The U.S. midterm elections resulted in a significant victory for the Democratic Party, and newly elected governors in multiple states immediately imposed tough conditions on data centers, announcing a complete suspension of new construction permits until new regulations are issued. This policy shift directly ignited the market, with tech stocks such as Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, and Micron facing the largest single-day market value evaporation in history, with amounts nearing $4 trillion.

Chamath Palihapitiya, a prominent blogger and co-host of the All-In Podcast, revealed in the program aired on November 8 that the real "nuclear" variable hides within the computing power supply contract between SpaceX and Anthropic—both parties hold a "90-day mutual exit clause." If the supply of computing power in the market tightens suddenly due to state permit freezes, SpaceX could theoretically terminate the contract and reprice at spot prices 2 to 3 times higher, fundamentally reshaping the power dynamics of the entire AI industry.

(Screenshot from All-In Podcast)

Hyperscale cloud providers, sitting on existing computing power, maintain their status as "landlords," while new clouds (Neoclouds) and cutting-edge model companies heavily reliant on external rentals face survival dilemmas.

Meanwhile, All-In Podcast co-hosts Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg also warned in the program that if states continue to set approval barriers, giga-level data center projects valued at over $50 billion will be forced to move to Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, or even the Middle East, leading the U.S. to go from being a "global computing power exporter" to an expensive "token importer," a strategic shock to technological competitiveness and employment that cannot be ignored.

Permit Freeze: The Grassroots Backlash Against "AI Oligarchs"

After the election results were announced, the newly elected governor of Texas, Gina Ino Hosa, immediately stated that all new data center permits would be suspended until special legislation is enacted. According to discussions by the co-hosts of All-In Podcast in the program, multiple newly elected candidates from various states share a similar stance.

This public sentiment did not come out of nowhere. Chamath quoted a widely circulated video on the X platform—where SpaceX team members held a briefing for its 6GW data center project in Cochise County, Arizona, two SpaceX employees, Riley and Katie, promised that the project would lower local electricity costs, not consume water resources, reduce property taxes by 20%, and provide repayment funds for county bonds. However, the response from residents in the audience was continuous uproar and opposition.

Chamath pointed out that this sentiment did not stem from a rational judgment of facts, but rather a totemic projection of the "economic divide." Community residents were extremely resentful of the tech giants enjoying generous tax breaks from the local government while pushing up local electricity prices and water consumption. David Sacks candidly stated that the residents' core logic is: "AI oligarchs are getting rich off tax breaks, while we are paying higher electricity bills for them."

David Sacks further pointed out that the political impetus for the permit freeze is almost rigid: "In the last election, both Democrats and Republicans targeted the politicians approving data centers as objects of attack. Any politician with aspirations has no reason to endorse any projects in the next four years." His baseline judgment is that projects already granted all permits are highly likely to be completed by 2027, but newly unapproved projects will face immense uncertainty, and by 2028, the entire project pipeline may be essentially closed or significantly shrunk.

"Landlords" and "Tenants": The Life-and-Death Divide in the Power Landscape

Chamath clearly divides the participants in the current computing power market into two entirely different camps, stating that both sides face drastically different fates under the new circumstances.

Hyperscale cloud providers—including Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and SpaceX—have self-built power plants and hold vast existing computing power, representing the true "landlords." The tightening of new data center permits poses limited impact on them; instead, it presents important strategic opportunities: by diverting incremental computing power to their own products, they can effectively suppress external competitors' growth rates. As Chamath put it, Google's recent acquisition of Crusoe data centers is a direct reflection of this logic—"They have driven out the tenants and captured the entire asset."

In contrast, emerging cloud service providers (Neoclouds) and cutting-edge model companies (such as Anthropic and OpenAI), heavily dependent on externally rented computing power, are genuinely the "tenant class." Once new supply is locked down by state regulations, spot GPU prices will soar significantly, forcing these companies to either accept much higher bids or gradually fall behind in the fierce competition of model iteration due to insufficient computing power.

Notably, Anthropic and OpenAI are currently in a rapid model iteration cycle of 60 to 90 days. If the supply of computing power tightens, this rhythm will be forcibly slowed down, allowing time for models under major players like Google Gemini to catch up.

SpaceX's "90-Day Nuclear Button": A Contract That Determines the AI Landscape

Among all variables, Chamath believes the most decisive one is a little-known contract clause.

According to Chamath, in the computing power supply agreement between SpaceX and Anthropic, there exists a "two-way 90-day exit clause"—both parties can notify the other 90 days in advance to terminate the contract. This clause appears to be a standard commercial arrangement during stable market periods, but under the backdrop of a sudden tightening of computing power supply, it transforms into a "nuclear bomb" that can be detonated at any moment.

Chamath's logical deduction is as follows:

If the state permit freezes lead to a significant reduction in available computing power in the market, spot computing power prices will sharply rise. SpaceX will have ample economic incentive to terminate the existing contract and reprice at spot market prices—likely 2 to 3 times higher than the original contract price. Anthropic will have no choice but to swallow this price or face a life-and-death crisis of power supply interruptions.

The chain reaction of this action extends far beyond this. Chamath points out that it will force all hyperscale cloud providers to reevaluate their computing power allocation strategies—whether to continue renting at current prices to external clients or to retain all for their own models. Simultaneously, it will compel Neoclouds to deploy all their financing reserves to buy up any available computing power at the price peak to avoid being entirely squeezed out of the market.

"I believe all the game theory is condensed in this transaction. If Elon decides to rip up this contract, the consequences will be a complete reshuffling of the entire AI industry landscape." Chamath summarized.

Computing Power Going Abroad: The Strategic Risk of the U.S. Transitioning from "Exporter" to "Importer"

In the program, Jason Calacanis and David Sacks both issued warnings about the prospect of data center relocations.

The core logic is: data centers do not necessarily have to be located within the U.S. Ultra-large data centers at the scale of $50 billion can easily be established in Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, and after the war, even in the Middle East. Google has already laid out a large data center in Malaysia. With existing underwater cables, CDN technology, and the Starlink network, the delays and efficiencies of cross-border computing power delivery are no longer significant obstacles.

David Sacks explicitly pointed out that if the U.S. does not build these data centers, it will pay a high price for importing "tokens." Jason Calacanis supplemented with a more direct local cost: tens of thousands of construction jobs at salaries of $300,000 to $400,000 a year will be lost, and tax revenues that originally belonged to U.S. local governments will flow to Malaysia and other regions.

"These governors will be given a very heavy lesson in globalization." Jason Calacanis said.

David Friedberg raised a more radical policy risk—some extremely left-wing political figures have begun discussing not only the restriction of data center construction but also the limitation of AI model development, deployment, and even use itself. He believes the underlying logic is a fundamental contest between state power and control over AI technology: whoever masters the strongest AI capabilities will wield absolute advantages over citizens and markets.

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