The Last King, or the Last Cut?

Written by: Deep Tide TechFlow

The meme continues, but the market's enthusiasm seems to have reached its limit.

Although memes are still being launched daily, how long has it been since you saw a new phenomenon like the "golden dog" compared to last year?

Memes may be struggling, but this does not seem to affect the relentless advance of meme launch platforms.

On June 4, according to Blockworks, Pump.fun plans to issue tokens to raise $1 billion at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion, selling about 25% of the tokens.

This token issuance is aimed at both public and private investors, and rumors suggest it may be accompanied by an airdrop, with the token possibly named "$PUMP," but specific details have yet to emerge.

Although Pump.fun has not officially confirmed the authenticity of this token issuance plan, for comparison, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, Circle, is seeking an IPO in the U.S. stock market, with a public valuation of only $7.2 billion.

Currently, the market's reaction to this news is beginning to diverge.

Upon the announcement, the ALON token (named after Pump founder @a1lon_9) on Pump.fun surged by 102%, indicating that speculative logic is still at play.

Some people are optimistic about Pump.fun's ability to attract capital, hoping for dividends or governance benefits from the tokens; while others scoff, believing that a $4 billion valuation is absurd and cannot hide the intention of "harvesting retail investors."

Fervor and fatigue coexist, opportunities and risks intertwine.

If this meme launch platform, closest to trading, gambling, and volatility, really issues tokens, will it be the savior of a depleted market, or the final cut that turns away without looking back?

The answer may lie in its valuation logic and market dynamics.

Is Pump.fun Worth $4 Billion?

If we follow the token issuance plan disclosed by Blockworks, is the FDV of PUMP around $4 billion justified?

We might explore the valuation logic using some data.

Public data shows that as of May this year, Pump.fun's annual revenue totaled $296 million. If estimated under the same conditions, the annualized revenue would be about $710 million (296 million ÷ 5 × 12).

Based on this revenue situation, from a traditional valuation perspective, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S, valuation of $4 billion divided by annual revenue) is 5.63, meaning the market pays $5.63 for every dollar of revenue, a common measure of growth in traditional markets, with values similar to DeFi projects like Uniswap.

If the PUMP token has revenue-sharing rights, assuming the token can claim half of the revenue ($350 million), the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E, valuation divided by profit) would be about 11.4, below the average level of U.S. tech stocks.

However, the problem is that meme-related businesses do not adhere well to traditional valuation methods. While the valuation of meme launch platforms is indeed related to revenue, FOMO and changes in market sentiment play a larger role.

Circle has a stable and compliant USDC business, with an IPO valuation of $7.2 billion; yet Pump.fun's $4 billion valuation corresponds to the top meme launch platform in the industry, exceeding half of Circle's valuation, which seems somewhat unreasonable.

Moreover, Pump.fun's revenue is not very stable. At its worst, daily revenue was only about $110,000.

From breaking $10 million in monthly revenue in November 2024, to a peak daily revenue of $14 million on January 2, 2025, and then dropping to as low as $110,700 on March 9 this year… the platform's revenue fluctuates nearly a hundredfold, highlighting the cyclicality of the meme market.

The low point of revenue in March 2025 is actually a reflection of the evaporation of market value and waning enthusiasm in the meme market; businesses driven by sentiment have fragile revenues.

Nevertheless, the platform is never short of supply. Pump.fun sees an average of 30,000 new tokens launched daily, with trading volume accounting for half of Solana DEX.

This continuous token launch and the stark contrast of fluctuating market sentiment make it difficult to find a stable anchor for its valuation.

A Depleted Market, the Last Cut?

Pump.fun continues to advance, whether through rumored token issuance or previous attempts to create its own AMM and innovate live streaming features, indicating that the platform itself has not stagnated.

(See: Meme Market Retreats, Pump.fun Self-Saves: Can PumpSwap Support Future Business?)

However, the entire market, especially the meme market, seems to be struggling.

Signs of market "depletion" have become apparent. In December 2024, the overall market value of memes dropped from $137 billion to $96 billion, evaporating $40 billion.

In 2025, Solana DEX trading volume shrank by 20% compared to last year, with most new tokens quickly going to zero, their lifecycles further shortened, and PVP has become extremely difficult.

Occasionally, a golden dog may hold the stage, but it is hard to replicate the glory of past years.

Retail investors have shifted from a frenzy of chasing prices to a wait-and-see approach, and community discussions are filled with fatigue. The market is yearning for new narratives—AI's next wave, stablecoins, crypto asset reserves of listed companies… rather than high-stakes bets on old platforms.

At the same time, Pump.fun's past raises eyebrows. In 2024, the platform repeatedly sold SOL earned to exchange for USDC; and data from January shows that Pump.fun has sold approximately $182 million worth of SOL tokens since January this year.

Earning SOL drains liquidity; selling SOL inevitably affects price and confidence.

The community currently holds a generally skeptical attitude towards Pump's token issuance, with researcher Haotian stating: "It's hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform could be valued higher than most DeFi blue-chip protocols. This may signify both the maturation of the MEME economy and a potential signal of the industry's value system collapse."

After token financing, what will Pump.fun actually do with the money? Can it bring essential gameplay upgrades to the meme market?

Based on the current information, the answer seems to be negative; not to mention that last month, various launch platforms have emerged, each challenging the status of this once top launch platform in their own way.

The Last King, or the Last Cut?

Before the answer is revealed, being cautious is certainly wise.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。