Invest in a market-cap-weighted cryptocurrency index fund to invest in the entire market.

Written by: Matt Hougan

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

There is one thing I firmly believe about cryptocurrency, which directly influences my investment strategy.

There is an interesting phenomenon in this industry: many people you encounter express absolute certainty about everything.

"Ethereum is better than Solana; it will definitely dominate in the future."

"Solana is stronger than Ethereum; it will surely win in the long run."

"Bitcoin is the only one worth paying attention to."

Every time I hear these statements, I feel a bit surprised.

I have been working full-time in the cryptocurrency industry for eight years, and I have about 140 colleagues with whom I frequently discuss various ideas, as well as regular interactions with top venture capitalists, founders, researchers, and foundations. I am quite familiar with these circles.

Even so, I cannot confidently tell you which public chain will ultimately prevail in the future or how things will specifically develop.

In my view, at this stage of development, the future of cryptocurrency remains full of uncertainties. The final outcome will be influenced by regulatory policies, execution capabilities, macro environments, decisions made by a few key individuals, luck, and hundreds of other variables. Accurately predicting all of this would require superpowers.

Those who speak with such certainty, I feel, are more self-persuading.

So how do I invest?

In the face of this uncertainty, my approach is simple: invest in the entire market.

Specifically, I buy market-cap-weighted cryptocurrency index funds.

Why? Because the one thing I am most convinced of in the cryptocurrency field is that ten years from now, the importance of cryptocurrency will far exceed that of today.

I believe stablecoins will become more important, asset tokenization will become more significant, and Bitcoin will also gain more importance. Additionally, there will be more than a dozen important application scenarios that will emerge: prediction markets, decentralized finance (DeFi), privacy technologies, digital identity, new forms of equity, and so on.

In my view, it is not difficult for the entire cryptocurrency market to grow 10 to 20 times in scale over the next decade.

Don't believe it? Just a few days ago, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said in an interview with Fox Business that he expects all U.S. stock markets to migrate on-chain "within a few years." That represents a stock market value of $68 trillion. Currently, the total value of tokenized stocks is only about $670 million. This means there is nearly 100,000 times the growth potential.

I want to be part of this trend.

But the key is: I don't want to risk choosing the wrong public chain. Just imagine, even if you accurately predict that a certain market will grow 100,000 times, if you bet on the wrong chain, you could still end up with poor returns.

Therefore, I make cryptocurrency index funds the core of my investment portfolio, using only a small portion of my funds for individual directional bets. This way, regardless of how the industry develops, I can capture potential winners and sleep soundly at night.

By 2026, cryptocurrency index funds will become increasingly important. The market is becoming more complex, and application scenarios are becoming more diverse. While it may not be suitable for everyone, for many, it is a great starting choice.

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