The market has maintained high fluctuations for two consecutive weeks, with the biggest feature being: **large bearish candlesticks quickly retracing, followed by a slow recovery over time back to high positions.** This rhythm of "sharp decline and slow rise, replacing decline with sideways movement" has repeatedly emerged, indicating that bulls still have strong support, yet the pressure above has not truly been resolved.
Currently, the daily bearish cycle has not fully ended; however, from the candlestick structure, prices have not chosen to significantly retrace, but rather are continuously digesting the adjustment cycle through sideways movement. As long as the 8-hour support is not effectively breached, the larger structure still has resilience for now.
It is important to closely monitor: once the daily adjustment cycle is completed and the cycles below the 12-hour mark start to strengthen simultaneously, we need to guard against forming a round of small cycle bullish resonance. At that time, even if the larger direction still requires a retracement, there may first be a rapid surge in the short term.
Today is also the first trading day of September, and how the monthly line "starts" is very important.
If September first pulls back downwards, releasing risks before attacking again, the monthly line may more easily achieve a healthy bullish structure; if the month begins with a sharp upward surge against resistance, we need to guard against high position profit-taking, forming a high drop or even a shadow on the monthly line.
Yesterday, market fluctuations further compressed, and today has entered a new directional selection window.
On the macro level, the Fed's policy expectations for September remain an important variable hanging over the market, while the upcoming CPI and FOMC meeting will continue to influence the pricing of risk assets. The closer the current position is to the pressure zone, the more we need to pay attention to the sudden increase in trading volume caused by macro news.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Sideways fluctuations, selling high and buying low; do not bet on direction before breaking through.
From the daily structure alone, it still leans towards adjustment logic; however, multiple cycles below 12 hours are undergoing bullish repairs, so short positions cannot be simply chased.
Currently, one trend needs to be guarded against:
Small cycles forming bullish resonance → Rapidly hitting the upper edge of the box → High position momentum decaying → Then re-entering a daily adjustment.
Therefore, even if there is a short-term upward breakout, we must observe whether the trading volume can continue to support it. A breakout without volume still needs to be vigilant against false signals.
Temporarily view BTC as running within a large box around 76999—79200. Before breaking through the boundaries, continue to respond with the strategy of selling high and buying low; only consider following the trend after a breakout with increased volume and stable standing.
Support: 78200, 77555, 76950
Resistance: 78912, 79100-79388
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
Viewpoint: Mainly sideways, focus on ETH/BTC exchange rate anomalies.
ETH currently has not shown a clear direction either, but compared to BTC, greater attention needs to be paid to sudden changes in the exchange rate leading to independent markets.
If ETH/BTC suddenly breaks upward while BTC itself is performing weakly, it may indicate a short-term rotation of funds in the market, allowing ETH to easily experience a rapid surge away from the BTC rhythm.
Although this type of market usually eventually returns to the overall market rhythm, the degree of short-term deviation may be significant, making it particularly susceptible to stop losses or even liquidations in contract trading.
It's also worth noting regarding derivatives: the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has gradually recovered from previous deep negative values. If it quickly turns positive while prices continue to rise, we need to be wary of long positions becoming crowded, which could ultimately lead to a centralized sell-off.
Therefore, it is more suitable to wait for critical positions now rather than chase up and down in the middle of the box.
Support: 2420-2435, 2400
Resistance: 2480, 2500, 2525, 2565
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This article is originally published by 【Huijing Community】, representing only personal views. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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