Once considered unattainable, it has now become a reason to buy.

Written by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise

Translated by: Luffy, Foresight News

Earlier this month, I delivered a closing speech at the end of the first day of a national brokerage conference.

This is noteworthy in itself. The four major brokerages (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS) control over $10 trillion in client assets, and these platforms have yet to make it easy for their advisors to access Bitcoin ETFs. But as the invitation for my keynote speech suggested, this situation is changing rapidly.

In fact, I expect that by the end of this year, all four major brokerages will be offering Bitcoin ETF services. This is also one of the reasons I still anticipate that Bitcoin ETFs will set a new record for net inflows this year, despite the fact that the $3.7 billion net inflow so far in 2025 is "only" a fraction compared to the $35 billion expected in 2024.

I am not writing this article to discuss brokerage issues. Instead, I want to share a story about an audience member.

What if no one believes in Bitcoin anymore?

The most exciting part of a speech often comes at the end. You step off the stage hoping to hear applause, only to be surrounded by a group of people wanting to ask follow-up questions. These questions are the best.

After this event, one person patiently waited for the other twenty or so people to finish asking their questions. Then he said:

"I listened to your talk and found it very reasonable. But I just can't overcome the mental barrier."

This is a common sentiment. People rationally understand the reasons for investing in Bitcoin and find them appealing, but something always seems to stop them from buying.

After delving into his concerns, we figured out what that "something" was: he was worried about what would happen to Bitcoin if no one believed in it anymore.

"If the 'music' stops, how much will Bitcoin be worth?" he asked.

The answer, of course, is worthless. If no one in the world wants to hold Bitcoin, then its value is zero.

I pointed out that the same is true for gold and other assets, but he insisted it was different. Perhaps he is right; with gold, you at least have the shiny physical asset; but with Bitcoin, you really have nothing.

To be honest, I used to have the same thought, and I suspect most Bitcoin investors have too; the lack of a physical asset is indeed a challenge.

My advice: Write it down

My new friend was preparing to leave, still wearing a conflicted expression, when I asked him a simple question: What conditions would need to be met? In other words, how would he come to believe that Bitcoin would continue to exist?

For some people, their answer to this question can make them realize they will never buy Bitcoin. If you are waiting for Bitcoin to become more popular than gold… or waiting for its volatility to approach zero… then you will never buy Bitcoin.

But if you don’t have those barriers, it’s worth seriously asking: What conditions would need to be met?

Is it institutional custody? Nowadays, publicly traded companies like Coinbase and well-known institutions like Fidelity are custodians of Bitcoin, with financial giants like BNY Mellon following suit.

Is it institutional trading? Today, Bitwise is engaged in crypto trading with established firms like Jane Street and Cumberland/DRW.

Is it institutional adoption? Currently, nine of the ten largest hedge funds in the world hold Bitcoin, along with Emory University (which has a $11 billion endowment), the Texas Teacher Retirement System (managing $210 billion in assets), and investment titans like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller, among many other institutions that hold Bitcoin.

Is it the participation of large asset management companies? Are firms like BlackRock and Invesco enough?

Is it corporate adoption? Companies like Strategy, Block, Tesla, and over eighty other publicly traded companies are involved.

Is it accessibility? Bitcoin ETFs are now available.

Is it the adoption of investment models? BlackRock now recommends that investors allocate 2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.

Is it regulatory stability? Legislation related to market structure is expected to pass in Congress this year.

Is it government adoption? The U.S. is establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Whatever the conditions, write them down. Because if we look back a few years, we once thought some things, like the U.S. government holding Bitcoin or the world's largest asset management companies accepting this asset, seemed unattainable, but now we are seeing these things happen.

My friend thought for a moment, took a deep breath, and then said, "I'm going to buy Bitcoin."

I think many people will come to the same conclusion this year.

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