Written by: Chaoxiang Research

U.S. stocks rebounded across the board on Thursday, with the Nasdaq rising 1.57% to close at 26541.352 points, the S&P 500 up 0.72% to 7730.99 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.20% to 53569.44 points. The VIX reported 14.90, down 1.65%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 2.33% to 11882.17 points, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.43% to 29641.56 points. The core driving force behind the market's rise was the comprehensive rekindling of enthusiasm for AI trading, with Nvidia's stock closing up nearly 9% on the first trading day after its earnings report, leading to an overnight market capitalization increase of nearly 3 trillion yuan; software stocks collectively surged, with Salesforce achieving its best performance in six years. However, U.S. Treasury yields are still on the rise, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.68%. On the same day, three Federal Reserve officials warned that interest rates may still remain accommodative, and inflation pressures still need to be addressed. Tonight's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller at the Jackson Hole annual meeting will be crucial for the market's judgment on the September interest rate path.

Nvidia Leads Tech Stocks, AI Trading Enthusiasm Fully Rekindled

Nvidia was the core driving force in the market on Thursday. The second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion exceeded expectations, with this quarter's guidance breaking the $100 billion mark for the first time, and next year's revenue expected to grow by 70%. On the first trading day after these three data points were announced, funds continued to buy in, leading to a one-day market capitalization increase of about 3 trillion yuan. While the earnings report itself was a pleasant surprise, what truly spurred continued fund inflows was the 70% revenue growth guidance for the next fiscal year, as the demand curve for AI chips has yet to show a turning point.

The chip index rose over 2%, outperforming the market. Marvell Technology announced second-quarter earnings with a 37% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.74 billion, and revenue from its data center business grew 46% to $2.2 billion, with third-quarter revenue guidance of $3.15 billion significantly exceeding expectations. However, Marvell's stock price has already climbed 184% this year, pushing market expectations to extremely high levels, causing shares to fall about 1.7% after hours. The common problem facing the AI hardware chain is the gap between exceeded earnings expectations and stagnant stock prices, where valuations are moving faster than fundamentals.

The seven giants closed higher overnight. Nvidia rose 8.93% to $228.39, Apple gained 0.40%, Microsoft rose 0.15%, Google increased by 0.35%, Amazon rose 1.52%, Meta went up 0.74%, and Tesla gained 1.29%. The seven giants collectively rose about 1.5%, in line with the direction of the Nasdaq.

Software Stocks Explode, Salesforce Achieves Best Performance in Six Years

Aside from AI hardware, the software sector was another independent main theme on Thursday. Salesforce rose nearly 23%, achieving its best performance in six years. The third-quarter guidance exceeded expectations, while also announcing an expanded partnership with Anthropic, effectively dispelling market concerns about the "software apocalypse" theory. Okta rose nearly 30%, and CrowdStrike increased by over 20%, signaling a collective surge in software stocks, with capital flowing simultaneously into AI hardware, application layers, and software services.

Hugging Face launched the "Chinese-made" open-source robot Microduck, priced at $399, standing approximately 25 centimeters tall and weighing less than 800 grams, capable of walking and roller-skating, and able to learn new skills through reinforcement learning. After opening for reservations, a unit was sold every four seconds at one point. Nvidia acquired Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, approximately 80 times its annual revenue valuation, aimed at controlling core nodes in the open-source ecosystem. SoftBank plans to invest $6 billion to gain control over humanoid robot company 1X, as Masayoshi Son designates "physical AI" as SoftBank's next strategic frontier.

The narrative around AI is unfolding simultaneously across three levels: chips, models, and applications, with capital being allocated in all three directions.

Geopolitical Easing Intertwined with Supply Concerns, Oil Prices Rebound but Still Down Over 6% for the Week

Oil prices moved in the opposite direction from the previous trading day. Reports indicated the White House refused to restore the initial cease-fire agreement reached with Iran in June, leading both crude oil and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to hit daily highs. Brent crude oil briefly rose back above $90, gaining nearly 3%, reversing three consecutive days of decline for U.S. oil. WTI crude futures rose 1.58% to $83.53 per barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 2.12% to $89.70 per barrel.

Geopolitical signals are becoming complex. Diplomatic efforts between Iran and Oman are starting to yield results, as shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz have returned to 75% of pre-war levels. However, the White House's refusal to restore the cease-fire agreement has offset some easing expectations. The U.S. is reportedly close to reaching a "large-scale" agreement targeting oil field equity in Venezuela with 90 million barrels of reserves. Brent crude remains down over 6% for the week, reflecting an overall downtrend in geopolitical risk premiums.

The rebound in oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields are interlinked, as the rise in oil prices reignites inflation concerns, further pushing up long-term rates. The macro logic of suppression has not disappeared due to the strength of AI; the two main lines are pulling against each other.

Three Federal Reserve Officials Emit Hawkish Signals, Basant and Federal Reserve Independence under Test

Pressure on interest rates is accumulating synchronously. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is reported at 4.683%, up about 3 basis points during the day; the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is reported at 4.232%, up about 2 basis points during the day.

Three Federal Reserve officials issued hawkish signals on the same day. Kansas City Fed President Schmid stated that current short-term rate levels "may be in an accommodative range," asserting, "We still have work to do." Cleveland Fed President Hammack noted that current rate levels are insufficient to allow inflation to recede on its own, urging policymakers to "take action now." Boston Fed President Collins stated that he would support rate hikes without evidence of continued inflation decline.

"New Federal Reserve News Agency" Nick Timiraos pointed out that Treasury Secretary Basant's intervention in the traditional policy realm of the Federal Reserve through measures like expanding long-term Treasury buybacks and suppressing yields has raised concerns about central bank independence. Basant's timing has been criticized as "price management," creating overlapping pressures with internal rate hike disagreements at the Fed. The Treasury Department's "market rescue" operations and the Fed's rate hike signals are mutually offsetting, presenting the market with contradictory guidance from both sides.

Bitcoin Surges Above $80,000, Ethereum Rises in Tandem

Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 during the day, rising over 3% from its daily low. Ethereum is reported at $2,515, increasing by about 3.3%. Under the dual drivers of enthusiasm for AI trading and a weakening dollar, cryptocurrency assets continue to strengthen.

Spot gold rebounded, rising over 1% at one point. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.25% at $4609.7 per ounce. Gold fluctuated around $4600, with rising U.S. Treasury yields suppressing gold prices, but geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening dollar providing support.

Tonight’s Focus

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will deliver the keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting (10 PM Beijing time on August 28). Three Federal Reserve officials have just issued hawkish signals, and PCE has exceeded expectations. Waller's speech will be the most critical signal before the September FOMC meeting. The market is watching how Waller will respond to Treasury Secretary Basant's intervention in the long-bond market. If Waller emphasizes the independence of the Federal Reserve and suggests further rate hikes are needed to address inflation, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to rise, suppressing technology stock valuations; if Waller discusses economic downturn risks and fiscal constraints more, the market may interpret this as a signal for easing the rate hike path.

The core signal from the overnight U.S. stock market is the full rekindling of enthusiasm for AI trading, but U.S. Treasury yields and the Fed's hawkish signals have not retreated. The independent upward logic of AI and the macro logic of interest rate suppression are both running simultaneously, and who gains the upper hand will depend on the direction of Waller's speech tonight.