Musk's New Game: X and Polymarket Collaborate, Which Assets Will Easily Win the Traffic Dividend?

What is the significance of the collaboration between X and Polymarket? Which ecosystems directly benefit?

Written by: KarenZ, Foresight News

On June 6, X officially announced its partnership with Polymarket, which has become X's official prediction market partner. This collaboration, described by Polymarket as a "new chapter in the exploration of internet truth," marks a deep integration of on-chain prediction markets with mainstream social platforms. Driven by both the "attention economy" and "financialized gaming," it aims to transform the information dissemination mechanism into a market-driven model.

As Polymarket stated, "The next information age will not be dominated by 20th-century media giants, but will be market-driven. Future news will be centered on truth, based on transparency, and anchored in reality."

The collaboration between X and Polymarket did not happen overnight. Polymarket has consistently shown a higher probability of Trump's victory than polls and traditional media predictions ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections. Musk himself retweeted data a month before the 2024 U.S. elections stating "Trump leads with a 51% approval rate on Polymarket," commenting, "Due to real money being involved, this data is more accurate than traditional polls." Polymarket gained fame for accurately predicting Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with precise forecasts in key swing states, quickly rising to become a leader in the prediction market.

Notably, in late May, Bloomberg reported that "another prediction market, Kalshi Inc., has hired Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor, and the company is collaborating with Musk's AI company xAI to provide customized information to guide users' bets on the site." Dramatically, just a day after Musk and Trump publicly split, X, under Musk's leadership, swiftly reached a partnership with Polymarket, raising widespread speculation in the industry about the timing. It is important to note that Polymarket was deemed to be operating illegally in the U.S. by the CFTC for not registering as a designated contract market (DCM) or swap execution facility (SEF), resulting in a $1.4 million fine in 2022 and a requirement to block U.S. users. Investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the FBI in 2024 further highlighted its regulatory challenges.

Polymarket & X Collaboration Details

Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan stated, "Combining Polymarket's accurate, fair, and real-time prediction market probabilities with Grok's analysis and X's real-time insights will be able to provide contextual, data-driven insights instantly to millions of Polymarket users worldwide."

According to the collaboration agreement, Polymarket and X will launch an integrated product that provides data-driven insights and recommendations for Polymarket. Polymarket's predictions will be combined with X's data to offer real-time insights and integrate real-time annotations from Grok and relevant posts on X, presenting users with dynamic market analysis. This product is the first in a series of integrated and unique experiences that Polymarket and X will jointly develop through their collaboration.

What is the significance of the collaboration between X and Polymarket?

The core logic of Polymarket is to form a consensus on event probabilities through real-money betting, while X's real-time information flow provides a natural soil for this process. Some community users speculate that X will integrate Polymarket at the foundational level, with prediction markets appearing in Twitter's information stream.

The partnership between X and Polymarket has multiple significances, not only expected to shape the interaction model between social media and prediction markets but also to promote the innovation of information production and decision-making mechanisms in the Web3 era.

Enhancing the Credibility and Scale Effect of Prediction Markets

Firstly, as a decentralized prediction market platform, Polymarket utilizes blockchain technology and oracle services to provide transparent and tamper-proof market outcome predictions. However, limited by the niche nature of cryptocurrency, Polymarket's user base has struggled to match that of traditional social platforms. According to Dune data, the monthly active users in May 2025 were less than 280,000, with a historical peak of 450,000 in January 2025.

X, as a mainstream global social media platform, has unique advantages in real-time capabilities and trend discovery, along with a large user base and real-time information dissemination ability. According to ThunderBit data, in 2024, the global number of X users reached 415 million, with monthly active users at 335 million and daily active users around 200-250 million, with users spending an average of over 11 minutes on X daily. From user behavior, 55% of X users prefer informational content, and 59% of X users often use it to get news. In the U.S., 59% of users indicated that following politics is a primary use.

This significant disparity in user scale is one of the greatest value points of the collaboration. X is expected to bring exponential growth as a "traffic gateway" for Polymarket, while Polymarket's prediction data can provide unique market insights for X users. This seamless experience is expected to transform prediction markets from tools for professional investors into a democratized platform for public participation in information.

Promoting Large-Scale Adoption of Crypto

Polymarket is built on the Polygon network, using USDC stablecoin as the trading medium. The deep integration between X and Polymarket is expected to open a key entry point for the "socialized popularization" of cryptocurrency.

Reconstructing Social Media Interaction Paradigms

Traditional social media users primarily engage in "content consumption," while the addition of Polymarket may introduce a "financialized participation" model: users can express their views through real-money betting and earn returns based on prediction results, which is expected to significantly enhance user stickiness and active duration on X.

Dual Transformation of Information Financialization and Financial Socialization

The collaboration between X and Polymarket represents a dual transformation of information financialization and financial socialization. On one hand, the process of information production and dissemination may be infused with market mechanisms, where every important news event could generate corresponding prediction markets, reflecting their credibility and influence through price signals. On the other hand, financial behaviors will be deeply integrated into social scenarios, allowing users to participate in market predictions and gain economic returns while browsing daily information.

The deeper significance of this integration lies in addressing the credibility crisis of information faced by modern society. Traditional media is constrained by editorial bias, advertising pressure, and political stances, while social media suffers from algorithmic recommendations and misinformation. Prediction markets, relying on real money betting, often reflect the public's true opinions more accurately and guide participants to uncover the truth through economic incentives.

Commercialization Path

From a commercial perspective, this collaboration may open new monetization channels for X. By introducing prediction markets, it can not only enhance user stickiness but also provide more precise user interest data for its advertising system, achieving a closed loop of commercial value. Moreover, Grok can analyze and process real-time data more effectively, providing more accurate predictions and insights. Currently, Polymarket does not charge any type of fees.

Which targets benefit?

The opportunities arising from this collaboration can be divided into two categories: core ecosystem beneficiaries (directly related) and derivative project speculation.

1. Core Ecosystem Beneficiaries (Directly Related)

Polygon: Underlying network
Ethereum: Polymarket's underlying network Polygon is based on the Ethereum network, indirectly benefiting Ethereum.
USDC: Polymarket primarily uses Polygon USDC for prediction betting, and all transactions and liquidity rewards are also distributed in USDC. Following the collaboration, as platform trading volume increases, the frequency and demand for USDC may also rise.
Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, Solana: In addition to Polygon, Polymarket also supports deposits of USDC, ETH, SOL, ARB, etc., on these four networks, but trading only supports USDC on the Polygon network.
Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex: Polymarket supports USDC deposits from these three exchanges.
MoonPay: MoonPay allows users to purchase USDC on Polygon using Visa, Mastercard, and some bank cards.
UMA: Polymarket's prediction market is based on the smart contract-based Optimistic oracle UMA, and the partnership with X is expected to enhance the demand for UMA oracle services. In March 2025, UMA stated that it is collaborating with Polymarket and EigenLayer to research the construction of a new generation of prediction market oracles. Some research ideas include developing an oracle that can support multiple tokens to resolve disputes, as well as exploring other features such as dynamic binding, AI agent integration, and enhanced anti-bribery attack security.
Safe: Polymarket adopts a proxy wallet system for users, one of which is for Safe smart accounts, utilizing Safe smart accounts to achieve account abstraction; the other is a MagicLink proxy wallet (relying on Magic Labs' MagicLink).
Magic Labs: Founded in May 2018, Magic Labs eliminates the complexity of seed phrases and browser plugins through embedded wallets, enabling ordinary users to easily enter the Web3 world, and has also launched the on-chain verifiable automation layer Newton.

2. Derivative Project Focus Targets

Polycule: A Telegram trading bot for the Polymarket ecosystem that also supports copy trading. The official Polycule Twitter account is followed by Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. The Polycule token was launched in mid-May by @topjeet on Believe, and its market cap has increased by over 200% since June 6. Notably, after the disclosure of the partnership between X and Polymarket, Polycule announced a $560,000 investment from Alliance.
Polytrader: Provides insights, technical analysis, and autonomous trading services regarding opportunities on Polymarket. The Polytrader token was previously issued through Virtual and currently has a market cap of $1.8 million.
PredictFolio: Supports analysis, comparison, and tracking of users on Polymarket, with its official Twitter account followed by Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.

Summary

The collaboration between X and Polymarket is not just a "business marriage," but a profound transformation of the logic of information dissemination on the internet—this is no longer merely a battleground of opinions, but an on-chain financial market interwoven with attention, capital, and consensus.

However, prediction markets are considered a form of gambling in many jurisdictions and may face stricter regulatory scrutiny. Additionally, the long-term success of the partnership will need to overcome potential challenges such as manipulation and information pollution.

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