases of protocols." In my view, this is a positive change, as we do not need more tokens without real utility.
Looking ahead to 2026, I believe we will see more dominance from traditional finance (TradFi). KYC-gated products like stocks (including spot/perpetual contracts) and leveraged products in prediction markets will rise. Additionally, I believe TradFi will dominate this industry. People like us will no longer be hired based on content posted on Twitter in the future. That said, I think we still have a 2-5 year window.
unexployed - VC Fund
“‘Net-casting’ venture capital is dead. Nowadays, projects are more inclined to validate their products through a minimum viable product (MVP) and then raise funds through public offerings. Many venture capital firms have gone bankrupt and turned to providing services, consulting, market making, and over-the-counter (OTC) trading, trying to retain private advantages in front of retail investors. However, many will realize that they have no advantages in these areas either. The bankruptcy of these funds is an inevitable and healthy reshuffling process in the industry. Some brave venture capitalists are turning to liquidity markets, entering this arena as equal competitors.”
@defipleb - Chad memecoin trader
In crypto trading, the market often swings rapidly between extreme greed and extreme fear. Ultimately, we will return to a state of extreme greed—altcoins will revive, and everything will stabilize.
Focus on emerging narratives like robotics and prediction markets, which are attracting significant capital and may bring the most promising opportunities in the future.
@0xasrequired - @lifiprotocol
The four-year cycle seems to still exist, so I expect that most of 2026 will see a downward trend in the market, and there may even be "black swan events" (will there be more "10/10" events emerging?). However, due to the end of quantitative tightening (QT), this situation may not be as bad as in 2022 and 2018.
I believe order book decentralized exchanges (Orderbook DEXs) will continue to occupy market mindshare, and their token generation events (TGEs) will perform better than the market because they are the "cash cows" of the crypto space. Although the token and revenue data of certain perpetual contract DEXs may be inflated, I do not think this is a bubble (this could be the "famous last words"), as I do not believe that airdrop incentives are unsustainable. In the crypto space, we are accustomed to similar narratives eventually evolving into "euthanasia roller coasters," but I believe we are witnessing real market growth.
Hyperliquid currently has 42.888% of its HYPE token supply allocated for airdrops, and there have been no clear incentives since November 2024. I believe the HYPE airdrop can last for over ten years, while other perpetual contract DEXs may attempt to replicate Hyperliquid's (expected) model by conducting multiple airdrops to avoid depleting resources in one go and losing most users overnight. Besides the DEXs themselves, I also expect most builder applications, including non-Hyperliquid builders and HIP-3 DEXs, to conduct multiple airdrops. Even if they do not, there will be no shortage of new airdrop projects emerging.
3. Predictions from Castle Friends
@joshuacheong - @mantle_official
Real-world assets (RWAs) are moving from the experimental stage to scalable development—from the current market size of about $36 billion, it is expected to reach a trillion-dollar target within this decade. Fixed-income assets have first proven market demand, while tokenized stocks have grown over 100 times in a year, revealing the next growth driver. In 2026, the utilization of assets will be more important than issuance: those assets that can be collateralized for lending, traded around the clock, and reused in decentralized finance (DeFi) will dominate. Institutional adoption will deepen through infrastructures like on-chain settlement and messaging layers, rather than relying on retail-facing brands.
Retail user participation will accelerate as the minimum investment threshold drops from millions of dollars to just a few dollars, while liquidity remains open on weekends. The current 0.01% tokenization penetration rate and the vast gap with the real market size represent potential opportunities. Liquidity fragmentation remains a limiting factor, while interoperability will become the release valve. By 2026, the benchmark for RWAs will no longer be the total value of on-chain assets, but the trading frequency of these assets.
@dabit3 - @eigencloud
Three breakthroughs will occur in 2025:
Cryptocurrencies will gain true legitimacy in traditional finance;
AI agents will achieve real product-market fit with crypto primitives;
x402 will open a new chapter for large-scale internet-native payments. In the past, people often asked, “Why use cryptocurrency for this?” Now, we have a clear answer: “Why not use cryptocurrency?”
@sukiorlove - @chaoslabs
Decentralized finance (DeFi) will only become more complex. Over the past year, market activity has focused on advanced looping trading strategies like Ethena and Pendle, with projects like Maple also beginning to follow similar trading structures.
Yield-bearing stablecoins will diversify significantly: more risk tranching, greater source diversity, and products designed around predictable risk/return models, rather than merely chasing the highest (unadjusted for risk) yields.
DeFi is also showing more layered trends. Assets are starting to behave like L1, lending protocols like L2, while vaults resemble L3—each layer packages risk, liquidity, and composability in different ways. This "stacked abstraction" will significantly enhance market efficiency, especially as more quantitatively skilled participants enter the market, leading to tighter pricing, faster arbitrage, and more efficient capital allocation.
The narrative debate around liquidity fragmentation and risk isolation will continue. There will be no clear "winners" until total locked value (TVL) achieves an order of magnitude increase.
@Oxwizzdom
Privacy technology will become a moat and will be deeply integrated into the emerging crypto space as it matures, from prediction markets to stablecoins, with projects like MiragePrivacy already showcasing early examples of this integration.
New forms of prediction markets will also begin to emerge by the end of 2025, such as projects like Bentodotfun, Predictdotfun, and 42space.
Additionally, the x402 activity on the Solana network will increase rapidly, primarily driven by projects like Tempo and Arc. Most enterprises will prefer Solana's neutrality, which will also drive network activity growth.
Meanwhile, the pace of new L2 protocol releases may slow down as investors, institutions, and users increasingly value product-market fit and practical application over merely pursuing transactions per second (TPS).
@xbteneighty - @theblock__
The high fragmentation of the entire ecosystem (L1s/L2s/DeFi) has led to an increased reliance on interoperability protocols and intent systems.
Stablecoins, perpetual contracts (Perps), and privacy technology have become the focus of institutions and new entrants.
User experience (UX) has improved across the entire tech stack, and non-native users (i.e., ordinary users from outside the crypto space) will become the new primary target audience.
@litocoen - @socketprotocol
I believe we have long been in a bear market; accepting this reality and stopping the comparison of your portfolio to historical peaks (ATH) will make you happier and more successful. Why are we in a bear market? In one word: uncertainty. I need not list all the factors; just look at the current state of the world, and it becomes clear. As key issues are gradually resolved (such as tariffs, wars, quantum computing, etc.) or priced in by the market, this uncertainty will improve over time. But for now, this uncertainty hangs over us like the sword of Damocles.
In addition to being in a bear market, the crypto industry is also experiencing a "power transition." The "bubble year" is over, and Wall Street and Silicon Valley are entering the scene, bringing their price-to-earnings ratios (P/E), customer acquisition costs (CAC), and unit economics. I am personally excited about this new phase. I believe we will see unprecedented acceleration in product development and practicality in the crypto space. Over the past two years, the two outstanding founders of Hyperliquid and Ethena have scaled their products at an astonishing pace, evolving into billion-dollar enterprises and creating better products than those in the crypto industry over the past decade.
As for how to prepare for this new phase in the crypto industry, I do not yet have a clear summary, other than to closely monitor market dynamics and gain a deep understanding of the founders' capabilities. I will share more as my thoughts become clearer. By the way, this does not mean that only banks and Wall Street will benefit from the next era. Far from it. Crypto-native market strategies (such as token incentives, globalization, and a highly active user base) still have advantages, and concepts like privacy are more aligned with product-market fit (PMF) than ever. I just believe that the game will be reshuffled. Some DeFi founders will not adapt to this new phase and will be eliminated; while others will thrive, and new participants will also emerge.
Areas I am optimistic about include:
Credit Sector: Projects like USDai or Daylight issue credit for infrastructure expansion and financing through data model-based investment underwriting.
DeFi Innovation: For example, Fluid enhances capital efficiency by merging money markets and DEX (I believe DEX v2 will make them the top DEX), as well as protocols that make DeFi yields more accessible to the outside world (such as aggregation, tranching, interest rate swaps, etc.).
Exchanges: The trend of "Perpification of Everything" is becoming increasingly evident, with the migration of perpetual contract trading to on-chain becoming very clear. I believe we will see dynamics similar to centralized exchanges (CEX) in the future, ultimately forming five major players. Currently, Hyperliquid is the leader, but Lighter, Extended, Ethereal, and Ostium are also strong competitors (Hyena is not a true competitor as it is built on Hyperliquid).
Prediction Markets: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has decided to legalize prediction markets, marking an important milestone for them. Although prediction markets are not an inherent part of the crypto industry, it makes sense for all major players to use crypto technologies (such as stablecoins, smart contracts for market settlement, and tokenization for composability) as a brand new industry. Polymarket and Kalshi are likely to launch tokens, and we will also see upstream innovations (such as lending markets and specialized terminals like Fireplace.gg).
Neobanks & SuperApps: Integrating all crypto primitives (perpetual contracts, spot, stablecoins, yields) into an easy-to-use but non-custodial mobile app remains a huge potential opportunity, and now is the time.
Of course, there may also be entirely new things emerging—this is not uncommon in this industry. We cannot predict everything, but one thing is certain:
The crypto industry will ultimately prevail.
Tim - DeFi Strategist
This year's market has been like a roller coaster. It started positively, with ETH experiencing a significant pullback due to political factors, then reaching an all-time high (ATH) due to purchases of digital asset trusts (DATs) and a rebound in market confidence, but now the market is starting to decline again. The price range of BTC has stabilized due to the inflow of traditional finance (TradFi) capital.
Looking ahead to next year, I expect BTC's price to fluctuate between $75,000 and $140,000, while ETH will fluctuate between $2,000 and $6,000. The growth of real-world assets (RWAs) and private credit will help diversify on-chain risks, while on-chain yields will continue to decline. DATs in 2026 will focus on transferring assets to vaults to create additional yields for the underlying assets.
@crypto_linn
We have never had more favorable conditions than now, but cryptocurrencies seem to have lost their identity of "fighting against some force." If you feel like you are "struggling" against traditional finance (TradFi) and banks, then enduring market pullbacks becomes much easier, but when they get involved, things get complicated. The entry of TradFi also brings their "traditional finance games"… However, as long as you maintain a bit of patience, you will be rewarded. I expect 2026 to be a year of great achievements, especially for those who stick to dollar-cost averaging (DCA) during market fluctuations.
Moreover, no one can predict what surprises Pendle will bring in 2026.
@deankd - @rwaxyz
Currently, the U.S. is leading in the tokenization space, but Europe, especially Germany, is rapidly capturing market share. The market capitalization of stablecoins in Germany has grown from about $500 million in 2025 to nearly $4 billion, largely driven by the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, attracting more institutional demand.
We will see traditional institutions and commercial banks launch a large number of tokenized money market funds. Existing institutions have realized that tokenization can enhance liquidity and reduce operational costs, making it an obvious evolutionary direction.
The value of tokenized private credit could double as issuers find that representing off-chain loans on-chain can significantly improve operational efficiency.
In my view, 2026 will be the breakout year for tokenized U.S. stocks. In contrast, corporate bonds may remain relatively sluggish, as the existing market structure is "good enough" for most issuers.
Overall, institutional interest has shifted from "Should we explore tokenization?" to "How quickly can we act?" I communicate daily with banks, regulators, and asset management companies—it's clear that more liquidity is preparing to enter this space, especially in the first half of 2026.
Currently, most tokenized assets face B2B go-to-market (GTM) issues rather than technical issuance issues. I predict that the biggest changes in the tokenization space in 2026 will be reflected in GTM strategies rather than the technology itself. Many overlook basic growth principles, such as being buyer-centric rather than asset-centric. Institutions will not buy any "tokenized assets"; they will only purchase assets that comply with their regulatory and custody restrictions.
@wajahat - @spreads_fi
Overall View on Yields (Stablecoins and Other Yield Assets):
Yields are gradually becoming commoditized, so simply offering high annual percentage rates (APRs) is no longer enough for a business, protocol, or asset issuer to stand out. Nowadays, few yield products can establish a true moat. Everything revolves around distribution capability.
However, there are still some exceptions, such as yield categories that are completely inaccessible in normal times:
Rysk (Options Yield)
Yield Basis (AMM Yield, No Impermanent Loss)
Neutrl (OTC Yield)
We will see various peculiar and interesting yield products emerging from the Web2 space, such as private credit and insurance yields.
DeFi yields are entirely speculative. If market demand for leverage in cryptocurrencies and speculative interest declines, yields will collapse to the level of Treasury bill rates (T-Bill rate).
When people start speculating on BTC again, and when BTC finally begins to show some upward trends (green candlesticks), yields can be expected to rise again!
Expectations for DeFi in 2026:
2026 will welcome a massive ecosystem of tokenized stocks. Not only in terms of asset issuance, but I believe we will also see automated market makers (AMMs), order books, derivatives, yield products, etc., for almost every stock on-chain, operating as smoothly and simply as purchasing ETH on-chain today. (Spreads will also continue to delve into and develop in this area.)
@blueclarityone - @layerzero_core
In 2025, marketing in the crypto industry will be more mature than in any previous year. As the industry enters the early adoption phase, the role of marketing is shifting from proving relevance and attracting attention to winning trust. We see a clear differentiation: on one hand, algorithm-driven short-term tactics aimed at achieving virality; on the other hand, brand strategies that focus more on long-term positioning and expansion, targeting audiences beyond the traditional DeFi core user base.
More and more large crypto brands are investing in traditional marketing channels, such as email, paid social media, research reports, and an increasingly active presence on LinkedIn. As crypto technology is effectively validated in 2025, the acceleration of institutional and financial services adoption is driving a lot of co-marketing (logo x logo) among brands seeking to establish credibility and alignment with established brands outside of DeFi, a momentum that will continue into 2026.
Meanwhile, marketing messages are shifting from product-centric narratives to more emotionally resonant and identity-driven directions, as audiences grow weary of superficial metrics, blockchain jargon, and marginal performance hype. While attention-grabbing gimmicks are fading, brand mindshare remains a key metric of brand relevance and voice share, which will not disappear in the marketing field.
I am most interested in how user acquisition strategies will evolve next. For a new type of digital bank (neobank) supported by crypto technology, there is an opportunity to gain significant market share through proper execution and by borrowing strategies from traditional banks.
@hufhaus9 - @pear_protocol
Core View for 2026: Intensified Return Differentiation Between Quality and Poor Assets
Assets like BTC have structural buyers, such as ETF allocations. Additionally, the decision of traditional financial companies (TradFi) to increase asset allocation ratios from 1% to 3% could have a significant impact. At the same time, protocols that can generate income can expand their product range to enter previously inaccessible stocks and other real-world assets (RWAs) due to high regulatory barriers.
However, many of the top 100 projects still have a large number of tokens to be released, and this supply lacks marginal buyers. It is expected that by 2026, BTC's market dominance (BTC.d) will find a bottom around 60% and continue to rise throughout the year. The strategy of "going long on BTC / shorting poor assets" will be validated in both bull and bear markets.
Other thematic long-short strategies I am optimistic about include:
Going long on MNT / shorting BNB: This strategy is worth noting as Bybit actively competes for market share in centralized exchanges (CEX) and integrates MNT's utility more deeply into its ecosystem.
In the DEX (decentralized exchange) space, competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and we will continue to see innovations around optimizing collateral and its yields.
The combination of centralized limit order books (CLOBs) with DeFi tools is very interesting, and this trend will continue to evolve. Projects like Nado, Extended, and Hyperliquid are redefining the value proposition for users choosing to trade on these platforms.
Overall, I maintain a cautious outlook on the macro environment, expecting BTC's price to find a bottom between $65,000 and $70,000 and gradually recover around the mid-term elections in November 2026.
I hope you enjoy these unfiltered thoughts and predictions for the coming year! Have a good rest during the holidays, and see you next year!
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