BTC reaches new highs, ETH awaits a breakthrough, patiently waiting for altcoin season
Author: @arndxt_xo
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
The market is doing what it does best: testing your faith.
Altcoins continue to decline against BTC, with BTC's dominance nearing a cycle high. Market sentiment is divided; some are watching coldly, while others are aggressively going long on low market cap coins.
This is not a signal to shout "altcoin season" tomorrow, so don't FOMO.
- Yes, we are still in a bull market, but you are not late
Bitcoin remains the main character. From ETF inflows to corporate allocations (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence in BTC keeps its engine running hot.
This is also one reason for the weak performance of altcoins—BTC has absorbed most of the liquidity. Before this trend cools down, ETH and large-cap coins will not take off, let alone low-cap coins.
Altcoin season will begin when BTC's dominance clearly declines, not while it is still consolidating at a cycle high.
- The cycle is important, but market structure is equally crucial
Indeed, the crypto market roughly follows a four-year cycle, driven by BTC halving, liquidity conditions, and technology adoption cycles. From a broader perspective, 2025 looks like the second half, where parabolic trends usually emerge.
But this is also a phase where false signals are frequent. In 2021, after ETH surpassed BTC, altcoins surged. What about now? ETH/BTC remains weak. If you jumped into low-cap coins before ETH flipped, you came too early and have too much risk exposure.
A smarter approach is to accumulate strong assets. Track large-cap coins that show real accumulation (like $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK).
- Short-term opportunities are better, but not yet confirmed
It is correct for traders to focus on key areas. Breaking through the upper range could ignite a rally in high beta altcoins, but position management requires discipline:
Use BTC as a trigger signal, not as a trading target.
Accumulate spot positions in trending altcoins like $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV, which are low risk.
Pay attention to ETH/BTC. Without ETH's strength, there is no real altcoin season.
- No, you won't get rich overnight with 200x returns
True asymmetric returns come from early positioning and heavily investing in narratives that genuinely attract attention:
On-chain perpetual contracts (Hyperliquid, Virtual)
ETH LRT protocols with real cash flow
DeFi projects that conduct actual buybacks (AAVE)
Chain-native winners (Base, Solana, BNB—still not micro-cap coins)
The sequence for the start of altcoin season:
BTC hits an all-time high (completed).
ETH breaks through (pending).
Large-cap coins rise (some signs).
Mid-cap coins follow.
Low-cap coins take off vertically.
We are currently between Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Stay patient and add positions during pullbacks.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/06/5878.html
Source: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1929511847650377877
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