Written by: Rita

On September 4, Bank of America Securities released the attendance report for the CrowdStrike Fal.Con 2026 conference. The annual attendance for CrowdStrike reached approximately 10,000 people, setting a historical record. CrowdStrike launched new AI security products including Falcon Guardian, SafeMind, Superintelligence Lab, and Agentic Identity, and advanced its long-term ARR targets by one year each. The FY30 target is $10 billion, and the FY35 target is $20 billion. The FY28 nnARR growth expectation has been raised to over 20%.

CrowdStrike believes AI has become the new battlefield for security. The company's capabilities in runtime for endpoints and cloud workloads have positioned it as a leader in the security field in the agent era. Falcon Flex remains a commercial engine, with total contract value nearing $2.3 billion, a year-on-year growth of 101%. Average ARR increase after Flex customer upgrades has risen to 40%. Bank of America has raised profit expectations, with an FY28 FCF profit margin target of at least 32.5%.

Long-term ARR targets advanced by one year

CrowdStrike has advanced the FY30 $10 billion ARR target from FY31 to FY30 and the FY35 $20 billion target from FY36 to FY35. Management expects FY28 nnARR growth of over 20%, based on an FY27 nnARR median of $1.355 billion, which implies that FY28 nnARR will be at least approximately $1.626 billion, well above the market consensus of $1.537 billion.

Management's confidence comes from recent performance records. Q2 nnARR reached $333 million, a year-on-year growth of 51%. Falcon Flex continues to be adopted, and AI security opportunities are expanding. The FY28 FCF profit margin target is at least 32.5%, with capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue rising to 11% to 12%.

Product matrix fully shifts to AI

Falcon Guardian is the most attention-grabbing new product at this conference. It utilizes CrowdStrike's runtime sensor data and threat intelligence to detect and respond to agent attacks at reasoning speed. Guardian can be activated immediately for existing sensor deployments without additional deployment.

SafeMind is another highlight. It is sold through a “token package” model, allowing customers to commit to purchase and expand through Flex, directly transforming AI innovations into incremental ARR. Enhancements from Superintelligence Lab, Agentic Identity, and Agentic SOC further refine the product matrix.

CrowdStrike's core logic is that AI is shifting cybersecurity from the nation-state era to the "agent era." Attack capabilities that previously required national resources are being acquired by low-skilled adversaries through AI. Agent attacks operate at the second level, with very low costs and minimal expertise required. Defending against this environment requires an integrated security architecture that covers runtime, identity, cloud, data, and response, with AI operating at reasoning speed.

CrowdStrike's strategic advantage lies in integrating endpoint and workload telemetry, identity context, threat intelligence, and automated responses on a single platform. Management emphasized on Investor Day that the AI security market will be larger than the endpoint security market, with a steeper adoption curve than cloud security. Bank of America expects Guardian to provide significant upsell potential for the existing customer base in FY27 and FY28.

Falcon Flex is the commercialization engine

Falcon Flex operates under a commitment model, unlike the consumption model. After customers make a one-time commitment, they can dynamically activate additional modules without renegotiating the entire contract. The total Flex contract value is nearing $2.3 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 101%, with 935 new Flex opportunities added in the latest quarter.

Flex adoption is spreading from large enterprises to a broader customer base. The proportion of enterprise customers has decreased from 61% in Q2 26 to 50%, while non-enterprise customers have increased to 50%. The proportion of non-Flex contracts is expected to continue declining, as the company transitions to a "Flex-first" model.

Clients switching from non-Flex to Flex have seen average ARR increases from 34% last year to 40%. Bank of America believes that the combination of product breadth, pre-installed technology, and simplified procurement helps shorten the adoption cycle, transforming AI innovations into incremental ARR.

Improved profit outlook

Bank of America has raised CrowdStrike's profit expectations. The FY28 FCF profit margin target is at least 32.5%, an increase from previous expectations, with capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue rising to 11% to 12%. Bank of America’s target price is $230, based on approximately 32 times FY27 EV/sales. This valuation premium compared to high-growth SaaS peers (13 to 19 times) is supported by CrowdStrike's strong competitive position in the endpoint security field and long-term growth opportunities in cross-cloud security, log management, and identity protection.

Downside risks include investor sensitivity to high valuations, lower than expected new product adoption rates, slowing customer expansion, security vulnerability risks, and intensified competition from existing and next-generation vendors.

Disclaimer

This article is a compilation and interpretation of third-party brokerage research reports (Bank of America Securities, September 4, 2026) by潮向研究, along with a summary of publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, profit forecasts, and related judgments quoted in this document represent the views of the brokerage analysts and only reflect the stance of their institutions, not the views of潮向研究, nor does it constitute any investment advice.

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