Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On the macro front, U.S. President Trump stated on Tuesday that Washington is considering terminating some trade relations with China, including trade related to edible oils, as the U.S.-China trade war continues. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy. In his speech, Powell elaborated on the role of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its policy tools during the pandemic. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve will continue to adjust monetary policy based on economic outlook and risk balance, rather than following a preset path. Powell also indicated that the balance sheet reduction may end in the coming months. The market generally views Powell's remarks as dovish, somewhat offsetting the impact of the trade war.

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has once again experienced turbulence, with a total market capitalization decline of 2.03%. Bitcoin's price briefly approached $110,000 before rebounding with the rise of U.S. stocks. This follows another drop after last week's significant sell-off, highlighting the market's volatility and fragility. Noted trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt stated that Bitcoin could reach a new historical high of $125,100 next week, but would experience a significant correction beforehand. He does not rule out a more pessimistic market trend. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde believes that after recent leverage liquidations, there is a constructive optimism towards Bitcoin, but patience is required. Traders are recovering from forced sell-offs, and short-term liquidity may remain low, but such leverage liquidations often indicate a market bottom. The current price level is highly attractive for increasing BTC spot positions. Coupled with favorable conditions including expectations of loose policies, high institutional demand, and ETF-related catalysts, the current situation is conducive to gradually accumulating Bitcoin. Glassnode's weekly market report also pointed out that despite the severe impact of the crash, the overall market structure remains intact. Bitcoin's spot trading volume continues to be high, with ongoing ETF inflows, and the adjusted on-chain transfer volume indicates strong on-chain activity. These dynamics suggest that while leveraged participants are forced to exit, structural capital and institutional demand still exist. The market is currently in a consolidation phase, characterized by a return to caution, selective risk-taking, and a more prudent rebuilding of confidence in both the spot and derivatives markets.

Ethereum is currently priced at $4,114, nearly below the average cost of all Ethereum treasury companies, but some treasury companies are still increasing their positions against the trend, such as SharpLink increasing its holdings to 840,124 ETH and BitMine adding 26,199 ETH. However, on-chain activity has significantly declined after the "10.11 crash." The current average Gas fee for Ethereum is only 0.11 Gwei, indicating a cooling of trading activity. In terms of market views, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes insisted in a recent podcast interview that they predict ETH prices will reach $10,000 this year. Additionally, according to Cointelegraph, the current staking volume of Ethereum accounts for 29.39% of the total supply, while spot ETFs and Ethereum DATs hold 5.66% and 4.88% of Ethereum, respectively. Together, these three account for 39.93% of Ethereum's total supply. Meanwhile, this week, the Kingdom of Bhutan announced plans to build its national identity verification system on Ethereum. However, the country currently does not hold any ETH. Therefore, there is reason to expect that national reserves may join the Ethereum bidding camp.

In the past week, there has been a massive outflow of assets from centralized exchanges (CEX), with Binance experiencing an outflow of $21.75 billion within seven days. Investors remain in a state of panic and need time to recover. Matrixport analyzed in today's chart that recent market volatility has intensified, but stablecoin funds continue to flow in, reflecting that the market still has strong resilience. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs achieved net inflows on October 14: Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $103 million yesterday, while Ethereum spot ETF had a total net inflow of $236 million yesterday. The flow of funds and structural demand indicate that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a transitional phase of adjustment and recovery.

2. Key Data (as of October 10, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $112,475 (Year-to-date +20.21%), daily spot trading volume $90.82 billion
• Ethereum: $4,118 (Year-to-date +23.37%), daily spot trading volume $63.26 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 34 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.11 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 13.0%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, XRP, BTC, SOL, DOGE
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.45%/50.55%
• Sector performance: AI sector up 11.27%, NFT sector up 2.33%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 184,803 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $614 million, including $142 million in BTC liquidations, $211 million in ETH liquidations, and $38.63 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($117,145.37), lower line ($114,825.66)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($4,252.15), lower line ($4,167.95)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 14)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$102 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$236 million

4. Today's Outlook

• BNB Chain Wallet browser extension will officially be discontinued on October 15
• Kinto announces closure and orderly liquidation
• Ark of Panda (AOP) will unlock approximately 640 million tokens, accounting for 32% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $38.6 million.
• Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 121 million tokens, accounting for 1.21% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $32.76 million.
• KULA (KULA) will unlock approximately 526 million tokens, accounting for 5.26% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $268 million.
• Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 163 million tokens, accounting for 1.63% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $19.39 million.
• Sign (SIGN) will unlock approximately 290 million tokens, accounting for 2.9% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $21.31 million.
• The U.S. will release CPI data.

The largest gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: COAI up 123%, ZEC up 12.8%, TAO up 11.5%, XPL up 8.1%, 2Z up 5.1%.

5. Hot News

• New York City Mayor Eric Adams establishes the first mayor-level digital asset and blockchain office in the U.S.
• A new Republican bill in the U.S. aims to legally establish Trump's executive order allowing 401(k) investments in cryptocurrencies
• Japanese regulators plan to ban insider trading in cryptocurrencies
• Citi Group CEO states support for tokenized deposits, emphasizes that the market is overly focused on stablecoins
• After the 10.11 flash crash, the open interest of Perp DEX plummeted from $26 billion to less than $14 billion
• Analysis: The U.S. government may lead the theft of the LuBian mining pool, which would be the largest financial hack in history if true
• SBF claims he is being politically persecuted by the Biden administration
• Crypto-native tipping protocol Noice discloses investment from Coinbase Ventures and Network School

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