Author: Crypto Trader ????????????????????????

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

MegaETH will launch its public sale today (October 27) at 21:00 (UTC+8) on the Sonar platform under Echo. The total supply of MegaETH is 10 billion tokens, with 500 million tokens available in this public sale, and the payment method is USDT.

In this public sale, users can bid through an English auction, with the highest bid reaching up to $186,282 and the lowest at $2,650. The starting price is $0.0001 (FDV of $1 million), and the maximum cap price is $0.0999 (FDV of $999 million).

Recently (especially today), discussions about the public sale of the Ethereum scaling solution MegaETH have been increasing on crypto Twitter, with the public eagerly anticipating. What is the real reason driving this craze? Is this public sale really worth participating in? Crypto Trader ???????????????????????? posted an analysis of this public sale on the X platform, and here are the details.

Recently, the only area where retail investors can profit is probably through Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs):

(Related reading: Four Popular Launchpads Compete for New Listings: Oversubscription is Common, Over 70% of Projects Still Yield Positive Returns)

• $PUMP: Any size of trade can yield 1.5 times the profit
• $XPL: Any size of trade can yield over 2 times the profit
• $YB: Trading within the cap can yield 4 times the profit

Memes have nearly vanished, and the market cap of altcoins continues to hit new lows, while the crash on October 11 further drained retail funds. Holding tokens randomly in the market is a bad idea.

But what about just holding stablecoins and participating in ICOs? You can double or triple the returns on your entire portfolio in just 2-3 months.

Market sentiment has changed. We have officially entered the ICO era—just like every previous cycle.

Echo itself is also currently in a frenzy of speculation. Why? Because of the last sale: $XPL (Plasma).

In the public sale of $XPL, for every $1 deposited, you could earn $1.5 in profit, with no cap. The project ultimately surged 30 times, with an oversubscription of 20 times. This means that for every $1,000 deposited, you could buy $XPL at a valuation of $500 million, and after listing, its market cap reached $15 billion: a 30-fold increase in market cap.

The best part of the $XPL public sale was that anyone could participate. Regardless of whether you had an on-chain trading history, influence, or connections to the ecosystem. As long as you passed Echo's KYC and deposited funds (first come, first served, but there is a 30-minute time window in the second phase).

So, why was the $XPL public sale so profitable, and will $MEGA be the same? Will everyone profit this time?

In short: No. Here’s why:

$XPL was profitable because there wasn't much hype around Echo or ICOs at that time. They raised $1 billion, which was equivalent to a 20-fold oversubscription. There was no multiple allocation; funds were distributed equally.

For $MEGA, Polymarket's valuation is over $2.5 billion, actually closer to $3 to $4 billion. This equates to an oversubscription of 60 to 80 times. The pre-listing valuation is only about 4.5 times.

This means that if funds are distributed equally, every $1 deposited will yield about $0.04 in return.

Now compare this to $XPL, where every $1 deposited yielded $1.5 in return, resulting in a profit difference of about 37.5 times.

Thus, the team states that the minimum allocation amount is $2,650 per person, meaning at least $10,000 can be earned.

But let’s do the math:

• If everyone receives the minimum allocation of $2,650, there would be 18,867 eligible participants.
• If the average allocation amount is $5,000, there would be 10,000 winners.
• Meanwhile, 100,000 people registered in one day, and the total number of applicants is expected to reach 400,000 to 500,000.

This means that only about 1 in 50 people will receive an allocation.

In other words, you can't just invest stablecoins and pray. Even if you invest $180,000, if you're not selected, you get nothing.

I personally believe the team will prioritize specific user groups and reward them appropriately, rather than simply allocating 4% of their deposits to everyone.

So, who will receive allocations?

• If you meet their priority criteria (high media exposure, long on-chain trading history), you can easily earn $10,000 to $30,000 in a day.
• If you are a true MegaETH veteran user, it is obviously worth participating.
• If you are just casually trying your luck with stablecoins, don’t expect to make money.

Standards

So, as is customary in the crypto industry: if you are not an early participant, you can only exit the liquidity market.

The best time to fully engage in the ICO craze was with $XPL. If you are just waking up to this now—it's too late.

Ultimately, the $MEGA public sale is not a lottery but a filter. Its design is intended to eliminate the masses and leave real profit opportunities for specific groups.

Don’t confuse hype with opportunity; this is not a second $XPL, but rather the public's FOMO: 95% of people will end up with nothing, while 5% can earn moderately.

And the harsh reality is—you should know which category you belong to.

Related reading: In-depth Analysis of MegaETH: Redefining "Real-time Blockchain" Innovator Layer 2

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