The fate of blockchain games remains undecided.

Written by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Do you remember the game "MapleStory" that accompanied you in monster hunting, team building, and costume changing?

Younger players may not have experienced it, but this 20-year-old gaming masterpiece carries the internet café memories of many people born in the 80s and 90s, and is one of the marks of the era when online games entered China after the millennium.

Now, it has transformed into a new darling of blockchain games.

The English name of MapleStory is MapleStory, and on May 15, the governance token NXPC of the blockchain version MapleStory Universe, which carries the same IP, was launched on exchanges such as Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, Gate.io, Bybit, Deepcoin, Bitget, Weex, and MEXC; the project token NXPC's price directly broke through $3, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) soaring to $3 billion.

Accompanying the price surge is the discussion about the large airdrop of NXPC.

Under the current Binance Alpha points system, users who meet certain criteria will also receive NXPC airdrops; based on the price of NXPC at the time of writing, an average user can earn over 600 USDT from a single airdrop, making it one of the most attractive "airdrop benefits" of the year.

Many players jokingly ask if there is still a chance to return to BSC, as the wealth effect has once again gathered attention. "MapleStory" itself represents the nostalgia of older players while also bringing some hope to the lagging blockchain game sector.

Blockchain games, a sector that has actually been disproven by the market, can it still thrive?

Is NXPC really viable?

We can look at the current surge of NXPC from two angles: whether the project itself is viable and how it compares to its predecessors in the blockchain game sector.

NXPC is the governance token of MapleStory Universe, launched by NEXPACE, a blockchain subsidiary of the South Korean gaming giant Nexon. MapleStory, as a classic MMORPG that has been operating for 20 years, has accumulated over 180 million players worldwide and has historical revenues of up to $4 billion, making it one of the evergreen titles in the gaming industry.

Now, Nexon is bringing this IP to the blockchain, attempting to create a community-driven digital economy ecosystem through MapleStory Universe.

From the project white paper, the total supply of NXPC is 1 billion tokens, of which 16.37% (approximately 163.7 million tokens) are immediately unlocked through airdrops, and 80% is reserved for future ecosystem rewards, aimed at incentivizing long-term participation from players and creators.

NXPC also has a sister token, NESO, used for in-game trading scenarios, which can be freely exchanged with NXPC, forming a dual-token model. This design attempts to find a balance between game economy and token value, but it has also led many investors to sniff out "gold farming" opportunities.

From this economic model, it still follows the "main token - sub-token - NFT asset" cycle, where one token acts as the platform token, possessing governance or staking functions while obtaining various rights designed in the game; the other token is purely used as in-game currency, with both tokens consumed together to support the economic cycle of NFT equipment and items in the game.

This is not fundamentally different from the gameplay of most previous blockchain games.

If we compare it to the once-popular projects in the blockchain game sector, it seems we can calculate a fair price range.

Has NXPC's current price of over $3 already hit the ceiling?

Using NXPC's current circulation of 16.37% (approximately 163.7 million tokens) as a baseline, and referencing the current market values and historical peaks of leading projects like Gala Games, The Sandbox, Decentraland, Axie Infinity, and Mobox, we can make a theoretical estimation:

Current market value comparison: At NXPC's current price of $3 (at the time of writing), it is already higher than Mobox's $0.24 and Axie Infinity's $2.17, comparable to Decentraland's $3.4.

If we benchmark against Gala Games and The Sandbox's market values of $703 million and $691 million, NXPC's price could potentially reach the $4.06-$4.13 range.

However, compared to Mobox's undervaluation, NXPC's current price seems to already include high market expectations.

Historical peak comparison: Looking back at the blockchain game bull market of 2021-2022, Gala Games and The Sandbox's market values once reached $6.9-$7 billion. If we estimate based on the historical peak market values of these projects during that market environment, their prices could potentially reach the $15-$40 range.

But the premise is that NXPC must replicate the ecological activity and market frenzy of those projects back then.

From a fundamental perspective, the gaming sector itself does not have any particularly significant narratives or technological breakthroughs; relying solely on the old "MapleStory" IP to drive prices to this range seems overly optimistic.

Instantaneous Effects

From the current data, NXPC appears more like a movement of capital.

The funding rate for the Binance NXPC/USDT perpetual contract once dropped to -2%, and is currently at -0.7%, meaning that short positions need to pay fees to long positions. This kind of negative premium is usually a precursor to a short squeeze—large short positions being forced to close, pushing the price further up.

At the same time, NXPC's first-day launch on major exchanges like Binance ensured short-term trading depth and liquidity; the continuous launch of contracts on numerous exchanges further stimulated the influx of speculative capital.

MEXC data shows that NXPC's 24-hour trading volume reached $6.85 million, indicating a clear speculative sentiment.

Returning to the fundamentals, NXPC's value realization also faces significant challenges.

First, the game is currently in the public testing phase, and the player retention rate and stability of the economic model have not yet been tested by the market. The lessons from Axie Infinity tell us that blockchain game projects that rely too heavily on speculation while neglecting player experience and economic balance ultimately struggle to last.

Second, NXPC's value is highly dependent on the activity of the creator economy.

NXPC emphasizes the creator economy rather than a purely "gold farming" model. MapleStory Universe allows players and creators to produce content through Synergy Apps, such as designing unique equipment or levels, and minting them as NFTs for trading using NXPC.

If creator participation is insufficient, or if the NFT item trading market has low liquidity, the demand for NXPC may significantly decline. The shift from "Play-to-Earn" to "Create-to-Earn" is not a new concept, and we have seen it repeatedly in our previous observations of blockchain game projects.

From the reactions on crypto Twitter, NXPC's surge indeed benefits from the dual support of the MapleStory IP's appeal and the wealth effect, but the community's focus is more on short-term gains rather than the long-term value of the game ecosystem.

Another key point is that this is a South Korean game, and it is an undeniable fact that young people in South Korea are keen on trading cryptocurrencies, which gives the market the potential to drive NXPC's rise; changes in indicators on Upbit may have a greater influence on NXPC's fate.

However, you cannot conclude that the entire garden is thriving just because one flower blooms well. The fate of blockchain games remains undecided.

MapleStory has restarted its adventure in the crypto world, but it faces many young players who have already left the scene due to losses in blockchain games.

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