Kerrisdale Capital, a hedge fund, revealed a subtle investment thesis today: to long BTC while shorting the stock of MicroStrategy, positioning itself as a BTC investment tool. The premise is that the trading price of MicroStrategy, which positions itself as a BTC investment tool, has an obvious and unreasonable premium compared to the underlying Crypto assets that make up its value.

Kerrisdale Capital's analysis explains, "MicroStrategy's stock price has soared in the recent surge of BTC prices, but as often happens with Crypto assets, things have gotten out of control."

Kerrisdale also emphasized a key difference, pointing out that the stock price of MicroStrategy implies a BTC value "exceeding $177,000, or 2.5 times the spot price of BTC."

When discussing the reasons behind the premium on MicroStrategy's stock price, Kerrisdale refuted some points supporting the company's market valuation.

The report straightforwardly stated, "The reasons given for the premium on MicroStrategy's stock are not sufficient to justify paying more than twice the price for the same coin."

This statement emphasizes Kerrisdale's position that MicroStrategy's valuation is too high in direct BTC exposure.

Since 1989, under the leadership of CEO Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has been actively accumulating BTC and making it the core pillar of its investment strategy.

From August 2020 to 2023, the company made significant financial moves to increase its holdings, which now exceed 214,000 BTC.

Kerrisdale's valuation method considers MicroStrategy's enterprise software business and its BTC reserves.

The conclusion drawn from the analysis is that while the software business is still operational, it "no longer contributes meaningful value to the entire enterprise," highlighting the overwhelming impact of BTC on the company's valuation.

A key criticism from Kerrisdale is the excessive premium of MicroStrategy's stock relative to its Net Asset Value (NAV).

The report points out, "The premium on MicroStrategy's stock is 2.6 times, exceptionally high."

Kerrisdale believes that if the premium on MicroStrategy's stock were adjusted to a historically more consistent level, the stock would experience a significant decline relative to BTC performance.

The report delves into the potential impact of MicroStrategy's financial strategy, including its reliance on leverage and the dilution effect of its financing mechanism.

Kerrisdale's analysis indicates that while MicroStrategy has successfully increased its BTC holdings through active capital market activities, the dilution effect of debt financing and stock issuance has led to stagnation in the amount of BTC per share.

Finally, Kerrisdale Capital estimates, "If the current 2.6x premium were adjusted to a more historically consistent 1.3x, the decline of MSTR relative to BTC would be 50%."

This conclusion is drawn after studying the interaction between the premium on MicroStrategy's stock, BTC holdings, and broader market dynamics.

The community's reaction has been quite sharp.

Bit Paine commented, "MicroStrategy, are you selling pre-sale tickets to your own funeral?"

Another Crypto asset analyst, Trey Sellers, stated, "In my view, this seems like a logical position, although the market's irrationality may persist longer than your ability to remain solvent, as they say."

OSF added, "There might be nothing dumber than releasing your mid-curve trading ideas to a group of irrational degenerates who will make it their life's mission to liquidate you."

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