At the start of the second week of February, XRP entered a critical make-or-break window as the digital asset attempted to cement a bottom following a turbulent start to 2026. After a retracement from its January high of $2.40, the token is currently hovering in a narrow range between $1.40 and $1.44, leaving traders divided on whether a recovery or a deeper slide is next.

XRP experienced a sharp bout of volatility during Monday’s trading session, retracing from an intraday peak of $1.45 as the initial optimism surrounding the Japanese general election results began to cool. The digital asset’s price action mirrored a broader cooling across the risk-asset spectrum, catalyzed by a sell-the-news reaction to the Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide victory.

The early session surge was driven by investor enthusiasm for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-growth, expansionary fiscal mandate. However, “Takaichi Trade” momentum stalled as global macro concerns resurfaced. Similar to bitcoin, which faced heavy selling pressure that drove it momentarily below the $69,000 psychological floor, XRP suffered a rapid descent to a session low of $1.37.

At its intraday peak, XRP’s market capitalization stood at approximately $88.3 billion. Following the plunge, that figure saw a sharp erosion of more than $3 billion, bottoming out near $85.25 billion.

Meanwhile, the technical landscape for XRP is characterized by what analysts call “compression.” The price is currently pinned beneath a heavy cluster of overhead resistance. Short-term momentum is being capped by the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which have converged near $1.44–$1.46. This zone has acted as a firm rejection point over the last 48 hours.

On the downside, the 200-day EMA near $1.43 is serving as the primary line of defense. A decisive daily close below this level could trigger a liquidity hunt toward the Feb. 5 lows.

While technical indicators, including a neutral relative strength index ( RSI) of 46, suggest a market in waiting, fundamental data tells a story of institutional resilience. Despite the 40% price drop from January peaks, XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. have crossed the $1.2 billion cumulative inflow milestone.

Notably, on Feb. 6, while broader markets wavered, XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of $15.16 million, led by Bitwise and Franklin Templeton products. This structural buying provides a unique buffer for XRP that was absent in previous cycles, potentially preventing a full-scale capitulation.

Market participants are now looking toward the upcoming XRP Community Day on Feb. 11–12. With Ripple expected to detail its 2026 roadmap—including smart contract integration and institutional lending protocols—the event could provide the fundamental spark needed to break the current technical deadlock.

For now, XRP remains a wait-and-see story, caught between the exhaustion of sellers and a cautious return of institutional appetite.

Read more: Bitcoin’s $72K ‘Fakeout’: $82M Liquidated as Bithumb Faces $40B Error Probe

• What is driving XRP’s current price action? XRP is stuck between $1.40–$1.44 as traders weigh resistance at key moving averages.
• How are U.S. ETFs influencing XRP? XRP spot ETFs have crossed $1.2B in inflows, adding institutional support despite the 40% drop.
• What risks could push XRP lower? A close below the 200‑day EMA near $1.43 could trigger a slide toward $1.15.
• Why is XRP Community Day important?
  Ripple’s Feb. 11–12 roadmap reveal may spark momentum with smart contracts and lending protocols.

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