The "Round Moon Machete" caused the first wave of long and short explosions of the new year.
Author: Weilin
Just as 2024 began, the old project Tellor Tributes token TRB on the prophecy machine racetrack completed a "roller coaster" performance.
On December 31, TRB, which had been rising from around $11 for over three months, did not brake but instead reached around $268, and then within the next 6 hours, it peaked near $590. What followed was even more astonishing: within the same 6 hours, TRB plummeted to around $149.
In just 12 hours, the logo resembling a "round moon machete" TRB created the first "long and short double explosion" tragedy in the cryptocurrency market of the new year, with a total of $73.1 million in liquidation across the network. Both long and short investors were furious, feeling played by this "demon coin."
Finally, a voice in the market was heard: the maximum supply of TRB, which is 2,586,819, has been controlled. According to the on-chain analysis tool Spot On Chain, "Of the circulating 2.5 million TRB, approximately 1.7 million are on exchanges, and 20 whales hold 660,000."
Some address accumulation behavior began during TRB's rise in August 2023. At that time, the cryptocurrency investment and service institution LD Capital mentioned TRB's on-chain position building in a report. As a result, some investors pointed to LD as the controller, prompting the firm's partner Lou Ji Yue to publicly clarify by offering a "reward of $10 million to find evidence."
Subsequently, some on-chain analysts pointed out that on January 1, before the plunge of TRB, the Tellor Tributes team deposited 4,211 TRB into the centralized exchange Coinbase. On-chain data showed that two days earlier, the team had transferred 7,000 TRB to Coinbase, during the period when TRB was continuously rising.
In the illiquid TRB market, over-leveraged trading positions also contributed to the sharp rise and fall of TRB. Some traders observed that TRB's daily contract trading volume exceeded $500 million, with "a lot of gamblers."
Whale control, team selling, excessive leverage—unrestrained "demon coin" TRB completed the first cut of the new year.
Long and short double explosion "Round Moon Machete" 12-hour spiral harvest
At 9:25 pm on the night before the new year, TRB, which had been rising for 4 months, soared from $268.88 to $593.09 by 6:15 am the next day, a 120.5% increase.
Just as TRB successfully attracted market attention, in the following hour, TRB plummeted, dropping to a low of $143.69 within 6 hours, a 312.75% decrease from the peak.
The rapid fluctuations in the short term directly led to a "long and short double explosion" in the futures market. Data shows that in the 24 hours before 8 am on January 1, the futures contract liquidation amount for TRB was $73.1 million, with short positions liquidating $44.49 million and long positions liquidating $28.61 million.
$73.1 million in TRB futures contract liquidation in 24 hours
In addition to the liquidation that occurred on centralized exchanges, decentralized DeFi applications were not spared.
On January 1, the founder of the decentralized synthetic asset issuance protocol Synthetix (SNX), @kain.eth, stated on X platform that due to the abnormal fluctuations of TRB, SNX stakers lost about $2 million.
@kain.eth explained that there was originally a $250,000 unclosed contract limit for TRB in Synthetix, but with its price rising over the past few months, this limit had expanded to $12.5 million. It should have been adjusted downward, but the lack of strict risk control led to "several short positions being opened today, but due to the misalignment of spot prices and contract prices, the arbitrage balance malfunctioned, which was a lesson for Synthetix."
The abnormal price of TRB also appeared in the quotes on exchanges. Around 10 am on January 1, the TRB/USDT price on OKX was $233.24, while the price on Binance was $170.74, with a price difference of 36.6%.
In fact, this logo resembling a "round moon machete" TRB appeared as early as 2019. It is the native token of the decentralized prophecy machine protocol Tellor Tributes, with a total supply of 2.586819 million, and the current circulation is nearly 2.553723 million.
According to the third-party data platform CoinGecko in the cryptocurrency market, in early October 2019, TRB entered the secondary market with an initial price of only $0.8. It soared to $146.14 during the cryptocurrency bull market in 2021, only to drop below $100 four days later. For the next year, the price of TRB remained in the two-digit range.
TRB price remained calm for nearly 2 years, suddenly surged in August 2023
Starting in 2023, TRB remained between $8 and $10 until September 16, when it surged from around $10 to over $40 in less than a month, multiplying several times. By the end of September, it even exceeded $60 on some exchanges. After a half-month correction, it continued to rise from around $46 on October 13 to a temporary high of $139.92 at the beginning of November, ultimately surging and then plummeting at the end of the year, "bloodbathing" the futures market.
This project, which had been half-dead for nearly 2 years since 2019, suddenly revived in September of last year, oscillating all the way up, and then turned into a "killer" with a long and short double explosion at the end of the year. When things go against the norm, there must be a demon.
Ambush for 4 months, whale accumulation and control
After the "demon coin" released its demonic energy, the situation of whale control gradually became clear.
In fact, on December 29, when TRB rose to $225, the on-chain data analysis tool Spot On Chain issued a warning message: "Of the circulating 2.5 million $TRB, approximately 1.7 million are on exchanges, and 20 whales hold 660,000."
After analyzing the data, Spot On Chain also stated that the funding whales had accumulated TRB at a favorable price of $15 in August and September. Since then, the token's price has increased 15 times, earning a total of $120 million (realized profit of $40 million, unrealized profit of $80 million). Over the past two months, the whales slowly deposited their tokens into exchanges, creating a cycle of raising and selling to liquidate their holdings.
Experienced players in the cryptocurrency market from 2017 all know that when chips are overly concentrated in the hands of one or a few people, the token becomes a tool for the manipulator to control the price.
Spot On Chain warned at the time that because most tokens were still in the hands of whales, they controlled the game. Prices might experience a significant increase to clear short positions and hard selling to liquidate their holdings.
Spot On Chain's warning eventually came true. Within the first 6 hours of the new year, TRB took a nosedive.
So, who are the whales manipulating TRB chips?
Unfortunately, despite the transparency of blockchain addresses allowing anyone to see the flow of assets, the anonymity of the blockchain does not reveal the specific identities of the holders.
Some have pointed fingers at a cryptocurrency investment service provider. On social media, some have accused LD Capital, a well-known Chinese cryptocurrency investment firm.
In response, Lou Ji Yue, a partner at LD Capital, stated on various social channels, "I will reward $10 million for any real-name Binance account KYC information and information related to LD/myself/any affiliated parties, transaction costs, and the TRB price fluctuations; otherwise, the right to pursue legal responsibility will be reserved for content with over 3,000 views spreading such information."
The reason for accusing LD Capital may be related to a report the firm released on August 28 last year regarding TRB fund analysis. In fact, LD Capital mentioned some address accumulation of TRB in the report.
The report showed significant fluctuations on the chain on August 21, the highest level since January, far exceeding previous data. At the same time, the price did not fluctuate significantly, hovering around $10, "We believe that someone may be building positions on the chain at this time."
Without the correspondence of addresses and identities, this report cannot be used as evidence to accuse LD Capital of controlling the market. However, the report does support the fact that TRB whales did accumulate at the low point.
While the identity of the accumulation whales remains uncertain, those who sold at the peak have been caught in the act.
On January 1, according to on-chain analysis tool Lookonchain, a wallet address associated with the Tellor Tributes development team transferred 4,211 TRB to the exchange Coinbase after the surge in TRB price. At the time, these TRB were worth $2.4 million.
Based on on-chain data, the address starting with 0x1B8 had previously transferred 12,735 TRB to Coinbase in the month of December and had also received 20,000 TRB through Tellor's multi-signature.
Based on this, it cannot be ruled out that the Tellor Tributes team profited at the peak of TRB.
Analyst @Riyad_carey pointed out that the Tellor Tributes team deposited TRB into Coinbase a few hours before the price plunge, but the selling on Binance occurred about 2 minutes earlier than on Coinbase. However, after the Tellor Tributes team deposited TRB into Coinbase for the second time, there was a $350,000 sell-off in the market, causing the TRB price to drop from $500 to $400. He believes that the Tellor Tributes team may have cleared their positions, but the whales who seriously manipulated the price are hiding on Binance.
This analysis also aligns with the data tracked by Spot On Chain, which shows that since September, most of the TRB from the accumulation whale wallets flowed to Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange.
According to on-chain data, even today (January 5), an address on Binance still ranks first among TRB holders, with a total of 771,600 TRB, accounting for 29.82% of the total supply; the second largest holder is the exchange OKX, with a total of 189,700 TRB, accounting for 7.2%.
In addition, the top ten non-exchange whale addresses hold 24.85% of the total supply, approximately 642,900, indicating that the chips are still concentrated.
Excessive leverage—no one survives in the "casino"
Investors affected by the sharp rise and fall of TRB not only cursed the whales controlling from the shadows but also expressed dissatisfaction with the exchanges allowing the whales to slaughter investors. Some users called for exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and OKX to delist this "solo coin."
After the incident, Binance did take temporary measures and suspended TRB withdrawals. However, as of the time of writing, no exchange has delisted TRB.
The liquidation amount of over $70 million has indeed caused heavy losses for many people, and the excessive leverage trading behavior in the market has actually contributed to the sharp rise and fall of TRB.
As early as August, LD Capital discovered the accumulation behavior of TRB on the chain and also observed an increase in TRB contract trading volume and open interest at that time. On the morning of August 26, the 24-hour contract trading volume of TRB increased by 151%, and the open interest increased by 93%. "Large accounts were in a long position, and the account long/short ratio was 0.96, indicating a large number of retail investors were short."
At that time, TRB's trading volume was already at $30.5 million, and the open interest was $12.8 million. By August 28, just two days later, the TRB contract trading volume and open interest surged. "In the last 24 hours, its contract trading volume was $1.6 billion, and the open interest was about $68 million."
August was the stage when whales began to accumulate, and the rise in TRB price also started to attract futures contract traders. The open interest in the TRB futures market also began in August.
Judging by common sense, no currency will continue to rise continuously. However, TRB defied common sense. After entering October, the "bears" became frequent victims of liquidation during the TRB surge. By October 26, TRB, with a total market value of $250 million, had an open interest of $355 million in the futures market, with a funding rate of -1.38%.
After continuous short liquidations, some traders sensed the crisis and gave up trading TRB, while others refused to give up and continued to seek short-term profits at the peak, only to fail repeatedly.
On December 29, before TRB surged to $500, a Binance user named Myth, who had previously shorted the token, recalled that he had shorted TRB near $35 and luckily profited from a major pullback. However, after attempting to short TRB again for a quick profit, his profits retracted by nearly 80%. He then gave up on the asset.
He speculated that the major holders manipulated the price by continuously pulling and smashing the coin price, and then profited using leverage in the futures market. "If you are still trading futures, it's best to stay away from this coin. The daily futures trading volume of this token is over $500 million, which means there are a lot of gamblers."
Two days later, TRB surged within 6 hours and then plunged within 6 hours, resulting in a long and short double explosion, leaving no survivors in the futures market.
Looking back, with a total supply of only 2.58 million, TRB has almost completely circulated. In a market where the price itself is not high, such cryptocurrencies are easily accumulated at low prices. When the whales have more and more chips in hand, they almost control the candlestick chart, while the "blind players" in the futures market can only be at their mercy.
The existence and continued presence of the "demon coin" TRB after releasing its demonic energy once again proves the lack of investor protection in the cryptocurrency market. In such an environment, the only way for investors to protect themselves is to keep their eyes wide open and stay away from illiquid market assets.
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