Big Brother Maji said, "Just be happy," which reflects the carefree attitude of wealthy gamblers; ordinary people should not emulate this.

Big Brother Maji, a former artist and tech entrepreneur, is now a whale in the cryptocurrency space. He staged a jaw-dropping wealth rollercoaster on the Hyperliquid exchange.

With aggressive leverage strategies, he once pushed his account to nearly $60 million (with unrealized gains exceeding $44 million).

However, driven by the "gambler's fallacy" and the "disposition effect," he ignored the market reversal, frantically added positions, and tried to defy mathematical laws.

Ultimately, within 47 days, he fell from his peak to just $1,718, losing all his capital, vividly and brutally illustrating the end of the "gambler's bankruptcy theorem."

To understand this defeat, one must grasp three concepts: random walk, absorption wall, and negative drift.

① Random Walk

Imagine a drunk man walking in a straight line. He flips a coin; heads means he moves forward (making money), tails means he steps back (losing money).

Big Brother Maji's experience is essentially the steps of the drunk man. In the short term, he might flip heads consecutively, sprinting forward, with assets soaring to $60 million. But this does not mean he is exceptional; it is merely luck.

② Absorption Wall

The path the drunk man walks is asymmetrical on both sides.

On the left is a high wall (the market): composed of the total funds in the market. For an individual, it is almost infinitely far away. You cannot win all the money in the market and make it "bankrupt."

On the right is a cliff (you): this is your capital's zero point. For Big Brother Maji, this point is finite.

As long as the game continues, the drunk man always has a chance to step back continuously. Once he reaches the cliff (capital goes to zero), he falls off. Falling off means "being absorbed"—the game is over, and you no longer have a chance to recover.

Because the opponent (the market) is infinite, and you are finite, given enough time, you will 100% fall off the cliff.

This is the "gambler's bankruptcy theorem."

③ Negative Drift

If it were just flipping a coin (with a 50% win rate), it might take a long time for the drunk man to fall off. But in casinos and cryptocurrency contracts, there are fees and slippage, like a strong wind blowing the drunk man toward the cliff. This is negative drift.

Under negative drift, the mathematical expectation is negative. Big Brother Maji paid hundreds of thousands of dollars just in funding fees this round.

So, why did his account show unrealized gains of $44.84 million on September 18, yet he didn't stop? Why did he lose all his capital? The reasons are as follows:

a. Leverage. Leverage brings the distant "cliff" right in front of you—just a 4% reverse fluctuation (with 25x leverage) can lead to a fall.

b. Martingale strategy. Using limited "bullets" to continuously add positions (doubling down) to counteract the infinite market decline inevitably leads to a broken capital chain, crashing against the absorption wall.

c. Mental accounting. Why didn't he take profits when he was making a lot? Because in the gambler's mindset, that $44 million is "casino money," and losing it is not regrettable.

Big Brother Maji said, "Just be happy," which reflects the carefree attitude of wealthy gamblers; ordinary people should not emulate this.

Here are three life algorithms:

1. Engage in "Positive Expectation"

Contracts and gambling are negative expectation games; avoid them unless you are spending money for thrills.

Invest in "serious" indices, hold quality assets with EV > 0, and befriend time.

Duan Yongping said that ordinary people can make money by investing in the S&P 500 because the market has "positive drift."

2. Stay Away from "Absorption Walls"

Staying alive is the top priority. Stay away from leverage; don’t let volatility push you off the cliff.

3. Set a "Stop Line"

Speculators must realize profits and cut losses. Otherwise, according to the gambler's bankruptcy theorem, the outcome is zero.

Value investors should use disposable income they can afford to lose to wait for positive drift.

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