Author: Jiayi

Recently, there has been a piece of news that I feel the market has not yet fully realized its importance. I want to emphasize it again. Coinbase and Better are truly integrating Crypto mortgages into the U.S. housing finance system. Eligible homebuyers can leverage their owned Bitcoin for down payment loans without needing to sell their BTC first. Furthermore, a decline in BTC price alone will not trigger a Margin Call. After the loan is paid off, the mortgaged BTC will also be returned.

The significance of this matter is far beyond just a new mortgage product.

The U.S. financial system's understanding of Crypto has evolved from ignoring it ---- to considering it a scam ---- to viewing it as a speculative asset that can be bought and sold ---- and today, it is gradually becoming capital that can be mortgaged, lent, and connected to real-world assets.

However, this piece of news has not catalyzed the market significantly.

This is also one of the reasons I've recently started to take Crypto seriously again:

The fundamentals of Crypto may be undergoing changes greater than the price itself. Asset premiums stem from catalytic opportunities, and I believe this opportunity is getting closer, waiting for an explosion.

I don’t know if the market has bottomed out

I also don’t believe that a bull market is imminent. Even less do I think that a Token that has dropped 90% should automatically rebound.

Recently, I have been learning finance from zero through AI, so my investment logic is: at today’s price, how much downside do I still have? How big is the potential upside? How long might I need to wait? How much volatility should I endure? Can this project survive until it is re-evaluated?

From this perspective, I believe that some quality Crypto assets have entered a very attractive range of odds compared to the past few years.

This is a Payoff Call. I call the previous assets that have fallen for so long, many of which are still relatively promising, have now reached a point of very good fundamental odds.

So I began to enter positions again

Much downside has already been released in the past bear market

Bitcoin has retraced over 50% from its 2025 high, and many Altcoins have dropped 80%, 90%, or even more.

The market has experienced a long period of deleveraging, capital outflows, valuation compression, and confidence collapse. Many people are no longer willing to look at Crypto, thinking that this market has been poor for a while and will have no opportunities in the future.

Some projects indeed should drop. Some have no real product, no users, only Token incentives and Narrative. And some projects are unlikely to ever return to their historical highs.

Therefore, the asset characteristics I am currently focusing on are: Price collapsed. Fundamentals did not. The price has collapsed, but the underlying fundamentals are still good.

For these assets, the past bear market has released a significant portion of the downside, but once re-priced in the future, the upside remains substantial.

This is where the odds are very cost-effective.

In early 2026, Crypto ETFs did indeed experience continuous capital outflows. But that was a result of the previous market conditions.

Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have seen consecutive inflows, accumulating close to $2 billion over five trading days. Institutions have certainly not returned comprehensively and on a large scale, but at least they have shifted from continuous retreat to testing the waters in this market.

Funds have just begun to return, but market confidence has not yet returned.

I am currently looking at four main types of opportunities

The first category includes directions that large U.S. funds and financial institutions are genuinely paying attention to, using, or currently building positions in.

The second category includes undervalued projects in these important sectors. That is to say, better cost-effective alternatives to leaders or Tier Three assets.

When all attention is focused on one leader, the valuation of the leader may have already incorporated a lot of expectations. But within the same sector, some projects already have their own users, products, and survival capabilities, and the gap in fundamentals is not as significant as the valuation gap.

The third category includes projects that have already achieved PMF, have real cash flow, and do not need to continue selling tokens to survive.

I will no longer pay for pure narratives.

Products that users genuinely need and are willing to use repeatedly, and that can generate income for the business itself. The direction of entrepreneurship in crypto that heyi started advocating since 2018 is now increasingly recognized.

Of course, a good product does not necessarily correspond to a good Token. A project making money does not guarantee that Token Holders will also gain value. However, projects that cannot operate healthily without relying solely on selling Tokens to support their team are ones I keep at a distance. I also cannot compete with the庄.

The fourth category consists of assets with clear revaluation drivers in the future.

This driver may come from AI, U.S. politics and policies, stablecoins, tokenization, global transactions, collateral borrowing, or platforms that can enhance global capital efficiency.

The repricing of asset valuation comes partly from the underlying value of the asset itself and partly from the key factors that require high multiples for pricing (push-up), so the focus remains on the driving force of opportunities. Therefore, apart from the business itself, we also need to consider the concepts of future drivers. This is not much different from the short-term MEME logic.

It is cheap enough today, and there are also very clear reasons to be re-priced tomorrow.

Good odds do not mean risks in Crypto disappear

Even quality Altcoins might fall another 30% or even 50%. The macro environment may deteriorate again, policies may be delayed, ETF funds may flow out again, and a project's fundamentals may change.

However, Volatility and Permanent Loss are not the same thing.

If a project has a strong enough survival ability, the original logic has not been destroyed, and there is a rational upside many times in the future, then the fluctuations in between may be a cost worth bearing.

High payoff does not mean low risk. It means the potential reward increasingly compensates for the remaining risk.

Good odds do not represent no risk. They simply indicate that today’s potential return increasingly compensates for the risk I am taking.

This is not a choice between AI and Crypto

In recent times, many people’s funds and attention have shifted from Crypto to U.S. stocks and AI. This is completely understandable.

AI is creating tremendous productivity and new corporate value, and U.S. stocks still boast some of the world's best assets.

However, seeing one opportunity should not cause us to lose the ability to see another opportunity.

I do not need Crypto to be necessarily better than AI.

I also do not need U.S. stocks to fall for Crypto to rise.

AI is good, U.S. stocks are good, and Crypto can also be good.

Different asset classes can simultaneously have opportunities; they simply offer different prices and payoffs at different times.

I have never felt that investing requires choosing sides.

There is no need to deny the value of U.S. stocks and AI just because I am a Crypto practitioner; nor do I need to suddenly believe that the Crypto industry has nothing worthwhile to invest in just because it has performed poorly for a while.

Investment should only be loyal to opportunity.

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