Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The recent market is shrouded in multiple uncertainties related to the economy, technology, and geopolitics. One of the focal points is the growing concern over the AI bubble, highlighted by Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel's latest moves. His Thiel Macro LLC fund completely liquidated its holdings in Nvidia, considered a leader in AI, in the third quarter, significantly reducing its total U.S. stock holdings from $212 million to $74.4 million, while establishing new positions in Microsoft and Apple. This move is seen as a warning signal regarding the short-term overheating of AI. Such concerns are not isolated; Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has also warned that the market may face a correction in the next 12 to 24 months, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos described the AI craze as an "industrial bubble." Despite the short-term risks, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about structural trends in its ten-year outlook, believing that artificial intelligence and emerging markets will define the next decade, predicting an annual growth rate of 7.7% for global stock markets.

Meanwhile, the upcoming release of the October FOMC meeting minutes by the Federal Reserve is expected to show a "hawkish" outlook, with market expectations for a rate cut in December dropping below 50%. Additionally, key economic data such as the delayed September non-farm payroll report and third-quarter GDP, which were held up due to the U.S. government shutdown, will be released, providing a delayed economic snapshot. Globally, the Japanese stock market is showing initial signs of fatigue, with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.52%, and travel-related stocks suffering due to China's travel advisory.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is facing severe tests, with its price briefly dropping below $93,000, erasing all gains for 2025. The core drivers of this decline include reduced institutional participation, a "risk-off" macro environment, and a high correlation with tech stocks—its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has risen to 0.80, the highest since 2022. Analysts have differing views, creating a complex situation of mixed bullish and bearish sentiments. Analyst Ash Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin closed below the 50-week moving average for the first time since March 2023; if it can hold this level, it may become a temporary bottom. If BTC closes above $103,000, it could avoid further risks. Open4profit provided two scenarios: a drop to $92,773 or a rebound to $99,523. Some analysts hold a pessimistic outlook; AlphaBTC believes the market may experience one last round of selling before key data is released, with prices potentially falling below $90,000. However, optimistic voices also exist, with Kim Yong-hoon, regarded as the smartest person in the world, predicting Bitcoin will reach $220,000 within 45 days; analysts Sykodelic and Astronomer believe the market bottom is forming and have begun building long positions, targeting $108,000 and $112,000, respectively. Crypto Chase is also gradually building positions, with a target price of $110,000. Notably, despite the weak prices, institutions like Harvard University and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority are still increasing their Bitcoin holdings through ETFs.

Ethereum's performance is largely in sync with Bitcoin, with its price briefly dropping to the $3,000 mark. Despite facing short-term pressure, some analysts see potential opportunities. For instance, analyst Crypto Chase is gradually building long positions in Ethereum, setting a target price of $4,000, believing the current pullback provides space for a rebound. Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, offered a more macro perspective, stating that the current market decline exposes issues such as the fragility of some market makers' balance sheets, but these growing pains are temporary and will not change Wall Street's long-term goal of building an "ETH super cycle." He specifically warned that the current environment is not suitable for using leverage and predicted that internal market issues may take 6 to 8 weeks to resolve.

However, the market is not in complete collapse; Zcash (ZEC) has shown a remarkable independent trend, with its correlation to the market dropping to between -0.7 and -0.8, with its price driven entirely by its own narrative, especially after Starknet proposed building an L2 solution for it, bringing renewed attention to the privacy sector. This phenomenon of divergence confirms analyst Aylo's view that the market is entering a "post-speculation era," where tokens lacking fundamentals and real value are being discarded, while projects with product-market fit will stand out. Meanwhile, the de-pegging incident of the Yala stablecoin has also sounded a risk alarm for the market.

2. Key Data (as of November 17, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $95,086.8 (YTD +2.0%), daily spot trading volume $78.47 billion

• Ethereum: $3,178 (YTD -4.8%), daily spot trading volume $33.75 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 15 (Extreme Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 11.9%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, XRP, ETH, SOL, WCT

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.99%/52.01%

• Sector performance: AI sector down 2.67%, DePIN sector down 2.33%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 151,811 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $620 million, including $244 million in BTC, $170 million in ETH, and $31.87 million in ZEC.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 14)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$492 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$177.9 million

• Solana ETF: +$12.04 million, net inflow for 14 consecutive days

• XRP ETF: +$243 million

• Hedera ETF: -$1.71 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Coinbase: Monad token sale will start on November 17

• Acurast plans to launch its mainnet and issue token ACU on November 17

• YouTube will strengthen enforcement against gambling and violent content starting November 17, involving digital goods and NFTs

• Binance Alpha plans to launch Datagram Network (DGRAM) on November 18

• WLFI Treasury Company Alt5 Sigma will release its financial report on November 18

Today's largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: Dash down 10%, Internet Computer down 7.9%, Monero down 7.1%, Pump.fun down 7%, Aerodrome Finance down 6.9%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as ZRO, YZY, and ZK will see significant unlocks, with ZRO unlocking worth approximately $38.3 million

• This Week's Macro Outlook: The first non-farm payroll report after the shutdown arrives, and the crypto market may continue to face pressure

• This Week's Preview | The UK Supreme Court will hold a hearing on the disposal of 60,000 Bitcoins in the case of Qian Zhimin; Ethereum Devconnect opens

• Yala stablecoin YU plummets nearly 39%, with main trading pairs trading less than $12,000 in 24 hours

• On Hyperliquid, ZEC ranks first in short positions with unrealized losses exceeding $22.04 million

• ZachXBT: Cardano users have lost over $6 million due to low liquidity trading

• Father of Smart Contracts Nic Carter: Investors face significant challenges in this cycle, suggesting emotional "decoupling" from cryptocurrencies

• Bitwise CEO: The four-year Bitcoin cycle has been broken, and 2026 remains undefined

• Peter Schiff: MSTR's stock price has fallen 64% from last year's peak, with a $4.75 billion purchase of 640,000 Bitcoins yielding only a 27% paper profit

• Arthur Hayes suspected of selling $2.45 million worth of ETH, ENA, LDO, AAVE, and UNI again

• Glassnode: Only 5% of the supply of the top 500 altcoins is in profit

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