Tomorrow is the largest delivery of 11 billion US dollars in the history of BTC. It can be seen that at the end of the quarter delivery, a new trend often emerges. Will there be a thousand-point market again?
Before 2017, perpetual contracts had not yet appeared. The market mainly traded quarterly futures. The principles of quarterly and perpetual contracts are very different. Quarterly contracts are settled every three months according to the spot price, while perpetual contracts are settled every few hours with funding rates. Therefore, the quarterly price often differs significantly from the spot price. Many people can infer the inclination of large funds towards long or short positions based on the price difference between quarterly and spot prices.
Since 2020, the trading volume of options has been increasing, and the quarterly delivery effect brought by options has become greater. Everyone has noticed the biggest pain points of options, which can reveal the intentions of large funds. Currently, the biggest pain points for BTC are at 50,000 and for ETH at 2600.
A new trend is about to start next week, and the long and short game is also coming to an end.
BTC:
BTC retraced to the 5-day moving average and rebounded, confirming the bottom support. The hourly chart shows a double-pin rebound with accompanying volume, needing to test the top selling pressure. The key point above is 70,898 US dollars. Only by stabilizing at 70,898 US dollars can it further establish a bottom and strengthen, entering a new round of upward trend. Next, BTC will rise to test 70,898 US dollars.
Resistance levels: 70,898, 71,765, 72,658
Support levels: 68,965, 67,746, 66,527
ETH:
Rebounding at the 5-day moving average, confirming the bottom support. The high point on the hourly chart is decreasing, facing resistance line suppression. The key resistance line formed on March 26th and 27th is at 3,604 US dollars. ETH needs to stabilize at 3,604 US dollars to establish a bottom and strengthen, entering a new round of upward trend. Next, ETH will rise to test 3,604 US dollars.
Resistance levels: 3,604, 3,672, 3,835
Support levels: 3,498, 3,433, 3,372
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