The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has fallen below 50%. The market should focus on economic data reports after the U.S. government reopens.

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.26 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.7%, valued at $1.91 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $304.2 billion, which has decreased by 0.41% over the past week. Notably, the number of stablecoins has seen negative growth for three consecutive weeks, with USDT making up 60.44%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen. Notable gainers include: STRK with a 7-day increase of 72.26%, DRC with a 7-day increase of 65.91%, ZEC with a 7-day increase of 26.84%, B with a 7-day increase of 26.63%, and MET with a 7-day increase of 19.58%.

This week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.111 billion; the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $729 million.

Market Forecast (November 17 - November 21):

The current RSI index is 43.52 (neutral range), and the fear and greed index is at 9 (lower than last week, indicating extreme fear), while the altcoin season index is at 39 (lower than last week).

BTC core range: $97,000 - $110,000

ETH core range: $3,000 - $4,000

SOL core range: $140 - $175

Market sentiment: Over the past year, there have only been 11 days of "extreme fear." Looking back at past candlestick trends, these 11 days have all been "golden opportunities." Does the investment theory of "buy in fear, sell in greed" still hold? After all, we are now at the "end of the 4-year cycle of crypto tradition"! On-chain data indicates that BTC is still in a moderately bearish phase, with a dense supply zone between $106,000 and $118,000 where many investors tend to sell, creating strong resistance. The $100,000 level is an important psychological barrier, while $97,000 is the bottom support of the range.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has fallen below 50%. The market should focus on economic data reports after the U.S. government reopens.

For conservative investors: Accumulate positions gradually on dips or maintain ample cash; do not go "all in"!

For active traders: Within the current clear range of fluctuations, consider taking small long positions near support levels and reducing positions or shorting near resistance levels. Be sure to set stop-loss orders.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events This Week

1. On November 10, U.S. media reported that the U.S. Senate had reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown";
2. On November 11, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that given the softening labor market and declining inflation, the Fed should cut rates by 50 basis points in December. He believes that a 25 basis point cut is the "minimum appropriate action";
3. On November 10, Coinbase announced on social media that the public sale of Monad tokens would start on November 17;
4. On November 12, Solana-based digital asset reserve and consumer goods brand Upexi reported "record" quarterly results, with digital asset revenue exceeding $6 million, driving overall gross profit to $8.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 183%;
5. On November 12, Coinbase and stablecoin infrastructure startup BVNK terminated a $2 billion acquisition agreement. If completed, this would have been one of the largest mergers in cryptocurrency history and would significantly expand Coinbase's institutional stablecoin business;
6. On November 12, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins outlined his plan for a crypto "token classification" system to clearly distinguish which cryptocurrencies are considered securities, while the SEC is advancing digital asset regulation in a new way;
7. On November 14, the crypto market was hit hard again, with Bitcoin dropping to $98,000 this morning, currently reported at $100,294, and Ethereum falling below $3,200, currently reported at $3,252. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 2.0% in nearly 24 hours, currently reported at $3.45 trillion. All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 2.3%, the Dow down 1.6%, and the S&P 500 down 1.6%, with all U.S. crypto concept stocks declining;
8. On November 14, Musk stated, "X has just launched a whole new set of communication features, including encrypted messaging, audio and video calls, and file transfers. X Money is coming soon";
9. On November 14, according to Coinglass data, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours rose to $748 million, with long positions liquidated at $596 million and short positions liquidated at $152 million.

Macroeconomics

1. On November 14, hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials dampened market hopes for a rate cut in December, coupled with a still chaotic data calendar and concerns over an AI bubble, leading to a severe blow to global stock and precious metals markets on Friday;
2. On November 15, according to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 39.8%.

ETF

Statistics show that from November 10 to November 14, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.111 billion; as of November 14, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $24.638 billion, currently holding $16.091 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $75.162 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $126.787 billion.

The U.S. Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $729,000.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. Devconnect will be held from November 17 to 22, 2025, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This important technical event will gather key participants from the Ethereum ecosystem. During the event, Ethereum builders, educators, and protocol teams will promote innovation and development in blockchain technology through practical courses, in-depth technical lectures, and community-led workshops;
2. Bitcoin MENA will take place from December 8 to 9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC);
3. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held from December 11 to 13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. Berachain plans to launch a claims page for Balancer v2 / BEX vulnerability victims before November 16 and will conduct a fork to unlock the BEX contract at the virtual machine level;
2. WLFI financial strategy public company ALT5 Sigma will release a new financial report on November 18;
3. The airdrop claim window for the AI agent project Capx AI will close on November 20 at 7:59.

Important Events

1. On November 18 at 8:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting;
2. On November 20 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 (in ten thousand);
3. On November 20 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;
4. On November 21 at 23:00, the University of Michigan will release the final consumer confidence index for November.

Token Unlocking

1. Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens on November 18, valued at approximately $3.74 million, accounting for 5.04% of the circulating supply;

2. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 26.72 million tokens on November 20, valued at approximately $38.05 million, accounting for 7.29% of the circulating supply;

3. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 8.35 million tokens on November 20, valued at approximately $6.46 million, accounting for 2.97% of the circulating supply;

4. SOON (SOON) will unlock 15.21 million tokens on November 23, valued at approximately $29.51 million, accounting for 4.33% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.

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