Bitfinex Alpha's latest report predicts that the current crypto bull market will peak around Q3 or Q4 of next year.
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
Market Dynamics
Monad Announces the Establishment of the Monad Foundation
According to official news, Monad has announced the establishment of the Monad Foundation, which will focus on promoting validator-led governance, community improvement proposals, developer documentation maintenance, and ecosystem development. The original Monad Labs team will be renamed Category Labs, with James Hunsaker serving as CEO, primarily responsible for the development of underlying blockchain technology. Keone Hon and Eunice Giarta will join the newly established foundation, while the original business development, ecosystem, community, marketing, developer relations, and operations teams will also transition to the foundation.
FTX Sets Effective Date for Restructuring Plan as January 3, 2025, to Collaborate with BitGo and Kraken for Asset Distribution
According to a press release, FTX and its affiliated debtors announced today that the court-approved Chapter 11 restructuring plan will officially take effect on January 3, 2025. The first round of distributions will begin within 60 days after the effective date, exclusively for approved creditors in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached agreements with cryptocurrency custodians BitGo and exchange Kraken to provide asset distribution services for retail and institutional clients.
Grayscale Announces Opening of Horizen Trust (HZEN) to Qualified Investors, Providing Exposure to ZEN Tokens
Grayscale has announced the opening of the Horizen Trust (HZEN) investment channel to qualified investors. This fund allows investors to gain exposure to ZEN tokens in the form of securities. As of December 16, the fund's market price per share is $6.40, with approximately $8.7 million in assets under management.
Bithumb Adds GOAT/KRW Trading Pair
South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb announced that it will launch the Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) token KRW trading pair on December 17, 2024, at 13:00 (KST). Deposit and withdrawal services will open within 2 hours of the announcement, and the platform reminds users to only deposit via the Solana network, as deposits from other networks will not be credited.
Pantera Partner 2025 Predictions: NFT Revival, 1% of Bitcoin to Participate in Bitcoin Finance
Pantera partner Paul Veradittakit released 2025 predictions, which include:
RWA (excluding stablecoins) will account for 30% of on-chain TVL (currently 15%);
1% of Bitcoin will participate in Bitcoin finance (Bitcoin-Fi);
Fintech will become a gateway to cryptocurrency;
Unichain will become the leading L2 by trading volume;
NFT revival, but in specific applications;
Re-staking will gain strength;
zkTLS will bring off-chain data on-chain;
Regulatory support.
Bitfinex Report: Current Crypto Bull Market Expected to Peak Around Q3 or Q4 of Next Year
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has surged over 573%, with its price increasing 130% year-to-date. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by ETF and spot accumulation. Historical data indicates that we are in the mid-cycle after the April 2024 halving, with the market likely peaking around Q3 to Q4 of 2025, approximately 450 days post-halving.
Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle metrics suggest that we are still in a bull market phase, but far from peak levels. The Pi cycle top and 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000. Historically, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive growth of BTC seen in previous cycles. The report suggests that any adjustments in 2025 will remain mild due to institutional capital inflows; historically, the year following a halving sees the strongest rebounds. Cycle targets: by mid-2025, the minimum price estimate is $145,000, with favorable conditions potentially pushing this price to $200,000.
Ethena Labs Announces Launch of New Stablecoin Product USDtb
According to official news, Ethena Labs has announced the launch of a new stablecoin product, USDtb, supported by BlackRock's U.S. Dollar Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), which manages over $500 million in U.S. Treasury securities.
USDtb shares the same characteristics as existing fiat-backed stablecoins (such as USDC or USDT), utilizing cash or cash-equivalent reserves to support each token on a 1:1 basis. Users can transfer USDtb freely and without restrictions. Additionally, BUIDL will account for over 90% of USDtb's overall reserves, the highest allocation ratio among all stablecoin issuers. The remaining 10% will be held in stablecoins to facilitate redemptions or regulated institutional-grade tokenized U.S. Treasury products.
MicroStrategy Increases Holdings by Approximately $1.5 Billion, Acquiring 15,350 BTC
On December 16, MicroStrategy increased its holdings by $1.5 billion, acquiring 15,350 BTC, with a quarterly BTC yield of 46.4% and an annual BTC yield of 72.4%.
Murad: Market Yield Distribution in This Cycle is More Dispersed, Asset Selection is Particularly Important
Trader Eugene initiated a poll on X asking, "Has this bull market met expectations?" As of now, 65.2% of participants answered no. In response, KOL Murad commented that the current market yield distribution is more dispersed than in previous cycles, making the results unsurprising, and that asset selection is more important than ever. He stated that a "net fishing" investment strategy should not be adopted.
Solv Protocol Announces Its Token SOLV Will Launch on Hyperliquid
Bitcoin staking platform Solv Protocol announced that its token SOLV will launch on Hyperliquid, with specific launch times and trading details to be announced later.
Binance HODLer Airdrop Launches Simon's Cat (CAT) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)
According to an official announcement, Binance has launched the 4th and 5th projects of the HODLer airdrop - Simon's Cat (CAT) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU). From December 9, 2024, 00:00 (UTC) to December 12, 2024, 23:59 (UTC), users who subscribe to the Simple Earn product with BNB will receive airdrop allocations. HODLer airdrop information is expected to be released within 12 hours, and new tokens will be distributed to users' Spot Wallets one hour before trading begins.
Binance will list CAT for trading on December 17, 2024, at 09:00 (UTC), opening trading for USDT, BNB, FDUSD, and TRY pairs. Seed tags will be applied to CAT.
Additionally, Binance will list PENGU for trading on December 17, 2024, at 14:00 (UTC), opening trading for USDT, BNB, FDUSD, and TRY pairs. Seed tags will be applied to PENGU.
Market Trends
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