TL;DR
- Can the push behind the surge in TRB help its price continue to rise? Can TRB still be bought? This article takes you deep into the analysis of TRB's price trend. Don't miss it!
What is Tellor?
Tellor is a decentralized oracle protocol. Its main service is to provide users with access to off-chain data from the Ethereum network (such as API or transaction data from the Polygon chain).
Tellor aims to solve the problem of information isolation in the current Ethereum network. It has created an independent data system within the network. Users can request data from the system through contracts. Upon receiving the request, Tellor will query the system and associate relevant data based on the user's specific needs.
At the same time, Tellor allows data submission. Submitters will receive TRB as a reward, but they need to pay gas fees and stake TRB to ensure the accuracy of the submitted data.
TRB
TRB is the native utility token of Tellor, mainly used to incentivize users to submit data within the network. TRB does not have a fixed supply, and its total supply increases with the rewards for data submission.
According to Tellor, users can receive TRB as a reward for providing data to the system. However, before doing so, users need to stake a certain amount of TRB to guarantee the validity of the data.
In addition, TRB is also used for Tellor's dispute mechanism. When the accuracy of the data is questioned, TRB is used for voting arbitration. Only when the arbitration is successful can users receive rewards. Additionally, TRB is also used for the governance of the Tellor protocol upgrades.
Analysis of the Reasons for the Surge in TRB
Initial Starting Point
The initial surge in TRB began in September 2023. According to TokenInsight's data, the price of TRB started to rise significantly from September 7th, soaring from around ten dollars to a peak of 45 dollars within a week, and eventually exceeding 60 dollars by the end of September, with a monthly increase of 275%.
So, what caused the surge in TRB?
According to our research, the main reason for the surge in TRB in September was whale manipulation.
Based on data from Etherscan, the address currently holding the most TRB is: 0xCcE7300829f49B8f2E4AEe6123b12DA64662a8b8. It is worth noting that this address is an anonymous address, and there is currently no evidence to indicate that it belongs to any exchange or institutional entity.
Since August 30th, this whale has accumulated approximately 441,813 TRB, equivalent to about 41.44 million dollars (calculated based on the October 25th TRB price), accounting for 17.39% of the total supply of TRB.
This address has actually been the largest holder of TRB since September. According to on-chain transaction records, this address conducted a series of suspected wash trading operations in September, directly leading to the rocketing price of TRB.
Now, let's take a look at the specific trading operations of this account in September:
- From August 30th to September 13th, TRB was transferred multiple times from Binance and OKX exchanges, totaling 755,350, accounting for about 30% of the total TRB supply.
- From August 31st to September 3rd, TRB was transferred 8 times to the anonymous address 0x50Cbc6faeEE68FB63e0A3c8ac8Cda8A8505c960B, totaling approximately 213,538.
- On September 15th, 100,000 TRB was first transferred to the Binance address 0x04D8626775e95CecB44DCa386027def00Aa45C62; then 99,999 TRB was transferred from Binance.
Most of the TRB in the address 0x50C…60B has been transferred out. On September 4th, 5th, and 15th, the TRB in this address was transferred back to the Binance address 0x04D…C62 in three separate transactions, totaling 331,825 TRB.
From these trading operations, it can be seen that the behavior of this whale is highly likely to be wash trading for TRB. Through self-buying and selling, and multiple transactions with huge trading volume, the whale's actions successfully caused the price of TRB to nearly quadruple from around ten dollars. As TRB's market value was relatively low at the time, the impact of the whale's wash trading on its price was quite significant.
Second Surge
TRB Price Trend from September to October
After the initial surge, the price of TRB stabilized at $45-50 in early October. Subsequently, influenced by a series of Bitcoin spot ETF news, the overall sentiment in the crypto market continued to rise, leading to a small bull market. The price of TRB also surged, rising from $50 to a peak of $95 between October 15th and 25th, with an increase of about 90%. Compared to the market's average increase of 20-30%, TRB became one of the most significant beneficiaries in this small bull market driven by market sentiment.
The Future of TRB
As investors, the most curious question for everyone is how the price of TRB will develop next. Does TRB still have room for growth? Is there a risk of a sharp decline in the short term?
In conclusion, the price of TRB is likely to change in the short term following market sentiment, and it may even continue to rise to $110-130. However, a sharp decline due to whale liquidation could occur at any time. Therefore, we recommend that investors carefully consider trading TRB and avoid holding large amounts of TRB for an extended period to reduce potential risks.
Specific Analysis
Firstly, aside from macro-market and whale manipulation factors, considering the project itself, the Tellor protocol is essentially one of many decentralized oracle protocols in the market, without any significant outstanding features. Like practical DApp projects, the growth of its token value is directly linked to the development of the project.
Based on the current usage of the Tellor protocol, influenced by the current hype, the average number of users submitting data to the Tellor system is between 200-300 per day. However, very few of these users receive rewards.
For example, on October 24th, only 4 users who submitted data received TRB rewards.
Tellor Data Submission Statistics Interface
According to Tellor's token economics, the issuance of TRB is linked to data submission rewards. Therefore, based on the current situation, the total supply of TRB is increasing relatively slowly, and its price will not suddenly drop due to a large increase in issuance.
So, what are the main factors that will affect the price of TRB? The answer is quite clear: the whales holding TRB.
In addition to the whale mentioned earlier, which ranks first in the TRB Top Holder List (holding 17.39% of the total TRB supply), there are two other anonymous addresses currently holding a large amount of TRB.
This address transferred TRB multiple times from Coinbase between September 8th and 25th, totaling approximately 111,892, worth $9.85 million. It currently ranks third in the TRB Top Holder List, holding about 4.4% of the total TRB supply.
This address transferred TRB multiple times from Binance between October 20th and now, totaling approximately 85,805, worth $7.5 million. It currently ranks sixth in the TRB Top Holder List, holding about 3.4% of the total TRB supply.
According to statistics, these three whale addresses collectively control close to 25.7% of the total supply of TRB. Based on the current market price, the value of their holdings exceeds $65.3 million.
Due to the currently low circulation of TRB, its price is more susceptible to manipulation by whales. Whether it's wash trading or liquidation, these whales will have a significant impact on the price of TRB. Based on the ongoing upward trend of TRB, the possibility of these whales suddenly liquidating their holdings one day is very high. This could lead to a sudden plunge in the price of TRB, causing a collapse overall.
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