Recently, the overall on-chain Meme sentiment has been continuously cooling down. How long can this reverse carnival of Arc last?

Written by: Nancy, PANews

The Arc mainnet has finally launched as scheduled, and on-chain players are rushing to the new "trenches".

Some have "sneaked" in beforehand, benefiting greatly; others have rushed in and out, grabbing the first wave of liquidity after opening; some are dazzled by the rapidly emerging Meme coins; and there are those who are simply betting on platform tokens. However, the overall on-chain Meme sentiment has been continuously cooling down recently. How long can this reverse carnival of Arc last?

Meme players rush to take the lead and compete for speed, with over a million transactions on the first day of the mainnet

Before the Arc mainnet launch, funds have already started to get ready.

Data from the Arc block explorer shows that on-chain activity had notably increased even before the mainnet launch. On September 14 and 15, the number of transactions per day exceeded 400,000, while a few days prior this figure was only in the tens of thousands; during the same period, around 21,000 new addresses were added on-chain, whereas previously only a few hundred were added daily, or even fewer.

To seize the "top coin", many players were even willing to pay high premiums to ambush early, with USDC premiums once reaching 80%-100%.

Some players who entered the market earlier have already achieved astonishing paper gains. For instance, according to on-chain analyst Ai Aunty's monitoring, after the Arc mainnet went live today, address 0xE73…60BF2 had already crossed USDC from the Robinhood network to Arc via Long on September 8, subsequently ambushing LONG, BITCOIN, and USDC tokens. Among them, the holding cost of LONG was as low as $0.0000136, with a total investment of $487.6, and the current floating profit has reached $578,000, achieving a return rate of 118,483%.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, another trader purchased 12.1 million ARGUS on the Arc Chain for about $1,200, then sold 1.8 million of them, making a profit of about $30,900 while still holding around 10.1 million ARGUS, currently valued at about $332,000. Data shows that this address has an accumulated profit of about $361,000 on ARGUS, with a return rate of 302 times.

However, behind the high returns of early chips is also a more intense on-chain PVP. With a large amount of funds competing for early chips, some Meme coins rapidly increased in market value, and price fluctuations have also significantly intensified. Players need not only good vision but also quick reflexes. Especially for those funds that "sprint" at high premiums, the target's market value must at least double to have a chance to cover the premiums paid at entry. Of course, some players choose to participate by forming liquidity pools, attempting to "pick up money" from the early liquidity.

On the day the mainnet launched, the influx of funds accelerated further. According to data from the Arc block explorer, as of the publication of this article on September 16, the number of transactions in a single day had surpassed 1.16 million, reaching 278,000 in just the past hour; the total number of on-chain addresses was approximately 216,000, with over 78,000 new addresses added today. Currently, the total amount of USDC in the Arc network has exceeded 380 million, accounting for about 0.05% of the total USDC supply.

In the "hundred regiments battle" sparked by the Launchpad on Arc, currently, only 3 tokens have surpassed a market value of ten million dollars, which are ARGUS, LONG, and TOLLY. Among the Top 10 popular tokens tracked by the social trading platform Fomo, only 2 are from the Arc ecosystem.

However, while the Meme coin market has been hot recently, some new attack methods have also appeared on chains like Arc, and even many Meme veterans have fallen victim. Multiple traders have warned that some users, while browsing the Meme coin display pages, have been directed to malicious websites disguised as Cloudflare verification pages. After users complete the so-called "verification" as instructed on the page, their computers may be infected with malicious programs, subsequently resulting in the transfer of on-chain assets. Some affected players claim to have lost around $600,000 due to this.

For Meme players accustomed to rushing early markets, the hotter the market, the easier FOMO emotions are amplified, and the more vigilant one needs to be against these types of disguised attacks. Especially in the early stages of the mainnet launch, imitation exchanges, phishing links, and disguised pages appear intensively, and the risks of both rushing and security often rise simultaneously. For DEXs, protocols, or third-party pages that have not been confirmed, users should first verify through official project announcements and official social media channels before engaging in on-chain interactions. After all, before seizing the first wave of the market, it’s better not to hand over your chips.

The on-chain carnival cools down, and Meme players begin to retreat

Unlike the hot scene on Arc, the Meme market on other chains is clearly cooling down.

Dune data shows that on September 4, Meme trading volume reached a single-day peak of about $1.2 billion this year, then fell back, currently down to about $520 million. Several chains, including Robinhood Chain, Solana, and BNB Chain, have all seen varying degrees of decline in trading activity.

Taking Robinhood Chain as an example, although the number of token launches has continued to increase recently, the enthusiasm for funds has not been maintained. Its daily trading volume currently stands at about $400 million, which is less than one-third of its historical peak of $1.5 billion.

From the performance of tokens, the cooling trend is equally evident. GMGN data shows that most on-chain Meme tokens are currently in a correction state, including popular top tokens such as PONS, AI, NiuLai, MarsCoin, STONK, and ZCAT.

This round of decline in Meme enthusiasm is partly related to the launch of the Arc mainnet. As new chains go live and quickly attract traffic, some market attention and on-chain liquidity have been drawn to Arc, impacting the funds on other chains;

On the other hand, the uncertainty of policies and the macro environment is also affecting market sentiment. The policy uncertainty brought about by the stalled progress of the Clarity Act has also impacted the short-term risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market to some extent. Meanwhile, the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, with a rate hike in September deemed imminent, contributes to a weakening risk appetite environment, making high-volatility Meme assets more easily affected by changes in market sentiment.

As the market cools down, even many "headlining" players are not escaping significant pullbacks, while some regular players choose to cut losses and exit, and others are temporarily observing, waiting for the next buying opportunity.

The first wave of conflicts in Arc has already begun, but as the early dividends gradually fade away, whether its market heat can be sustained may still need more time to observe.