Written by: Rita

Tesla's autonomous driving taxi is officially open to the public.

On September 4, Morgan Stanley released a research report indicating that Tesla's Cybercab is providing driverless travel services to the public in Austin. Users can select Cybercab (two-seater) or Model Y (four-seater) through the Tesla Robotaxi app. The specific scale of commercial operations is not yet clear, but several signals point to the ongoing advancement of larger-scale deployments. Morgan Stanley maintains a neutral rating, with a target price of $400, offering a 6% upside over the current stock price. The excess performance of the stock price on September 3 has already reflected the market's recognition of Tesla's Robotaxi business progress, with the key to further upward movement being the continuous fleet expansion validated by public data.

Native driverless vehicle without steering wheel or pedals

Cybercab is Tesla's first mass-produced model designed natively for driverless ride-hailing scenarios. The vehicle eliminates the steering wheel, accelerator pedal, and brake pedal, fully relying on the FSD (full self-driving) system for operation. The cabin contains only two seats and a 22-inch central control screen, which runs a real-time 3D user interface based on Epic Games’ Unreal Engine.

The vehicle features a matte gold paint job and butterfly-style doors, with a ground clearance of only 144 mm, making it easy to get in and out. The trunk has a volume of 572 liters, capable of accommodating two checked suitcases and two carry-on bags, with a folding wheelchair also fitting inside. The accessibility design is a highlight of Cybercab, as the seat height is close to the height of a wheelchair seat, with door handles and roof buttons labeled in Braille. Combined with Grok voice control, visually impaired passengers can independently request a ride and operate within the vehicle.

In terms of power, Cybercab adopts a single-motor front-wheel-drive layout with a maximum power output of 163 kW and a curb weight of approximately 1.41 tons. The battery capacity is about 47.6 kWh, providing a range of approximately 483 kilometers. Tesla states that the price of Cybercab is expected to be below $30,000, with an operating cost of less than $0.2 per mile. The vehicle supports wireless inductive charging and can connect to an automatic cleaning process, forming a fully automated operation and maintenance closed loop for energy replenishment and cleaning.

45 registered, signals of large-scale deployment emerge

Data from the Texas DMV (Department of Motor Vehicles) shows that as of September 3, Tesla has registered a total of 420 autonomous vehicles in Texas, of which only 45 are Cybercabs, while the remaining 375 are Robotaxi version Model Y vehicles. The regulatory registration number for Cybercab increased from 7 to 45 within a few days before the launch event.

The 45 vehicles are the DMV registration number and do not equate to the actual number of vehicles on the road carrying passengers during the same period. Videos circulating on platform X show that many Cybercabs are operating on the streets of Austin this week. Although the specific number available for commercial use is currently unclear, the intensity of road testing activities indicates that Tesla is preparing for a larger fleet deployment.

Tesla has also launched a new page allowing customers to express interest in purchasing Cybercab fleets, requiring them to fill in company information, deployment areas, and cooperation directions, with options including ride-hailing fleet purchases, travel hubs and infrastructure, and event collaboration. Tesla views Cybercab not only as a mobility service tool but as a product that can be sold directly.

The milestone of surpassing 1 million miles of unsupervised autonomous driving is another noteworthy achievement. Tesla's Vice President of Autopilot and AI Ashok Elluswamy announced this progress at the Cybercab event. The figure disclosed in the Q2 2026 earnings call was 380,000 miles. In just six weeks, an additional approximately 620,000 miles were added, indicating a significant acceleration in expansion. Previously, Tesla took over a year to reach 380,000 miles. Tesla stated that there were “no notable accidents” during this driving period.

Compared to Waymo, Tesla still has a significant scale gap. Waymo has deployed approximately 4,000 autonomous vehicles across 14 U.S. cities, completing over 500,000 rides per week. In Texas alone, Waymo has 988 registered vehicles, while Tesla’s total registration in Texas is 420 vehicles. Last week, Waymo announced its cumulative mileage has reached 200 million miles, having crossed the million-mile threshold back in 2023.

The per-vehicle cost of Cybercab is approximately $23,000 to $25,000, while Waymo's per-vehicle cost ranges from $70,000 to $150,000. Low cost is the core differentiator for Tesla's Robotaxi to achieve scaling. Goldman Sachs estimates the cost advantage of Cybercab at $0.05 to $0.30 per mile, making it more competitive compared to rivals. In San Francisco, Tesla's Robotaxi averaged a one-way fare of $8.17, about half of Uber's ($17.47) and 40% of Waymo's ($19.69). When Cybercab rolls out on a larger scale at lower costs, the pricing structure of the mobility market may face reconfiguration.

Breakdown of the $400 target price into five business segments

The $400 target price from Morgan Stanley is composed of five components.

The core automotive business is valued at $45 per share, based on an estimated sales volume of approximately 8.5 million vehicles in 2040, an 8.4% EBIT profit margin (excluding FSD), a 10.9% weighted average cost of capital, and a 10 times EBITDA multiple for the 2040 exit.

The network services are valued at $144 per share, making it the largest single component, based on an 80% FSD add-on rate and an ARPU of $240 per month in 2040.

Tesla Mobility (i.e., Robotaxi network) is valued at $120 per share, based on a discounted cash flow model, assuming approximately 5 million Tesla vehicles operate on the network at a price of about $1.33 per mile in 2040.

The energy business accounts for $35 per share, and humanoid robots for $56 per share (factoring in a 50% probability discount).

The Morgan Stanley target price of $400 corresponds to an expected P/E ratio of about 75 times for 2027, incorporating significant expectations for future Robotaxi network and FSD subscription revenues. A 10% change in the FSD add-on rate influences the valuation of network services by about $18 per share. Upside risks include increases in the FSD add-on rate, milestones in new battery cost achievements, the release of new models, accelerated deployment of Robotaxi, and progress with Optimus. Downside risks include intensified competition, execution risks for FSD and Robotaxi, regulatory uncertainty, risks in the Chinese market, and dilution effects. The NHTSA has initiated a review of whether Cybercab meets federal motor vehicle safety standards, similar to the regulatory pathway of Zoox, owned by Amazon, which took years to receive federal approval.

The official launch of Cybercab means that Tesla's Robotaxi commercialization has entered the operational validation stage. Morgan Stanley's neutral core assessment does not deny progress but rather waits for more quantifiable operational data, particularly the continued rate of fleet expansion. The 45 registered vehicles are a starting point, and the million-mile milestone is the first benchmark. When these two numbers begin to grow at a faster pace, the market's pricing of Tesla's Robotaxi business will shift from "expectation" to "fact."

Disclaimer

This article is an organization and interpretation of third-party brokerage research reports (Morgan Stanley, September 4, 2026) by Trend Research, combined with the organization of public market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments quoted in the text are the opinions of the analysts from that brokerage firm and only represent their institution's stance, not the viewpoint of Trend Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.

The market has risks, and decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as the basis for buying or selling any securities.