Author: Frank, Foresight News

In 2024, it can be said that it is a big year for top global sports events, from the ongoing 2023 Asian Cup (January 12 to February 10), to the mid-year European Cup (June 14 to July 14), and the Paris Olympics opening in July (July 26 to August 11), and even to the U.S. general election on November 5, major sports and political events will span the entire year.

Especially the European Cup and the Olympic events that followed from June to August, as internationally renowned major sports events, they have huge international influence and fan base, undoubtedly bringing great attention and speculative space to related sports track tokens.

This article aims to briefly sort out the sports category tokens worth paying attention to, and through reviewing the price trends of leading tokens during the 2021 European Cup and the 2022 World Cup events, it attempts to glimpse into the potential trading rules behind the global events this year.

Which sports category tokens are worth paying attention to?

"On the green field, it's not football that's rolling, it's gold." Sports track-related tokens have always been the most cyclical and speculative investment targets in the crypto world.

If divided, they can be roughly divided into three categories: sports public chains (Chiliz, TOPGOAL, etc.), team/star fan tokens (SANTOS, BAR, CITY, etc.), and prediction & gambling-related tokens (sports NFT category will not be discussed in this article for now).

Sports Public Chains

Chiliz (CHZ)

Foremost among them is Chiliz (CHZ), as a blockchain fintech provider for sports and entertainment, Chiliz has always been the basic blockchain platform for many football clubs to issue fan tokens, and has launched an interactive and reward application Socios.com for fan services in the sports and entertainment industry.

On Socios.com, fans can buy CHZ and exchange it for a fan token of a certain club, and then vote on club affairs, and even participate directly in management (from jersey design to daily governance voting) or communicate with players.

The current market value of the token CHZ is about $8.8 billion, also the absolute leader in market value in the sports track.

TOPGOAL (GOAL)

Web3 football metaverse platform TOPGOAL allows trading of genuine digital player cards and participation in football games, dedicated to cooperating with world-famous players, clubs, etc., to create new digital virtual experiences and entertainment consumption for players, clubs, and fans.

Currently, many well-known players including Pirlo, Michael Owen, Guti, and Rivaldo have joined, and GOAL is the governance token of TOPGOAL, with a market value of only about $2 million at the time of writing.

Team/Star Fan Tokens

Next is the fan tokens of various teams/clubs issued based on Chiliz and other blockchains, holders usually receive exclusive rights, including voting rights and exclusive rewards from the club.

At the time of writing, Chiliz has reached cooperation with many top football clubs such as Manchester City, Arsenal, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Roma, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, and issued a total of 63 fan tokens corresponding to clubs, including well-known ones such as:

• AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
• Tottenham Hotspur FC Fan Token (SPURS)
• Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
• Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
• FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
• Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
• Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
• Inter Milan Fan Token (INTER)
• Mexican Football club (SAN)

In addition, major exchanges have also cooperated with top clubs to issue fan tokens (mostly based on Chiliz), such as the "Binance series" based on the BNB Chain issuing LAZIO, SANTOS, and PORTO fan tokens.

However, from a total statistical perspective, at the time of writing, Binance has launched a total of 10 fan tokens, including (team category, the same below):

• Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS)
• S.S. Lazio (LAZIO)
• FC Porto Fan Token (PORTO)
• FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
• Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
• Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
• Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
• AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
• Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
• AS Roma Fan Token (ASR)

OKX has launched a total of 6 fan tokens, including:

• Argentine Football Association Fan Token (ARG)
• Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
• Flamengo Fan Token (MENGO)
• Trabzonspor Fan Token (TRA)
• Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
• Galatasaray Fan Token (GALFT)

Prediction & Gambling

In addition, prediction & gambling demand often experiences a surge during major sports and political events, especially global events such as the World Cup, European Cup, and the U.S. presidential election.

Taking the prediction market leader Polymarket as an example, its trading volume exceeded $50 million in the past January, reaching a monthly historical high.

One of the most notable driving factors includes the concluded prediction of the Salvadoran presidential election, whether the spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, and the ongoing prediction markets for the winning team of the 2024 European Cup, the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Fed rate cut in 2024, and the Democratic candidate for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, among other different betting markets.

However, at present, Polymarket has not issued tokens, and other prediction markets such as Aver, BetDEX, etc., have shallow betting pools and have not issued tokens.

But with the approach of the second half of the European Cup, the Olympics, and the U.S. general election, participating in corresponding betting pools for each event may also be a good opportunity for a rich investment choice.

The Historical Rule of "First Surge, Then Plunge"?

If we look back at historical market trends, we will find that the related tokens in the pan-sports sector generally follow the historical rule of "first surge, then plunge" around major sports events such as the European Cup. The timing of the market anomaly and its specific trajectory depend on the specific circumstances.

Because such sports events are usually held once every 4 years, with a relatively long development span in the crypto market, in this article, we will only use the most recent timing of the 2021 European Cup and the 2022 Qatar World Cup as examples, combined with the leading sports public chain token CHZ and the fan tokens SANTOS and PSG on Binance for a simple review.

2021 European Cup

The 2020 European Cup, which was originally scheduled for 2020 but postponed due to the pandemic, took place from June 12 to July 12, 2021.

Taking the leading token in the sports sector, CHZ, as an example, let's review the secondary market price performance of the token 4 months before the start of this European Cup and throughout the event. We can roughly divide it into three stages:

• 4 months before the event, early surge: Around February 12, CHZ began to gradually strengthen, and then within a month, it rose from 0.3 USDT on February 12 to a peak of 0.9449 USDT on March 12, with a gain of over 214% in 30 days.
• 2 months before the event, double top formation: However, from March 12 to April 16, in about a month, CHZ first fell to a low of 0.36 USDT, a drop of over 60% from the peak, and then rose to 0.84 on April 16, forming a double top, followed by a continuous decline from the high point.
• Throughout the event, oscillation and decline: One week before the opening on June 12, CHZ was relatively strong, but on the opening day, it dropped by over 7%. It then continued to oscillate and decline, reaching a low of 0.178 USD, a drop of over 80% from the high point 4 months earlier.

In addition, the fan token PSG of Paris Saint-Germain FC followed a similar trajectory—it started to move about 3 months before the event and quickly completed a round of upward cycle in a little over a month, then continued to decline, especially after the event opened:

• 3 months before the event, early surge: Around March 10, PSG surged by 52% in a single day, and then rose from a low of 10.862 USDT over the next month and a half to a peak of 59 USDT on April 27, a 443% increase in 47 days.
• 2 months before the event, peak and decline: After that, from April 27 to the last two months before the event, PSG fell to 10.78 USDT, almost back to the starting point, with a drop of over 80% from the peak. On the opening day of June 12, PSG plunged again, with a fluctuation of over 10%.
• 1 month after the event, new high: Ironically, after the European Cup closed, PSG quickly rose from 15 USDT to 61.5 USDT within a month, a 310% increase.

2022 Qatar World Cup

The 2022 Qatar World Cup took place from November 20 to December 18, 2022.

Using the leading token in the sports sector, CHZ, as an example, let's review the secondary market price performance of the token 5 months before the start of this World Cup and throughout the event. We can roughly divide it into three stages:

• 5 months before the event, short-term bottoming: Around June 18, 5 months before the start of the event, CHZ reached a short-term low of 0.0811 USDT, and then began a slow upward cycle for two months—from 0.0811 USDT on June 18 to a peak of 0.265 USDT on August 24, a 226% increase in 66 days.
• 3 months before the event, triple top formation: After reaching the first peak on August 25, CHZ successively reached the second and third peaks on September 23 and November 7, forming a triple top in the 3 months before the event.
• Throughout the event, a continuous decline: One week before the opening on November 20, CHZ rose by over 50% in just 5 days—from a low of 0.178 USDT on November 14 to 0.275 USDT on November 19, but then plunged, dropping by nearly 20% on the opening day, and then continued to decline throughout the event, reaching a low of 0.1123 USD on December 17, a drop of nearly 60% from the peak a month earlier.

In addition, the "Binance series" fan token SANTOS also started to move about 4 months before the event, formed a double top trend in the 3 months before the event, and then continued to decline, especially after the event opened. It can also be roughly divided into a similar "three-part" structure.

• 4 months before the event, started to move: Around July 15, about 4 months before the start of the event, SANTOS started to move, with a fluctuation of 15% on that day, and then began a rapid upward cycle lasting for a month—from 3.82 USDT on July 15 to a peak of 21.49 USDT on August 19, with a 462% increase in 34 days.
• 3 months before the event, formed a double top: After reaching the first peak on August 19, SANTOS first fell to a low of 9.8 USDT, a drop of over 50% from the peak, then rose again and reached a new high of 22.67 USDT on September 25, forming a double top.
• Throughout the event, a continuous decline: After reaching the new high on September 25, SANTOS continued to decline until the event opened, with a drop of over 50% in the half month before the event, and a significant drop of nearly 20% on the opening day, followed by continuous decline.

Conclusion

Overall, whether it's the 2021 European Cup or the 2022 Qatar World Cup, sports public chain tokens represented by CHZ started to move 4-5 months in advance and quickly surged within a short period of 1-2 months, with gains of over 200%, and may form at least a double top trend during this period.

The trend of fan tokens like SANTOS is generally similar, with some differences in detail:

• In terms of timing, it tends to start a month later than CHZ (starting 3-4 months in advance), and the overall cycle rhythm is shortened by about a month.
• In terms of gains, it tends to be "leveraged," with gains often exceeding 300%-400%, higher than the approximately 200% increase of CHZ.

However, as the European Cup and World Cup approach, the funds involved in early speculation often sell at the peak, and the prices of these tokens often peak and decline 2-3 months before the event opens, with the risk of short-term sharp declines after the event opens.

From this perspective, the upcoming global sports event cycle, which is set to open in June 2024, is the perfect starting point for the "seek swords" strategy in the sports sector, with strong reference significance.

Therefore, "buy the rumor, sell the fact," the unshakable truth in the investment field, is also almost a golden rule for the sports sector (major event nodes), a track and related currencies with strong cycles and forward-looking layouts.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。