Losing retail investors are trading, while profitable retail investors are resting.

CN
1 day ago

The more frequently you trade, the less you stop, and the harder it becomes to sustain profits.

Author: Pickle Cat

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Want to stop losing money in the cryptocurrency market? First, stop your day trading!

Because for the average investor, day trading is structurally a "scam."

This article is long, but if you are willing to spend 120 seconds reading it, I guarantee you will thank yourself years later.

I started trading in my teenage years.

I had victories that made me feel like "Batman," and I also experienced painful failures that shattered me inside and that I am still recovering from.

I have tried every trading strategy that an average investor can find.

For an entire year, I was obsessed with day trading, thinking it would allow me to turn things around, but I failed so miserably that every recollection of it stings.

My profit and loss statement (PNL) was so bad that the money I made from the Bitcoin automatic purchase plan I set up for my grandmother was more than what I earned.

Later, I transitioned into a low-frequency swing trader, rarely adjusting my positions. After making a profit, I would decisively exit and then pause trading for a while.

It was only then that my life began to improve, and everything started to become clear.

I am not a saint. I write this to save that young, foolish, naive, and impulsive version of myself.

First, as an average day trader, you are engaging in high-frequency trading without any informational advantage (no real order flow, no clear liquidity map, no market maker position information, no execution advantage, nothing).

If you only trade a few times each quarter, you might survive.

But what if you trade more than 10 times a week?

Even if you possess the world's strongest "discipline" and "risk management" skills, mathematics will ultimately lead you to a crushing defeat.

The reason average investors fail is not that they have never won, but that they have never stopped. The only outcome of high-frequency trading is: destruction.

This is why I set up a "penalty system" for myself; if I exceed the quarterly trading limit, I will be penalized.

Every significant loss I have experienced was due to continuing to trade after a big win instead of stopping in time.

All my big wins (and the victories that truly allowed me to keep the money for a long time) came because I seized a major market movement and then chose to rest and remain calm.

This pattern is so obvious, it hurts.

"Winning" is not about suddenly making a lot of money; true "winning" is being able to keep that money rather than losing it all the following year.

Now I see 14-year-olds on TikTok calling themselves day traders, drawing a few lines on TradingView, thinking that by buying some "master's" course or joining a Discord group, they have mastered some executable trading system.

This disgusts me. If they knew they were gambling, I wouldn't mind; at least they would be aware they are playing a game.

But the current day trading craze is even bigger than the "shopping agent craze" of 2016 and 2017. And we all know how that craze ended.

People underestimate the difficulty of trading while severely overestimating their own abilities.

The problem is not just mathematical. Yes, the more frequently you trade, the less you stop, and the harder it becomes to sustain profits.

The real issue is that young average traders truly believe that as long as they have "discipline" and "risk management," they are not gambling at all. They think day trading is a "skill" that can be executed like a daily habit.

This applies not only to cryptocurrency day trading but also to the U.S. stock market and almost all other markets.

High-frequency trading is only suitable for institutions.

Take the U.S. stock market as an example.

Do you know what institutional traders do not look at? Candlestick charts and TradingView.

They use Bloomberg terminals, which contain data that average investors will never see.

Of course, you might already know this. But 14 to 18-year-olds do not. They think their indicators are the same tools that all traders use.

This is the real danger.

If you know you are gambling, at least a part of you will know when to stop.

But once you believe this is a "system," you will never be able to stop.

You will keep clicking until the market has completely drained you.

Day Trading: A Casino Disguised as a Café

It really is like a disguised casino.

When you walk into Las Vegas or Macau, you know what kind of place you are entering. You see the lights, the gambling tables, the dealers, the noisy sounds. Your brain immediately realizes: this is gambling.

But today's day trading is like a casino disguised as a café.

Novice traders walk in thinking they are there to "learn a skill," unaware that they are sitting at a table specifically designed to slowly drain them.

So they won't stop.

This is the essence of the entire tragedy, not the losses themselves.

What is truly sad is that they really believe they are not gambling; it is this belief that keeps them going until they lose everything.

As for those average traders who seem to be "making money" (like I once did)… honestly, most of them just caught a wave of market movement.

They had good luck at the right time, combined with a bit of discipline learned from previous losses, which finally taught them to stop after winning.

Even so, such lucky individuals make up less than one percent of all average traders.

Making money in trading is not actually difficult; the real challenge is how to keep that money.

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