2025.11.17 Macro Market Analysis Good afternoon, brothers. A new week has begun. Last week was brutal—hundreds of thousands of people got liquidated, and not many survived. This week, a few major events will determine whether the market finds a way out of the abyss or adds fuel to the fire. Last week’s crash was mainly triggered by the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. The market now believes the chances of a rate cut in December have decreased. At the same time, there’s growing concern about an AI bubble, which led to a stock market plunge. With U.S. stocks tanking, the crypto market followed suit. This Wednesday, NVIDIA will release its earnings report. If net profits don’t drop significantly and meet expectations, the U.S. stock market could stabilize. Along with the U.S. government resuming operations and injecting liquidity into the market, the crypto market might see a rebound. But a full reversal? That’s hard to say. However, if NVIDIA’s earnings report leads to a crash (30% probability), there’s a high chance BTC will fall below 90,000. Are you ready for that? So, is there really an AI bubble? Will the U.S. stock market crash in the future? I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately. Recently, I saw that Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, opened a Q3 position in Alphabet, Google’s parent company. This eased my concerns quite a bit. Other than Apple, Buffett has never bought tech stocks before—he’s extremely cautious. But this time, he’s buying into AI giant Alphabet at a high valuation, which suggests the AI bubble isn’t as big as people fear. For now, I recommend holding spot positions. Shorting with contracts isn’t ideal—any oversold rebound could liquidate you. Going long isn’t great either, as the U.S. stock market’s direction is still uncertain, and a sudden wick could happen at any time. Wait for the market to stabilize. This analysis is just for friendly reference. Adults need to take responsibility for their own decisions. Investments carry risks—please invest only with spare funds and think independently.