Author: Long Yue

Less than two weeks until the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 16, the voting pattern is highly contentious, and Powell's silence is becoming the biggest suspense in the market.

Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, pointed out on social media that, besides the game of macro data, voting patterns are becoming a key factor influencing the current direction of Federal Reserve policy. He wrote:

I have always believed that observing the Federal Reserve now is about counting votes.

With Federal Reserve governor Waller recently indicating a preference to maintain interest rates, Bianco has organized the current voting pattern as: 6 votes (maintain) against 5 votes (raise), with 1 vote still unknown—that is former chairman Powell (Powell's term as chairman of the Federal Reserve ended on May 15 of this year, and he currently continues to serve as a Federal Reserve governor).

Bianco's personal voting sheet

Powell: Deliberately low profile, yet a key variable

Bianco pointed out that Powell has not spoken publicly since the May press conference, "He wants to fade out of the public eye."

This strategy, in Bianco's view, has its background: Trump's continued criticism of the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about the committee's independence, leading FOMC voting members to gradually shift towards more clearly anchoring their positions through public statements.

However, Powell's silence has now created uncertainty. Bianco wrote:

If everyone votes according to public statements, Powell's vote is crucial.

Probability of rate hike: Actually 50/50

Bianco's conclusion is direct and clear:

This is why, with less than two weeks to the meeting, the probability of a rate hike is actually 50/50.

On August 30, he had previously predicted that the voting result on September 16 would be 7 to 5, but the direction was still uncertain—“I just don't know if it will be 7 to 5 for a hike or 7 to 5 to maintain."

Currently, with Waller leaning towards maintaining rates, the maintain faction is temporarily leading with 6 to 5, but Powell's vote can still tilt the balance, leaving the final outcome uncertain.

Bianco believes that Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve is an important background for understanding the current voting division.

He stated that because of concerns over independence, FOMC members have begun to prefer clarifying their positions through public statements rather than relying on internal discussions to reach a consensus. This allows outsiders to track policy direction relatively clearly through the "vote counting" method.

Since 1936, there has never been a 6–6 voting result. The closest occurrences were 6–5 in 1963, 1964, and 1973. The U.S. Federal Reserve Act does not provide for tie outcomes. He wrote:

It is speculated that this means maintaining the status quo, as no agreement has been reached, the Federal Reserve will continue to keep the federal funds rate stable. Of course, they could agree to hold a second (or third) vote until the tie is broken.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。