This is the moment for #Bitcoin.
A daily close below $54k would represent yet another lower low after a series of lower highs.
We're below the 21, 55, 100 and 200-day MA.
We're below the short-term holder realized price.
We're losing bullish structure.
These are just facts.
Price has been unable to make a 60-day bullish momentum (Williams%R) thrust since May 2024, which was faded extremely quickly and followed by new lows after making a lower high.
During bull markets, overbought signals should persist and produce tailwinds for strength... but that didn't happen in the most recent overbought signal and it failed to produce sustained upside.
The EMA's (21, 55, and 200 on my chart) are breaking down.
All three have a negative slope.
The 21 is trading below the 55 and the 200.
These are just facts.
Risk appetite is nowhere to be found within crypto, which again is antithetical to typical bull market dynamics.
I remain optimistic on $BTC, but I'm also confronting the reality of these facts and recognizing their objective significance.
I say it all the time, but it's worth repeating:
"It's okay to be wrong, but it isn't okay to stay wrong".
I've been overall bullish on BTC over the past 18 months when it broke above the short-term holder realized price in January 2022 around $17-18k.
When price fell from $31k to $25k in August 2023, I faced a tremendous amount of criticism for my bullishness at the time.
Those trades, positions, and purchases were all proven to be correct.
But with wins come losses.
Regarding BTC, I've been wrong for the past 6 months on the primary trend, as I've been overly optimistic and expecting for a bull market continuation above $90k.
I'll hold myself accountable to that, learn, and improve.
This is just a reflection on the ongoing & recent dynamics.
Either way, the trend is objectively weakening.
The price structure is objectively shifting.
Market sentiment has eroded.
If we're going to experience a bull market continuation, it needs to occur in a sustainable & material way quickly.
The more time that passes, the harder the headwinds will be.
This is the moment for #Bitcoin.
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