Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The global financial market is entering a busy "Central Bank Super Week," with countries like the U.S. and Japan set to announce interest rate decisions this week. The direction of the macro economy is at a critical crossroads. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce its first rate cut since Trump's second term, likely by 25 basis points, although a slight possibility of a 50 basis point cut remains. This expectation is formed against a complex backdrop: on one hand, the White House has long pressured for lower borrowing costs, and on the other hand, Fed Chairman Powell is wary of tariff-driven inflation.

However, given that inflation rates remain above target, Fed officials may suggest that market expectations are overly aggressive, making Powell's speech and the updated "dot plot" the focus. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett points out that as U.S. nominal GDP growth is expected to peak in 2025, the "Anything But Bonds" (ABB) logic that has dominated the market in recent years will end, replaced by a new paradigm of "Anything But Dollars" (ABD), which will benefit non-U.S. assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and international markets.

Bitcoin's price hovered around $116,000 over the weekend, with trader Skew noting strong buying liquidity below $115,000. Several analysts believe that the current priority is not to directly hit new highs but to consolidate key support levels. For instance, Rekt Capital emphasizes that Bitcoin must first successfully convert $114,000 into support to build momentum for a subsequent breakthrough of $117,000 and the previous high of $124,500. Market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors: on one hand, the Bitcoin futures market has filled the CME price gap, and the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF continues to record net inflows, indicating strong institutional demand, leading analyst Keith Alan to believe that the previous cycle's peak has not yet arrived; on the other hand, CryptoQuant analysts point out that while ETFs and derivatives are driving prices, on-chain activity still shows a long-term holding state. Investors are closely watching for signals from the Fed; if it releases dovish signals, the market is expected to continue rising, otherwise, it may pull back. On-chain data analyst Murphy observes through the realized profit metric of short-term holders (STH) that while current market demand has somewhat recovered, it remains in a "weak rebound" phase, and a trend reversal requires stronger confirmation signals.

Regarding Ethereum, according to analyst Rekt Capital's observations, after being blocked from falling near the $4,000 weekly CME gap, Ethereum has rebounded to around $4,750 and is currently working to re-establish the key level of $4,631 as support. If successful, it will open the door for Ethereum to enter a new price discovery phase. Macro analyst Jordi Visser is optimistic about this, predicting that from now until the end of the year, traditional finance's allocation to crypto assets will increase, especially among institutional investors preparing for next year in the fourth quarter. He specifically notes that Ethereum's current consolidation in the $4,000 to $5,000 range may be a precursor to a significant breakout, which, if successful, will activate the potential of the entire ecosystem. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also shares a similar long-term optimistic view, believing that the current large-scale money printing has not truly begun, and the bull market may last until next year, providing macro support for the long-term value growth of mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum.

Outside of mainstream assets, the Pump.fun platform's live streaming feature has once again spawned a batch of "live streaming concept coins," with Binance also launching PUMP, which has nearly doubled in price since its spot launch on September 11. Additionally, the AVNT token on the BASE chain has skyrocketed from $0.175 to a peak of $1.45 after being listed on Binance contracts, spot, and Upbit exchanges, rising over 8 times since its contract launch on September 9. However, the HYPE token in the Hyperliquid ecosystem has been in a continuous pullback for four days since reaching a historical high of $57 after the HSDH competition, with Native Markets winning the USDH stablecoin bid.

2. Key Data (as of September 15, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $116,179 (YTD +24.4%), daily spot trading volume $30.814 billion

• Ethereum: $4,654.17 (YTD +39.84%), daily spot trading volume $25.866 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 52 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.121 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 57.7%, ETH 14.01%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: AVNT, XRP, DOGE, SOL, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.05%/49.95%

• Sector performance: Meme down 3.43%, RWA down 2.78%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 117,645 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $241 million, including $22.02 million in BTC, $46.98 million in ETH, and $18.60 million in DOGE.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($114,505.25), lower line ($112,237.82)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($4,526.79), lower line ($4,437.15)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of September 12)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$642 million, net inflow for 5 consecutive days

• Ethereum ETF: +$406 million, net inflow for 4 consecutive days

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance HODLer airdrop project Boundless (ZKC) will launch spot trading on September 15

• Binance Alpha will launch Project Merlin (MRLN) on September 16

• South Korea will lift the ban on VC investments in crypto companies on September 16

• ZetaChain will conduct UNISON upgrade on September 16, including speed enhancements and better compatibility with Ethereum

• Connex (CONX) will unlock approximately 2.32 million tokens at 8 AM on September 15, accounting for 3.10% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $35.1 million;

• Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens at 8 PM on September 15, accounting for 1.18% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $18.9 million;

• Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens at 8 AM on September 15, accounting for 5.98% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $17.1 million;

• Banana Gun (BANANA) will unlock approximately 500,000 tokens at 8 AM on September 15, accounting for 6.33% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $11.6 million;

• Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens at 9 PM on September 16, accounting for 2.03% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $49.2 million;

Today’s top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: Saros up 13%, Monero up 5.7%, Flare up 4.5%, Aerodrome Finance up 3.1%, Ethena up 1.8%.

5. Hot News

• This Week's Macro Outlook: "Super Central Bank Week" Arrives, Fed Rate Cut Cycle Set to Restart

• Data: Tokens such as OP, FTN, ARB to Experience Large Unlocks, with OP Unlocking Worth Approximately $93.4 Million

• This Week's Highlights: Intense USDH Bidding War; Multiple Data Points Support September Rate Cut, SOL Leads Mainstream Coins

• A Whale Received 22,556 ETH from FalconX Over the Past 4 Days, Worth $105 Million

• A Whale/Institution Transferred 1.83 Billion PUMP to OKX, Clearing the Address, Worth $14.35 Million

• Binance and Upbit to List Avantis (AVNT)

• Galaxy Digital Purchased 1.2 Million SOL Again in the Last 24 Hours, Worth $306 Million

• Polkadot DAO Passed a Proposal to Set the Total Supply Cap of DOT Tokens at 2.1 Billion

• A Whale/Institution Transferred 60,000 SOL to Binance 5 Hours Ago, Worth $14.82 Million

• An Ancient Bitcoin Whale Transferred 1,176 BTC to Hyperliquid Again After Two Weeks

• Messari: Bitcoin's Daily Average Transaction Fee Revenue is Currently Below $500,000, Hitting a Multi-Year Low

• Native Markets Wins the Hyperliquid Stablecoin USDH Bid, Plans to Enter Testing Phase "Within Days"

• SOL Strategies CEO: Being Undervalued is an Advantage, Holding Over 435,000 SOL on the Balance Sheet

• Ethereum Treasury Company ETHZilla Currently Holds 102,240 ETH, with Approximately $100 Million Used for Re-staking on ether.fi

• Faraday Future Has Completed Approximately $10 Million in Crypto Asset Allocation, Spin-off Web3 Company CXC10 Approved by the Board

• BNB Market Cap Surpasses $130 Billion, Surpassing BYD to Rank 167th Globally in Asset Market Cap

• House of Doge Discloses Its Dogecoin Treasury Established with CleanCore Has Accumulated Over 500 Million DOGE

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