1. Market Observation

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July in the United States has brought inflationary pressures that exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year rate of 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase of 0.9% also set a three-year high. This data has notably suppressed market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although CME FedWatch data still shows a probability of over 85% for a rate cut. Bank of America has issued a warning, suggesting that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve during an inflationary cycle could recreate a "fatal combination" scenario that led to a significant weakening of the dollar between 2007 and 2008.

Regarding Bitcoin, its price experienced a pullback yesterday after breaking the $124,000 high, falling to around $117,200. Its market capitalization briefly surpassed that of Google, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also briefly exceeded $4.18 trillion. Crypto Chase views $117,000 as a key support level, believing that if this price cannot be maintained, the strong upward momentum in the market may temporarily pause. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly pointed out that Bitcoin may oscillate in the range of $119,000 to $117,500 in the short term, and if it breaks below the $112,000 support level, the price could further pull back to the $105,000 to $110,000 range. Analyst CJ believes Bitcoin may pull back to $112,000, or even further down to $109,700 or $107,000 before rebounding back to the $112,000 range. He suggests paying attention to the range of $114,000 to $115,700; if this position can be stabilized, there is potential for a push towards $130,000. BitMEX's technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin may currently be forming a double top pattern, with the MACD indicator showing bearish divergence, and the key support level around $112,000. If this level is broken, the price may further decline. However, Placeholder partner Chris Burniske has provided an optimistic forecast, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach around $142,690 in October. From a historical pattern perspective, analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that Bitcoin typically follows a pattern of summer rises, September pullbacks, and peaks in the fourth quarter after halving, but trader Kale Abe countered that market trends depend more on the funding conditions of Bitcoin reserve companies.

Ethereum was just $12 away from $4,800 yesterday, a step away from its historical high. However, following the release of the PPI data, Ethereum pulled back to around $4,450. Technical analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Ethereum needs to convert $4,631 into a support level to confirm further price increases; otherwise, it may pull back to the $4,000 weekly CME gap, or even touch the $3,750 area. Analyst Block Diversity also stated that Ethereum may see adjustments within the $4,000 to $4,400 demand range before welcoming the next wave of upward momentum. Analysis from Man of Bitcoin shows that $4,158 is a key support level; as long as the price remains above this level, further increases are still possible. In higher time frames, Standard Chartered Bank stated that Ethereum is expected to break the historical high of $4,866 in Q3 and has significantly raised its year-end target price to $7,500. Analyst Duo Nine believes that after Ethereum breaks $5,000, it will enter a price discovery phase, potentially rising to $7,000 or even higher. Chris Burniske predicts that Ethereum's price range in October will be between $6,900 and $8,000. Additionally, according to Polymarket data, the market predicts a 64% probability of Ethereum breaking $5,000 by the end of August, with a probability of reaching a historical high as high as 87%. However, CryptoQuant data shows that Ethereum has surpassed Bitcoin in terms of trading volume and the growth rate of open interest in perpetual contracts, but it has also observed an increase in the daily inflow of ETH into exchanges, which may indicate some selling pressure is forming.

Furthermore, HashKey's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding expressed strong confidence in Ethereum's future performance, noting that due to the upcoming Pectra and Fusaka upgrades, the likelihood of Ethereum breaking its historical high in the second half of 2025 has significantly increased. The Pectra upgrade will reduce L2 costs and optimize user experience through account abstraction and blob throughput enhancement, thereby accelerating the adoption of DeFi and RWA applications. The Fusaka upgrade, expected to launch in Q4, will introduce PeerDAS technology, further enhancing data availability and the degree of network decentralization. These technological advancements, along with the synergistic effects of AI and zero-knowledge proof technology, are expected to jointly drive the continuous expansion of Ethereum's network TVL, strengthen its value storage attributes, and support prices moving above $5,000.

In the altcoin market, Coinbase analysis indicates that Bitcoin's market cap share is declining, with the total market cap of altcoins growing by 50% since early July, suggesting that "altcoin season" may fully arrive in September. Specifically, the price of BNB broke through $865 to set a new historical high alongside Bitcoin's new high yesterday, while SKALE has risen over 120% since integrating It Remains on August 13, even increasing nearly 50% despite the general decline in altcoins yesterday.

2. Key Data (as of August 15, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $118,952 (YTD +27.02%), daily spot trading volume $65.176 billion

• Ethereum: $4,629.73 (YTD +38.53%), daily spot trading volume $67.165 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 60 (Greed)

• Average GAS: BTC: 3 sat/vB, ETH: 0.34 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 13.8%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, XRP, SOL, BTC, ADA

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.1%/50.9%

• Sector Performance: The entire crypto market faced setbacks, with the Meme sector leading the decline at 8.98%, and the NFT sector down 8.19%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 217,316 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $1.001 billion, including $175 million in BTC, $344 million in ETH, and $63.72 million in SOL

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($119,225.39), lower line ($116,864.49)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($4,240.44), lower line ($4,156.47)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of August 14)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$231 million, net inflow for 7 days

• Ethereum ETF: +$640 million, net inflow for 8 days

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch TCOM Global (TCOM) on August 15, PublicAI (PUBLIC)

• The remaining TIA acquired by the Celestia Foundation for $62.5 million will be unlocked on August 16

• Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens at 8 AM on August 15, accounting for 0.51% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $39.2 million;

• Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens at 8 PM on August 15, accounting for 1.21% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $17.5 million;

• Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens at 8 AM on August 15, accounting for 5.98% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $16.8 million;

• Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens on August 16, accounting for 2.04% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $41.9 million;

Today's top 100 largest market cap declines: Conflux down 11.6%, Curve DAO down 10.7%, dogwifhat down 10.7%, OKB down 10.1%, Worldcoin down 10%

5. Hot News

• A new wallet withdrew 53,434 ETH from Kraken in the past 2 days, worth $244 million

• The SEC has postponed the decision on Bitwise and 21Shares' Solana ETF proposal to October 16

• Sequans plans to acquire 100,000 Bitcoins by 2030

• Dinari will launch a blockchain based on Avalanche, positioned as "stock token DTCC"

• BtcTurk suspected of being hacked, approximately $48 million in crypto assets transferred unusually

• The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate is 3.3%reaching the highest level in three years, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%

• The LIP-021 proposal has been approved, and Lista DAO will burn 20% of its tokens

• bitFlyer and Binance have staked a total of 320,000 ETH, valued at approximately $1.51 billion

• Jeffs’ Brands announces the launch of an AI-powered cryptocurrency vault plan, intending to invest $75 million

• Standard Chartered Bank raises Ethereum's year-end target price to $7,500, expecting to break the historical high of $4,866 in Q3

This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.

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