On-chain analysis company Glassnode pointed out that while some market prediction institutions believe that increased interest from institutional investors will break Bitcoin's historical cycle, Bitcoin's recent price movements may still follow its four-year halving cycle.
"From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's price performance continues to follow previous patterns," Glassnode stated in its market report on Wednesday.
Glassnode noted that several factors indicate that the progress of Bitcoin (BTC) cycles may exceed market expectations.
Long-term holders, or investors holding coins for more than 155 days, are taking profits. Glassnode believes this behavior is comparable to previous euphoric phases, further deepening the impression that the market is in the late stage of the cycle.
Glassnode also mentioned a weakening demand, stating that Bitcoin inflows are showing signs of fatigue. Farside Investors data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of about $975 million over the past four trading days.
According to CoinMarketCap data, since Bitcoin reached a new high of $124,128 on August 14, the asset has dropped 8.3%, with the price at $113,940 at the time of writing.
Glassnode believes that the decline in demand is driving traders to shift towards higher-risk volatility bets.
"This slowdown in demand coincides with a surge in speculative positions, with mainstream altcoin open interest once reaching a historical high of $60 billion, before falling back by $2.5 billion," Glassnode stated.
If Bitcoin continues to follow previous cycles, the peak may occur as early as October. Glassnode added that in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, Bitcoin's cycle peaks occurred "only two to three months after the cycle low, which is after our current time point."
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated in early July that if Bitcoin's cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market is likely to peak in October. This means that this time point is the 550th day after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
However, not everyone agrees that Bitcoin still follows a four-year cycle. Some industry insiders believe that with more publicly listed companies purchasing Bitcoin and the rising demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, the cycle may undergo new changes.
On August 10, writer and investor Jason Williams stated that the top 100 Bitcoin-holding companies collectively hold nearly 1 million Bitcoins, indicating that this cycle has changed, but the four-year cycle has not yet ended. BitcoinTreasuries.NET data shows that publicly listed Bitcoin-holding companies collectively hold about $11.217 billion in Bitcoin.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated at the end of July that the Bitcoin cycle "has ended," and Bitcoin may welcome a "bullish year" in 2026.
Hougan stated that he expects the timeline of this cycle to differ from previous ones, as the impact of each halving cycle is diminishing, while the interest rate cycle is becoming increasingly favorable for the crypto market.
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Original: “Glassnode: The Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) May Not Be Over”
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