Despite the recent severe sell-off in the AI sector, Anthropic has decided to withstand market pressure and proceed with its IPO. This large-scale listing will directly test the public market’s risk appetite and pricing willingness for cutting-edge AI assets.
According to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal, investors expected Anthropic’s valuation target to be around $1.5 trillion a week ago, but after the dramatic fall in AI company stocks, some major investors now hope for a lower target valuation. Currently, the company's executives are meeting with bankers from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to finalize the valuation range.
According to a Bloomberg report on the 6th, a source familiar with the matter revealed that some potential investors have discussed valuations dropping to around $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some even considering as low as $1.1 trillion.
The report stated that Anthropic has arranged to meet with key investors this week, aiming for its stock to start trading next Thursday or Friday. The company still has the option to delay its valuation target and wait for more favorable market conditions, but this might trigger market panic.
The progress and final pricing of this IPO not only concern Anthropic's own fundraising scale, but will also serve as a barometer for the entire AI industry chain's valuation, directly affecting the market's reassessment of the high capital expenditures required for AI infrastructure and its commercialization prospects.
Racing to go public before Thanksgiving, valuation expectations face downward adjustment
The timeline for Anthropic's IPO has entered a critical phase.
According to Bloomberg, following the public submission of the prospectus on October 26, Anthropic could begin official IPO marketing as early as November 10. If all goes well, the company hopes to complete pricing in the week of November 16 and hit the Nasdaq before the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on November 26, trading under the ticker symbol "ANT".
However, the severe market volatility has made valuation the core of negotiations among all parties. Months ago, a valuation figure of about $2 trillion was discussed, but Anthropic is now almost certain to accept a much lower valuation. According to Bloomberg's report on the 6th, some potential investors have discussed valuations dropping to around $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some even considering as low as $1.1 trillion.
For investment banks, pricing strategy is crucial. If the target is set too high, investor demand may suffer, leading to a drop in stock prices; if the range is too low, the company and bankers will face criticism for "leaving money on the table". In practice, bankers sometimes encourage companies to propose a price range slightly below expectations to subsequently raise the price citing strong investor demand. It is expected that the documents submitted this week will detail the number of shares to be sold and the pricing, and may also disclose well-known investors who have locked in purchases at the IPO price.
Dual resistance from politics and the market, AI concept faces reassessment
The challenges facing Anthropic’s IPO are not only due to discrepancies in investor valuations but are also influenced by changes in risk appetite across the entire AI industry chain. After the U.S. midterm elections, a group of skeptics towards AI came to power and implemented a moratorium that could slow the development of data centers in the U.S., leading to a $2.5 trillion loss in market value among Nasdaq composite index components in one day.
Market volatility had pushed the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) above 25 to over 28. Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, stated that companies generally consider delaying IPOs when VIX is above 25. Additionally, concerns are growing among investors regarding the clarity of large AI investments and their potential returns, as Anthropic's competitor OpenAI raised less than half of its initial target in the latest funding round, with a valuation below the targeted $1.25 trillion.
However, the market subsequently showed some repair. The rebound of the S&P 500 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, along with a decline in the VIX, may provide additional confidence for Anthropic to continue pursuing its listing. Matt Kennedy believes that Anthropic's IPO is different from a usual company going public, and the current market environment may not be enough to force it to delay its listing, but investors' demands for discounts and valuations may be higher.
High growth in performance encounters slowdown, investors closely monitor computing costs
Another core of the valuation dispute is whether Anthropic can prove that its revenue growth is sufficient to support a huge listing valuation. The prospectus shows that Anthropic's revenue reached $16.956 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 1127%. However, signs of a slowdown in growth have appeared, with the third-quarter sequential growth rate dropping to 47%, far below the second quarter's 144% sequential growth rate.
Profit performance is similarly under pressure. In the third quarter, Anthropic reported an operating loss of $567 million, with a net loss reaching $23.291 billion. The shift to loss was primarily affected by about $5 billion in short-term computing power procurement costs and approximately $2 billion in non-cash expenses related to employee donation matching programs. Perhaps of even greater concern for the market is the company's disclosed total expenditure commitments for computing power procurement and infrastructure, which amount to as much as $895.4 billion.
According to Reuters, investors are currently waiting for Anthropic's October revenue data, hoping to determine whether the company can reverse the recent trend of slowing growth. Revenue performance, enterprise customer usage, and computing cost control capabilities will be key metrics heavily questioned by investors during the roadshow.
Record-breaking fundraising scale, industry barometer significance highlighted
As one of the first companies focused on developing cutting-edge AI models to attempt to go public, the scale and pricing of Anthropic's issuance will provide important references for the entire AI industry.
The market is closely watching whether Anthropic's IPO can rival the record performance of SpaceX, which is backed by Elon Musk. SpaceX had a valuation of about $1.77 trillion in its previous issuance, raising between $75 billion and $86.2 billion. According to Reuters, Anthropic's issuance scale could even reach $100 billion.
Led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with 20 other banks participating in this mega IPO, the actual subscription situation will provide clear signals: after a significant adjustment of AI concept stocks, how much the public market is truly willing to pay a premium for the long-term growth potential of cutting-edge AI companies.
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