Author: Shaw, Golden Finance

In the early hours of September 26, Beijing time, the cryptocurrency market was hit hard again, with Bitcoin falling below the critical support level of $110,000; Ethereum dropped below $3,900, hitting a nearly seven-week low; Solana fell by 7.2%. The cryptocurrency market has seen over $140 billion in market value evaporate. Nearly 250,000 people were liquidated, with losses exceeding $1.1 billion, and $1.7 billion in long positions were forcibly closed. Just this past Monday afternoon, the cryptocurrency market had just experienced a flash crash, with major assets seeing rapid declines, and the total liquidation amount across the network reached $1.026 billion within an hour, of which approximately $1.007 billion was from long positions.

In just one week, the crypto market has suffered consecutive setbacks, casting a shadow over the nearing end of September. Is the "September Curse" in the cryptocurrency world playing out again? What will the market trend be in the upcoming fourth quarter? Let's analyze briefly.

I. Will This Week's Double Decline Cause the "September Curse" to Reappear?

1. What is the "September Curse"?

The "September Curse" refers to a seasonal anxiety derived from historical price data in the cryptocurrency market (especially Bitcoin), where the average return in September is typically negative, with significant declines.

Bitcoin has fallen against the dollar in September for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022. Although this trend has led many investors to believe that seasonal factors significantly impact cryptocurrency market performance, this hypothesis has been disproven in 2023 and 2024.

2. Performance of the Cryptocurrency Market This Week

After entering September, the cryptocurrency market was in a slight upward trend, but volatility gradually increased as the month progressed. This week, the cryptocurrency market faced two major blows. The flash crash on Monday caused liquidations worth $1.026 billion, with approximately $1.007 billion from long positions. In the early hours of today, the cryptocurrency market was hit hard again, with Bitcoin falling below the critical support level of $110,000, down nearly 4%; Ethereum dropped below $3,900, plummeting over 7% in a day, hitting a nearly seven-week low, continuing the trend of significant corrections in cryptocurrencies this week; Solana fell by 7.2%, marking six consecutive days of decline. The entire cryptocurrency market has evaporated over $140 billion in market value. Nearly 250,000 people were liquidated, with losses exceeding $1.1 billion, and $1.7 billion in long positions were forcibly closed.

Historical data shows that September is typically one of the weakest months for risk assets. Whether in U.S. stocks or cryptocurrencies, the average return in September is significantly lower than the annual average. It would not be surprising if the cryptocurrency market ends September at its current price levels as it enters the fourth quarter.

II. What Are the Causes of the Cryptocurrency Market Decline This Week?

1. Institutional Funds Withdrawing May Intensify Selling Pressure

The cooling of institutional fund inflows in the crypto market has intensified selling pressure. Coinglass data shows that since this past Monday, U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days, with investors withdrawing over $547 million from the ETFs. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced three net outflows this week, totaling over $479 million.

The continuous net outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs indicates a weakening of institutional demand, which may lead to a longer adjustment phase for prices. Institutional investor demand has been one of the main driving forces behind this round of the cryptocurrency bull market, and the current cooling of institutional fund inflows may delay the upward momentum of the crypto market.

2. DAT Narrative Cooling, "mNAV Premium" Disappearing

Currently, the digital asset treasury (DAT) craze has weakened, with a decrease in the demand for crypto assets and the flywheel effect. Data shows that the market net asset value ratio (mNAV) of most DATs has basically approached parity, with the compression of ETH DAT being the most significant since May. This indicates that the "DAT premium" is disappearing. The weighted average mNAV of ETH DAT has dropped from over five times in early summer to below one time at the beginning of September. DAT trading volume peaked in mid-August and has declined in September, indicating that the DAT narrative is gradually fading, while valuations are being re-anchored to net asset value (NAV).

Additionally, recent regulatory measures have added more uncertainty to the future development of the DAT model. Reports indicate that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (Finra) are investigating unusual trading patterns from over 200 companies that announced the adoption of digital asset treasury strategies, with their stock prices significantly rising before announcing plans to purchase digital assets. In dialogues and correspondence with the relevant companies, regulators have particularly emphasized concerns about potential violations of fair disclosure regulations, which require publicly traded companies to treat all market participants equally when disclosing important information and not selectively leak insider information that could be used for trading.

All signs indicate that the DAT narrative is cooling, and relying solely on DAT strategy companies to purchase crypto assets to stimulate market prices is a model that is unlikely to last.

3. Uncertain Future Economic Conditions Raise Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy

Recently, the U.S. GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, coupled with a decline in initial jobless claims, strengthening data has increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, leading to a cooling of market expectations for a rate cut in October.

Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding further rate cuts are deepening, reflecting the policy challenges faced by Fed officials in balancing inflation risks and employment concerns. This year, two Federal Reserve officials with voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have expressed concerns about aggressive rate cuts. In contrast, Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr and newly appointed Fed Governor Lisa Cook are advocating for faster rate cuts.

Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates for the first time this year, but there is still debate over the subsequent rate cut path. Fed Chair Jerome Powell left room for further rate cuts in his speech on Tuesday, suggesting a cautious approach to rate cuts in a challenging risk environment. Powell stated that interest rates "remain moderately restrictive," facing dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, and reiterated that reasonable expectations are for tariffs to cause a one-time price increase, ensuring that tariffs do not have a lasting impact. Furthermore, Powell did not indicate whether he would support a rate cut next month.

The uncertainty of economic conditions has exacerbated the Federal Reserve's divergence over future policy expectations, raising market concerns about the direction of subsequent interest rate decisions, further slowing the upward trend of risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

4. "Black Swan" Events May Trigger Market Panic

This week, hacker attacks on two star projects triggered significant declines in related tokens. On September 23, the security company Cyvers detected suspicious transactions involving $11.3 million related to UXLINK. UXLINK was suspected to have been stolen. Subsequently, SlowMist confirmed on platform X that UXLINK had suffered a hacker attack. After the hackers stole funds, they minted an additional 1 billion UXLINK tokens on-chain. Following the attack, UXLINK experienced a significant drop. Yesterday, GriffinAI announced that the GAIN token on the BNB chain had encountered a major security incident. The attacker successfully illegally minted 5 billion GAIN tokens on the BNB chain and sold them, directly triggering a panic sell-off in the market. The price of GAIN tokens plummeted by over 90%, severely impacting its subsequent price support.

These two hacker attacks on star project tokens may have triggered a "black swan" effect, intensifying market panic and, to some extent, affecting the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market.

III. What Will the Market Trend Be in the Fourth Quarter?

Although the cryptocurrency market experienced significant setbacks this week, the overall judgment of the crypto bull market has not changed significantly, with many still bullish on the market trend in the upcoming fourth quarter.

1. Coinbase Research predicts that the cryptocurrency market will continue to strengthen in early Q4, driven by resilient liquidity, favorable macro conditions, and supportive regulatory dynamics, with Bitcoin expected to perform particularly well. The technical demand for DAT is expected to continue supporting the cryptocurrency market, even as the industry enters a competitive "player vs. player" phase. Coinbase also emphasizes that historical monthly seasonal patterns (especially the "September Curse") are not significant or reliable predictive indicators of cryptocurrency market performance.

2. Grayscale's latest research report indicates that the returns in the cryptocurrency sector in Q4 may be driven by a series of unique themes. First, relevant committees in the U.S. Senate have begun drafting legislation for the structure of the cryptocurrency market. This represents comprehensive financial services legislation for the cryptocurrency industry and may serve as a catalyst for its deep integration with the traditional financial services industry. Second, the U.S. SEC has approved general listing standards for exchange-traded products (ETPs) based on commodities. This could lead to an increase in the number of crypto assets available to U.S. investors through ETP structures. Third, all else being equal, crypto assets are expected to benefit from Federal Reserve rate cuts (as rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing currency and can support investors' risk appetite).

3. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of BitMine, stated that Ethereum is a "truly neutral chain" that will be favored by Wall Street and the White House. Lee further explained that he has observed increased support for cryptocurrencies from the White House and Congress under the Trump administration, now primarily shifting towards Ethereum. He sees the possibility of Ethereum entering a sustained "super cycle" lasting 10 to 15 years.

4. VanEck noted that over 290 companies currently hold Bitcoin valued at over $163 billion. Given that the Bitcoin mining volume during the same period is only 270,000 coins, the current growth rate of corporate demand is approximately 4.3 times that of Bitcoin production. If ETPs, other funds, and Bitcoin held by governments are taken into account, the total growth rate of institutional demand is about 6.7 times that of production. The accelerated purchasing of Bitcoin by institutional investors indicates their increasing recognition of its deflationary supply, which endows Bitcoin with unique value storage properties.

5. Bitwise Asset Management stated that the previous digital asset treasury strategy was primarily centered around Bitcoin, but now companies are massively allocating ETH. Analyst Max Shannon pointed out that ETH treasury is no longer a fringe topic but is becoming a structural pillar of the cryptocurrency capital market. ETH is not just a hedging or speculative tool but a programmable financial asset that connects corporate financing with on-chain economics.

6. Billionaire Mark Cuban stated that holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset is an alternative hedge against fiat currency risk.

7. Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler Jr released a market analysis indicating that the market has entered a corrective range-bound mode, with the current rebound being more of a temporary recovery rather than a trend restart. Within the channel, the key support level is at $109,500. If this level is maintained and the structure is pushed back above zero, a bullish pattern will be restored, with the potential to retest $117,700.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。