The global market has entered a high-risk moment due to Trump.

Source: Jinshi Data

On Monday morning, spot gold briefly surged to $4060 per ounce, setting a new historical high, and as of the time of writing, it has fallen to around $4040 per ounce.

It is noteworthy that the financial market experienced significant turbulence after the market opened on Monday. As market concerns eased slightly, after the financial market opened at 6:00 AM this morning, spot gold fluctuated nearly $40, briefly dropping below $4000 per ounce before rebounding sharply; New York copper futures rose over 2%; WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil saw increases close to 3%; U.S. stock index futures rebounded, with Nasdaq futures rising over 1%; Bitcoin surged nearly $1000 in a short time, while safe-haven assets like the yen weakened and the dollar strengthened.

Last Friday, after Trump posted on social media, $2 trillion in U.S. stock market value was wiped out, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.7% that day, marking the worst performance since early April. The truth of this event indicates that Trump's dictatorial trade policies still have an influential impact on the fate of the global economy.

Recently, the significant drop in risk assets is rare, which itself may be a factor in the discordant response to trade tensions. Since the collapse triggered by tariffs in April, the S&P 500 index has soared due to optimism about artificial intelligence and hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The current valuation of the index is close to one of the highest in 25 years, leaving little buffer space for bad news.

Michael O’Rourke from JonesTrading stated, "Throughout the summer, greed in the U.S. stock market far exceeded fear, and the high level of complacency made investors vulnerable. The sell-off could evolve into a larger-scale adjustment."

Chris Zaccarelli from Northlight Capital Management pointed out that October is indeed one of the most turbulent months, and the anticipated sell-off has finally arrived. He stated, "There may be greater volatility in the coming weeks, but if the economy is not truly impacted, the market should rebound later this year, and buyers who bought the dip in October may be proven right by the end of the year."

Mark Newton from Fundstrat Global Advisors remarked, "Whether the S&P 500 index can rebound to 6800 points this week, I suspect that last Friday's deterioration led to further weakening of breadth and momentum, which could lead to a fall sell-off this autumn." The index closed at 6552.51 points on Friday. He also noted that it is important to remain vigilant, as some cross-asset volatility has already begun, which may persist into next month.

However, Trump and Vice President Pence's remarks over the weekend indicate that they are still trying to reassure the panicked market, convincing it that a tit-for-tat escalation is not inevitable. Trump's tone over the weekend appeared more conciliatory, stating that everything will be fine.

Anna Wu, cross-asset strategist at Van Eck Associates Corp., stated, "This does not look like a replay of April… the market digested a certain degree of overselling last Friday, thus rebounding from the lows."

Michael Hirson and Houze Song from 22V Research stated, "This is a very dangerous moment for global supply chains (including those powering artificial intelligence), but it is worth noting that neither side has yet implemented its threats. There is still an opportunity for concessions, and if Trump follows through on his threats, he will face significant political risks."

The rebound of risk assets on Monday did not stop the rise of gold. Traders are still waiting for signs of when the U.S. government will reopen and release data that will impact Federal Reserve policy.

Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com, stated, "Trade volatility may calm down, but it will never disappear. This is indeed a good thing for gold."

Fxempire analysis stated that technically, the main trend of gold prices remains upward. The closing price last Friday left gold prices well above a pair of support levels at $3939.38 and $3888.43. Unless the market falls below $3819.42 (which would indicate a recent downturn), the momentum will remain bullish. As gold trading is in uncharted territory, there are no traditional resistance levels above the current historical high. Psychological integers like $4100 and $4200 will become the next upward markers. On the downside, the 50-day moving average at $3592.82 is currently the most reliable trend support.

Michael Hartnett from Bank of America wrote, "History cannot predict the future, but in the past four bull markets, gold has averaged a 300% increase over approximately 43 months, which means gold prices could reach $6000 by next spring."

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