原文：《How Should Investors Position Portfolios Before the 2026 Midterm Elections?》
With the November midterm elections approaching, one theme runs through nearly every asset class: the deficit problem isn’t going away, regardless of which party emerges on top.
In Jan van Eck’s Q3 2026 Investment Outlook , he said that investors should stay invested but be increasingly selective. Our investment teams broadly echoed this view, as they focus on the policy and market dynamics the election results may set in motion.
To help investors understand the potential impact across asset classes, we asked investment team leaders two questions:
- What election issues and market indicators should investors be watching in relation to your asset class/strategy?
- What do you view as the biggest risks and opportunities in your space through the end of 2026?
Read on to see how the 2026 Midterm Elections may impact:
Should the 2026 Midterm Elections Drive Major Shifts in Gold Allocations?
Fiscal Pressure Keeps Gold Case Intact
Ima Casanova
Indicators to Watch
We believe gold investors should focus less on the election result itself than on the policy path and market reaction that follow. Continued Republican control could mean greater continuity in the current policy environment, while a shift to divided government could introduce greater legislative gridlock, oversight and political uncertainty. In either case, the implications for the U.S. dollar, interest rates and fiscal policy are likely to matter more for gold than the party outcome itself.
The 2014 midterms offer one example: Republicans gained control of the Senate and expanded their House majority, while the immediate market reaction included a stronger U.S. dollar and sharp weakness in gold. Investors should therefore closely watch the dollar, interest rates and real yields, bullion ETF flows and central-bank purchases, as well as broader inflation and recession indicators.
For miners, key variables include the gold price relative to all-in sustaining costs, along with energy and labor cost trends. With gold near $4,400/oz and industry costs well below that level, margins remain historically strong, providing support largely independent of the election outcome.
Risks and Opportunities
In our view, the largest opportunity through year-end is continued investment demand for gold alongside a further re-rating of gold mining equities. The U.S. national debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, bringing greater attention to the country’s longer-term fiscal trajectory and potentially reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against fiscal, currency and financial-market risk.
For miners, strong gold prices relative to production costs continue to support historically elevated margins and free cash flow, allowing companies to strengthen balance sheets, return capital and fund growth while maintaining greater capital discipline.
The principal risk is a resurgence in the U.S. dollar and interest rates—particularly if persistent inflation requires the Federal Reserve to maintain a more restrictive policy stance. A soft landing, higher real yields or renewed dollar strength could weigh on gold, while profit-taking or liquidity-driven selling following its strong run could create additional near-term volatility. These factors may affect the pace of returns even if the longer-term fundamental backdrop for gold remains constructive.
For Investors in Commodities, What Factors Are Key in 2026 Midterms Elections?
Dollar Risk Spells Opportunity
Roland Morris
Indicators to Watch
The midterm elections are important for the dollar and therefore important for commodities. First, neither party is focused on the U.S. deficit problem. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent intervention into the bond market highlighted the fiscal problems that both parties are ignoring. I think the election will be a catalyst for another decline in the value of the dollar and bullish for commodities. Additionally, if the Democrats win big, taking the House and Senate—which is not expected—the dollar could decline even more on fears of even bigger fiscal deficits.
Risks and Opportunities
Global trade normalization is the key variable. If current tariffs and geopolitical conflicts are resolved, supply constraints may ease and expose commodities to oversupply concerns. Until then, persistent trade disruption continues to limit the supply of commodities and supports a constructive outlook for commodity prices.
Are the 2026 Midterm Elections A Turning Point for Fixed Income?
Bond Markets March On
Fran Rodilosso
Indicators to Watch
Much will be said about who controls which chamber and the impact on the policy initiatives of the last two years of the current administration. We are highly confident, however, that no election outcome will have significant impact on the largest issues driving bond markets. First there is fiscal. Second, and related to fiscal but also driven by massive infrastructure investment, is bond supply.
While we are aware that public resistance to data centers has made this infrastructure a hot button topic into November, we are of the opinion that there will be less political will at the national level to address public concerns as soon as the ballots are cast. With regard to fiscal, it will be a question of choosing your federal budget poison, but neither party appears positioned or willing to reverse the worsening debt and deficit situations.
The revenue side of the federal budget will be difficult if not impossible to adjust, as very few tax provisions are scheduled to expire. Even Democrats controlling two houses—not our default scenario—would be very unlikely to muster enough votes to override a veto if they endeavored to roll back various tax cuts. They might, however, have greater success in reversing some SNAP and Medicaid cuts, as well as restoring ACA subsidies. Republicans, on the other hand, are likely to continue to support an expanding defense budget while supporting further tax breaks. In addition to the impact of a worsening fiscal picture, a split between House and Senate could increase the probability of government shutdowns and debt ceiling showdowns.
Risks and Opportunities
Our bottom line is that we do not see the election forcing a change in our preferred positioning, which remains biased towards low duration, up in quality, and diversification away from the core. A risk to our duration view lies less in the elections and more in the upcoming Fed meetings, where we will learn a lot more about how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone will manifest. For now, we would stick to investment grade collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) as a defensive core allocation with attractive yield. We would also continue to seek ways to diversify away from Treasury risk—recent allocations to international and especially emerging market bonds suggest we are not alone in this view. The justifications for emerging market allocations include, on average, higher real interest rates, lower deficits, and significantly lower sovereign debt levels.
In the 2026 Midterms, What’s Important for Municipal Bond Investors?
State Tax Ballot Measures May Reshape Market
Tamara Lowin
Indicators to Watch
State and local governments are beginning to feel the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduces federal support for several large expenses including healthcare. For those that want to make up for expected funding gaps, new or increased revenue streams will be necessary. Historically, most states that altered their personal income tax structure to become more progressive—whether moving from a flat tax to multiple brackets or increasing the highest tax bracket—have had a Democratic Congress, Governor, and Attorney General, even in cases where the tax increase required a citizen ballot vote.
Currently, 10 states have a “millionaire tax” that adds a bracket for taxable income over approximately $1 million, usually 1–4% above the next bracket. Five states have personal income tax ballot measures on the ballot in November. Thirteen other states have property tax and sales tax measures on the ballot, but the municipal bond tax-exemption means that personal income tax changes are felt more acutely. This November could increase the in-state attractiveness of municipal bonds in Washington State by almost 10% and implement a one-time 5% wealth tax in California for those with over $1 billion in wealth. Watching the 36 governor elections this year will be a good indicator of potential future initiatives.
Extrapolating to the federal level, an increase in federal tax rates is less likely, although other changes will impact the market. Changes in the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) and State and Local Taxes (SALT) deduction have impacted the investment decisions of wealthy individuals who invest in municipal bonds, and more changes to the federal tax code will impact the market as well. On the other side, if the federal government increases its funding of state healthcare costs and transportation projects, it will bolster the fiscal health of states and local governments, improving underlying credit quality.
Risks and Opportunities
While rumors of municipals losing their federal tax exemption persist, there is no concerted effort in Washington, D.C. from either party currently. Investment grade municipals are likely to continue taking their cues from Treasuries and inflation, and high yield municipals will feel additional impact from government funding and demographics.
Why Should Emerging Market Bond Investors Watch the 2026 Midterm Elections?
Election Uncertainty Bullish for EM
Eric Fine
Indicators to Watch
Uncertainty is more important to watch than outcome, but outcome is important, too. Investors entered summer not really thinking about midterms, and they exit thinking about them. That alone is an injection of new uncertainty. The uncertainty maps to U.S. fiscal sustainability and Treasury reserve status. As a result, the simple fact of the U.S. having fractious elections with potential fiscal implications is a downside risk for developed market bond exposure, but simultaneously an upside risk for emerging market bond exposure, particularly in local currency. The outcome also matters: any greater-than-anticipated representation from the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in the House or Senate would likely inject more durable worries over fiscal sustainability, which would be even more bullish for emerging market bonds, particularly local.
Risks and Opportunities
Market participants’ dawning realization that the NATO/Russia and U.S./Israel/Iran conflicts could remain either unresolved or resolved “badly” is the biggest top-down risk to our asset class. The transmission mechanism would be higher global rates and inflation, and resultant recession risks. However, this is a risk to developed market bonds, not as much for emerging market bonds.
Emerging market bonds generally have higher real rates, and most in the benchmarks are commodities exporters. So again, the global top-down risk is an adverse risk to developed market portfolios, but probably a positive risk for emerging market portfolios.
How Could 2026 Midterm Election Results Reshape the Outlook for Emerging Market Equities?
Trade and Tech Drive Outlook
Ola El-Shawarby
Indicators to Watch
For emerging market equities, the key election issues are trade policy, U.S.–China technology restrictions and the fiscal outlook. Unlike the 2024 general election, the midterms are unlikely to represent a major change of policy regime for our asset class. The midterms determine Congressional control. The current administration retains substantial authority over tariffs and foreign policy, making executive decisions important alongside the Congressional outcome. Investors should watch how proposals addressing affordability and jobs could affect inflation, deficits and borrowing costs. Key indicators include U.S. inflation, Treasury yields, the dollar and energy prices.
Emerging market central banks face different domestic conditions, but higher global borrowing costs and currency pressure can limit their room to ease. Middle East conflict developments remain particularly consequential for energy-importing economies. For emerging market technology, third-quarter earnings and AI spending guidance into 2027 will test growth expectations. Changes in U.S. policy toward data center development, power infrastructure and AI regulation could also influence the pace of investment and demand for emerging market companies supplying the chips, equipment and infrastructure behind AI.
Risks and Opportunities
Through the end of 2026, we remain mindful of risks from concentrated positioning in AI and renewed dollar strength. Neither a sharp unwinding of AI positions nor a sustained dollar rally is our base case, but either could pressure emerging market valuations even if underlying earnings remain resilient. Elevated energy prices and tighter financial conditions could amplify these risks.
Conversely, easing inflation and geopolitical tensions could improve financial conditions and support broader gains across emerging markets. We see opportunities across the AI supply chain, as well as China's domestic technology investment. Domestic compounders and resource and infrastructure companies across Latin America and other emerging markets offer complementary growth drivers. Our emphasis remains on durable earnings, strong balance sheets and reasonable valuations, with volatility potentially creating better entry points.
Why Should Digital Asset and Bitcoin Investors Pay Close Attention to the 2026 Midterm Elections?
Regulatory Clarity, Fiscal Pressure and Monetary Policy in Focus
Matthew Sigel
Indicators to Watch
We would separate Bitcoin from the rest of crypto. Bitcoin did fine under the Biden administration and should remain driven primarily by fiscal and monetary conditions rather than which party controls Congress. The election matters more for other digital assets, where the CLARITY Act would establish durable rules for how crypto markets operate in the U.S., including exchanges and intermediaries, decentralized finance (DeFi), self-custody, stablecoin rewards and banking access. Without legislation, much of that framework remains vulnerable to changing regulatory priorities from one administration to the next.
For Bitcoin, we are more focused on fiscal and monetary policy. Treasury's increasing reliance on shorter-term debt to meet marginal borrowing needs makes interest expense more sensitive to higher rates and reinforces concerns about fiscal dominance. Democratic control of both houses would likely entrench legislative gridlock with a Republican White House, while potentially reducing the prospects for meaningful fiscal consolidation. And recent victories by democratic-socialist candidates may remind investors of Bitcoin's core proposition: an asset whose issuance schedule sits outside Washington and cannot be changed to finance whatever spending scheme Washington dreams up next. We are watching Treasury's issuance mix, the dollar, Fed policy, ETP flows and long-term holder supply.
Risks and Opportunities
The biggest near-term risk is tighter liquidity. Markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hike in September, oil is up sharply on Middle East supply disruptions, and the Bank of Japan is moving toward its highest policy rate in three decades. Bitcoin has no buyer of last resort, so monetary tightening that drains liquidity is rarely a positive omen. Still, we think the bottom is in. We believe the four-year cycle is now moving in investors' favor: the last three Bitcoin bear phases averaged 12.7 months, putting the historical transition from capitulation to accumulation between September and November.
Our bottoming indicators reinforce that view. All 12 signals in our Bitcoin Capitulation Check entered their capitulation zones during the three months before Treasury Secretary Bessent's move toward greater reliance on shorter-term issuance, suggesting much of the forced selling had already run its course. With the cycle turning and seller exhaustion behind us, we expect investors to become increasingly willing to buy dips as we move toward 2027.
What Do the 2026 Midterm Elections Mean for VC, IPOs, M&A and Private Growth Markets?
Fed Policy, Regulation and AI Are the Swing Factors
Christian Munafo
Indicators to Watch
For the venture capital (VC) and private growth space, it is important to monitor interest rate policy and the regulatory landscape. Even though VC/growth companies are typically not levered, rising rates can be negative for these perceived “risk assets”, which can compress growth rates and valuations while constricting capital formation and deal/exit (IPO and M&A) activity.
Also, debt markets are increasingly funding the capital expenditures required to build out artificial intelligence (AI) and data center infrastructure. On the regulatory side, the Trump Administration's aggressive deregulation activated significant capital formation and exit activity (particularly M&A) across numerous industries while promoting areas of innovation like AI. A reversal or tightening of regulatory policies could negatively impact those trends for VC/growth, particularly changes involving AI policy.
Risks and Opportunities
A rising interest rate environment and increased regulation could have negative impacts on growth rates, VC/growth valuations, capital formation, and deal/exit activity. Given how significant AI's impact has been on the broader economy—driving valuations higher and improving productivity—any indications of a deceleration in AI-related growth and/or increased regulation could provide headwinds for the VC/growth space. That said, these headwinds often create dislocations which sophisticated private market investors can optimize for improved negotiating leverage and discounted pricing opportunities.
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