Recently, Bitcoin has once again experienced concentrated loss selling in a sudden drop, with the long-established on-chain data organization Glassnode defining this behavior on X as a typical "seller surrender" — similar sell-offs occurred in early August, mid-August, and mid-September this year, ultimately corresponding to local bottoms at those times. This time, the sell-off also took place around the $80,000 mark, seen as a potential continuation of the "phase of loss liquidation that marks a bottom" pattern observed over the past few months. However, almost simultaneously, another completely different set of signals is accumulating: the Quantum Alliance, initiated by nine institutions including Hacken, Midnight Foundation, Quantus, and Postquant Labs, announced its establishment, estimating that approximately 6.4 million Bitcoin public keys, accounting for about 30.2% of the total Bitcoin supply, have been exposed on-chain or in other environments, turning attention to the potential quantum computing threats that could emerge in the future, and attempting to formulate unified anti-quantum security standards and migration routes for networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum. At the same time, the narrative surrounding Bitcoin as a "reserve asset" has not cooled down. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju compiled the latest views on MicroStrategy (MSTR) from firms like Citigroup, Barclays, and B. Riley on X, pointing to a common conclusion: analysts overall remain bullish, with most price targets maintaining a relatively high range of around $175-$240, while MSTR's current market capitalization roughly matches its adjusted net asset value, and the price of related preferred stocks, STRC, remains stable around par value, indicating that the impact of changes in rules on capital allocation has already been priced in by the market. Following this, another protagonist in the Bitcoin reserve narrative, Strive, announced an increase in the issuance size of SATS perpetual preferred shares from 5 million to 7 million shares, with a price of $90 per share and an annual dividend yield of 15%, expecting to raise approximately $630 million. If the funds are ultimately used to purchase and hold Bitcoin, it is regarded as an attack on the position of "the second largest listed Bitcoin reserve company after MSTR." Amidst the panic selling in short-term prices, long-term concerns over security from quantum threats, and the ongoing optimistic bets from reserve companies, Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroad where long and short narratives intertwine.

Seller Surrender Reappears: Glassnode's Bottom Pattern

At nodes where short-term sentiment swings wildly, on-chain behavior often precedes narrative discourse. Glassnode's latest analysis on the X platform has focused on the recent wave of "loss selling" during this drop — not profit-taking from high positions, but rather holders choosing to accept losses under negative balances, which they regard as a typical signal of seller surrender. According to their historical data, similar significant loss sell-offs have occurred three times this year: early August, mid-August, and mid-September, each taking place after price corrections and subsequently approximately aligning with the local bottom areas at those times, initially outlining a pattern of "market briefly stabilizing after deep loss selling."

This time, Glassnode further pointed out that since the September peak, the on-chain selling rhythm has shifted from earlier profit-taking to more chips from those in a loss state, with a new wave of loss selling occurring recently around the $80,000 mark, apparently continuing the script from the past few months. Under this premise, they offered a conditional judgment: if the above pattern continues to hold, then this wave of loss selling occurring above $80,000 may correspond to another stage bottom. However, the "if" in this premise itself serves as a reminder — the historical three correspondences still provide a limited sample, and whether seller surrender can accurately indicate a bottom again remains uncertain, more akin to an observational signal that requires continuous tracking rather than a universally replicable profit-making template.

6.4 Million Public Keys Exposed: Quantum Alliance's Alarm Bell

While many people focus on whether the "loss selling" above $80,000 can signal a bottom again, another lower-frequency signal quietly emerges. The Quantum Alliance, launched by nine institutions including Hacken, Midnight Foundation, Quantus, and Postquant Labs, announced an estimated result: approximately 6.4 million Bitcoin public keys have been exposed on-chain or in other environments, accounting for 30.2% of the current total supply. This is not a daily volatility data point but a reminder that a considerable proportion of the chips on-chain are at risk of being reassessed by future technological advancements.

The objective of establishing the Quantum Alliance deliberately avoids short-term market narratives, directly addressing foundational security standards: to establish unified anti-quantum security protocols for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchain networks and to plan for the publication of corresponding security tests and migration guidelines, providing an operational framework for potential future anti-quantum upgrades. Once a public key is exposed, it means that in the long-term context of evolving quantum computing capabilities, this portion of assets theoretically faces higher risks of technical attacks, though when and in what form this will materialize remains highly uncertain. Compared to the seller surrender pattern characterized by Glassnode, these quantum security actions may not directly influence the next candlestick but fill in an easily overlooked dimension: while prices may stabilize locally, the foundational security structure is being forced to think about the next defensive line ahead of time.

MSTR Receives Target Price Upgrades from Multiple Firms: Betting on Bitcoin Against the Wind

Apart from discussions on quantum security and on-chain defenses, another set of signals from the capital markets comes from the Bitcoin reserve company MSTR. As a listed company deeply linking its assets to Bitcoin, it has not experienced unified bearish sentiment during this price oscillation; rather, the investment opinions compiled by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju on X show that mainstream analysts are generally bullish, with recent trends indicating upward adjustments or maintenance of high targets. Citigroup has given a target price of around $240, Barclays around $175, and B. Riley about $195. While this range is not consistent, the consensus premise remains: MSTR is still regarded as a worthwhile vehicle to indirectly bet on Bitcoin through its stock price.

Ki Young Ju further dissects this "betting against the wind" through the valuation structure. He mentions that MSTR's mNAV (modified net asset value multiple) is about 1.0 times, with the current market capitalization roughly matching its adjusted net asset value, showing no obvious bubble or deep discount; related preferred stock STRC prices remain at par value, showing no drastic discount or premium trends. Against the backdrop of MSCI-related decisions already priced into the market and changes in some capital allocation rules, investment banks still are willing to give a bullish pricing range on this company, essentially accepting Bitcoin exposure risk while carrying a relatively reasonable balance sheet structure to support a long-term bet aimed at the next cycle.

Strive Expands SATS Issuance to Challenge Bitcoin's Second Tier

While MSTR has created a "fund-like" Bitcoin exposure through preferred stocks and corporate bonds, another institution is quietly vying for a position in the second tier. Public information shows that Strive originally planned to issue 5 million SATS perpetual preferred shares but then directly raised the scale to 7 million shares, with an issuance price of $90 per share, aiming to raise about $630 million, accompanied by a high annual dividend yield of about 15%. This means that SATS is neither a pure cycle gamble nor a traditional defensive asset, but a structure that locks in capital with high dividends and lets the company assume Bitcoin price risk on the balance sheet, with the expected delivery window around October 20, depending on the issuance progress.

Market reports widely believe that if this funding is used as planned to purchase and hold Bitcoin reserves long-term, Strive is likely to become the second-largest listed Bitcoin reserve company after MSTR, directly pushing itself into the "second-tier leader" position. In sharp contrast to retail investors being forced into loss selling on-chain, institution-level actions like this capital expansion often occur during times of intense volatility and controversy: on one side, there is seller surrender under Glassnode's data, and on the other side is a plan to convert more company capital into on-chain positions through high-yield preferred stocks. Continuing to press bets in a period where panic sentiment has not fully receded reflects a certain level of long-term confidence towards the next Bitcoin cycle while being willing to lock in with clear yield terms.

Short-term Panic Collides with Long-term Confidence: The Game Continues

When Glassnode outlines a seller surrender pattern that has repeatedly appeared over the past few months through "loss selling," it provides only a clearly stated hypothesis: only under the condition that this pattern continues can the recent selling pressure above approximately $80,000 possibly be retrospectively viewed as a stage bottom rather than the start of a new drop. Parallel to this short-term panic statistical scenario, the Quantum Alliance puts forth the exposure of about 6.4 million public keys, accounting for 30.2% of the supply, warning that quantum security and public key exposure will hang over Bitcoin in the long run, continuously reshaping its narrative as a reserve asset. On the other hand, MSTR receiving higher target prices around $175-$240 from institutions like Citigroup, Barclays, and B. Riley, with an mNAV of about 1.0 times and related preferred stocks STRC maintaining near par value, combined with Strive increasing SATS issuance from 5 million to 7 million shares and attempting to exchange high-yield perpetual chips worth about $630 million for more on-chain positions, these actions continue to advance during price volatility, forming long-term signals that collide with on-chain seller surrender. Standing today, the so-called "stage bottom" can only be a working hypothesis with clear premises: readers need to continue observing whether the loss selling pattern is validated again, whether the formulation and implementation rhythm of anti-quantum security standards keeps pace with the narrative, and how the stock prices and fundraising needs of Bitcoin reserve companies represented by MSTR and Strive adjust to market conditions and regulatory changes. These evolutionary directions will collectively determine whether the current panic is the prelude to a cyclical turning point or the starting point for a longer-term risk reassessment.

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