Trump’s Next Move in Tariff War: What Will He Do After India-China Tie

The Tariff War: How It Started?

In the past few months, Washington has targeted both China and India with sweeping trade penalties. First, the Trump administration slapped heavy Chinese exports by the Tariff War , accusing Beijing of unfair practices and a growing trade imbalance.

Soon after, India was hit with some of the steepest tariffs in the world—50% on its goods heading to the United States.

The Tariff War also carried an additional 25% penalty for transactions with Russia . The logic from the White House was clear: punish IND for continuing to buy cheap Russian oil and weapons which Washington says helps fund the war in Ukraine.

For IND, this came as a shock. The US had long been its largest trading partner and the sudden squeeze put millions of export-dependent jobs from textiles to gems and seafood at risk.

PM Narendra Modi’s Response to Trump’s Tariff War

Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not take long to address the economic fallout. In fiery speeches he branded the Tariff War “unfair” and promised relief for country's businesses and workers.

To cushion the blow, Modi unveiled what he called a Diwali “tax bonanza.” His government is preparing deep tax cuts which are aimed at putting more money in people’s pockets and supporting small industries that are the backbone of IND economy.

He also doubled down on his “Make in India” campaign, urging Indians shopkeepers to proudly display boards of Swadeshi—“Made in India”—outside their stores.

The message was simple: if the world closes its doors, Indians must buy and build at home.

India-China Talks: A Surprising Turn

Against this backdrop, Modi traveled to Tianjin for a long-awaited meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It was the first visit by an Indian prime minister to China since the deadly border clashes of 2020, Prime minister’s X handle providing regular updates about India-China meetings .

The two leaders spoke about easing tensions, restarting direct flights,simplifying visas, bilateral cooperation, trade, fertilizers, space, security and culture.

Source: X

While the public statements were vague, the symbolism was powerful—two Asian giants, together representing nearly 2.8 billion people, talking cooperation at a time of economic turbulence.

China’s View on Trump’s Trade War

Beijing sees Trump’s Tariff War as an opportunity. Xi Jinping has been repeating his favorite phrase: “the dragon and the elephant should come together.” From China’s perspective, IND  tensions with the US create a chance to repair a strained relationship.

With Trump’s Tariff War biting , Beijing hopes IND will open its massive market further to Chinese products. For China, Modi’s presence in Tianjin, standing alongside not just Xi but also leaders from Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia, sends a powerful signal that IND has options beyond Washington.

Source: X

India’s Strategic Shift – and the Big Question

By resisting US pressure over Russian oil and now warming up to China, India is signaling that it values “strategic autonomy.” In other words, it wants to make its own choices without bowing to any single power.

But this creates new uncertainties. Trump Tariff War had counted on IND as a natural partner in balancing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Now, with Delhi reaching out to Beijing, the White House may feel betrayed.

So the big question is: how will Trump respond ?

• Will he double down with even harsher economic penalties?
  
  

• Will he use platforms like the upcoming Quad summit to put India on the spot?
  
  

• Or will he switch tactics, offering a new deal to pull Delhi back into America’s orbit?

Final Thoughts

For now, one thing is clear: India is not caving to US pressure. Modi is betting that a closer relationship with China and continued oil deals with Russia will give his country the breathing space it needs.

Whether this gamble strengthens India’s hand or sparks fresh conflict with Washington is a suspense that will dominate global geopolitics in the months to come.